NZ Weather of interest

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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby JennyLeez » Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:43 am

This weekend is looking disastrous.

From weatherwatch.co.nz:
A potentially damaging tropical storm is on the horizon for New Zealand as various computer models agree on a similar track and intensity of the predicted low.
Various computer models have been picking this storm for well over a week now but over the past 72 hours they have aligned and that has given us more confidence".
"We still have a few days to go before we can be sure this isn't just the computers over-predicting as they do from time to time, but based on the current data we could expect damaging winds, slips and flooding as a result of this low. The models continue to paint a very serious picture and New Zealanders, especially in the north of the country, should be keeping up to date with the forecasts".
More info here:
Tropical storm may directly hit NZ (+3 maps) | WeatherWatch.co.nz
Map below courtesy of weatherwatch.co.nz

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Maps below courtesy of weatherzone.co.nz
They speak for themselves :(

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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby brayden » Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:56 am

hmm looks like fun times, hopefully it doesn't get too hectic!
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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby Blue Skies » Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:29 pm

I noticed that set up as well and was thinking "there's trouble!".
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby JennyLeez » Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:16 pm

Update from Weatherwatch.co.nz

Tropical Cyclone Lusi has been named today by the Fiji Met Service and currently lies over Vanuatu as a category 1 tropical storm.

Winds are sustained at gale force.

Forecasters expect Lusi to grow into a Cat 3 or 4 cyclone before being technically downgraded before reaching New Zealand waters this Friday/weekend. While the storm will likely lose it's cyclone status before arriving here, it may well still retain Cat 1 or 2 strength.

The exact path of the centre of Lusi is unknown at this early stage for New Zealand but the centre could cross anywhere from Northland to just east of the North Island over the weekend.

With tropical cyclones the severe weather is near the centre - so until we can lock in exactly where the centre will track it makes it hard to pinpoint severe weather risks in NZ. However generally speaking heavy rain could affect northern and eastern areas and severe gales could affect a number of North Island regions

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Above / Saturday morning / ECMWF
Below / Saturday morning / MetOcean
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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby brayden » Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:48 am

Thanks Jenny for the info :)
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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Mar 11, 2014 10:47 pm

New Zealand is some sort of magnet for deep low pressure systems, either with tropical origins or Antarctic.
What do we get on the lower west coast of WA? Nothing.
The smell of rain = distant memory.

Hey good luck on getting a new flag Jenny.
I thnk everyone know's what will be chosen, a Black flag with a silver fern on it.

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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby brayden » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:35 am

Fu Manchu wrote:New Zealand is some sort of magnet for deep low pressure systems, either with tropical origins or Antarctic.
What do we get on the lower west coast of WA? Nothing.
The smell of rain = distant memory.

Hey good luck on getting a new flag Jenny.
I thnk everyone know's what will be chosen, a Black flag with a silver fern on it.


Ah Fu :P

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Jenny, people in Perth are getting more depressed with the lack of rainfall and are envious of other systems around the world lol
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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby JennyLeez » Thu Mar 13, 2014 4:52 am

Update from weatherwatch.co.nz 8.00am

Lusi is now classed as a severe tropical cyclone after reaching the predicted category 3 status overnight according to both JTWC and Fiji Met.

The storm will now travel over open waters towards New Zealand, but will start to weaken before arriving in the upper North Island over the weekend.

Winds are sustained at 120km/h with gusts to 150km/h according to JTWC.

Fiji Met Service says Lusi is expected to intensify further today.

Despite it now being just 48hours out from arriving in northern New Zealand computer models still haven't locked in an exact track for the centre of the low. Various computer models agree the centre of the storm will likely approach Northland on Saturday, they then start to disagree about what happens next.

For example one model tracks Lusi's remains directly down the North Island while another suggests it will slide down the western side of New Zealand - something that doesn't happen too often.

"This might sound like we're splitting hairs but the difference between the center of this low tracking 100kms further west or east can have profound differences to the severe weather over land in New Zealand" says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

Yesterday New Zealand's Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management out of Wellington - which operates under Metservice advice - also launched warnings for the nation, saying this cyclone would likely "track over northern New Zealand on Saturday and Sunday and then track southwards over central New Zealand before moving out to sea east of the South Island on Monday" - which mirrors a similar forecast track by WeatherWatch.co.nz.

MetService says Lusi has the potential to be a "significant event".

WeatherWatch.co.nz maintains that damage is expected for some parts of New Zealand but that forecast needs to be balanced with the fact that larger areas will not be damaged too.

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Update: Lusi shifts her track West 14th March 2014

Postby JennyLeez » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:24 am

As Reported from weatherwatch.co.nz - 7.00am 14th March

Modelling overnight has again shifted the track of Lusi just a little - potentially moving it further west of Northland when it comes in on Saturday, but adding new risks for severe weather into the South Island.

The slight shift west of Northland potentially puts Northland and even parts of northern Auckland a little more in the path of wind - but the further west this system tracks the lower the risks for severe gales or wind damage there should be further east.

Eastern Waikato still faces potentially damaging gusts - but the highest wind peaks may not be as extreme if Lusi's path shifts even just a little further west again.

The worst of the weather is around the centre - the further the centre is away from you the less likely you are to be affecting by severe weather. Tracking where a tropical low will make landfall is like predicting which pin a bowling ball will hit first - and sometimes they can curve away at the last minute. Lusi looks on track to hit NZ - but where it exactly makes landfall is still changing.

As you can see from the threat map below - the further west of Northland Lusi tracks, the less at risk eastern areas are.

However wind and rain are still predicted across a number of regions this weekend - the hardest part to lock down is the exact timing.

But if the severe weather risks are easing for one region - they will be increasing for another. So keep up to date with the latest MetService warnings/watches and severe weather outlooks over the next 72 hours.

Despite some changes in the track over New Zealand there is increasing consistency now that Lusi will slide down the North Island's west coast then track across the central South Island overnight Sunday.

Monday may well see severe gales in eastern parts of the South Island - but one thing the data still agrees on, Lusi's remnants will be clearing the country by Monday morning.

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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby JennyLeez » Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:32 pm

Cyclone Lusi continues to slide south towards New Zealand bringing severe gales and heavy rain.

The low will track down the western side of NZ then cross over the South Island on Sunday night – before leaving the nation on Monday morning.

The rain has began to fall top of NZ with Kerikeri reporting 6.0mm at the time of posting. Wind speed has pick up to gusts of 55km/h but early days yet.
Emergency services have already been sent up top as Lusi tracks in.

Christchurch has only just dried out from massive flooding a couple of weeks ago and it appears Lusi is paying no mind to that as she will via across land Sunday.

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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby Tasman » Fri Mar 14, 2014 6:14 pm

Cyclone Lusi: Storm bears down on NZ

By Teuila Fuatai, Heather McCracken, Rebecca Quilliam, Patrice Dougan, Lydia Anderson
4:19 PM Friday Mar 14, 2014

Cloud is building and skies have started to darken in northern areas of the country as ex Tropical Cyclone Lusi bears ever closer.

Residents have been warned to prepare for the worst, as forecast gales, heavy rain and coastal swells threaten to cause localised flooding, slips, road closures and power cuts.

Full update: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11219244

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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby JennyLeez » Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:06 pm

Update in Brief:
Cyclone Lusi has hit New Zealand with heavy rain and strong winds pelting the top of the country.
The tropical storm has since been downgraded to a depression, but rainfall has been heavier than initial forecasts, while gale-force winds have uprooted trees and cut power to 4500 households.
High tide brought high swells this morning as Lusi surged into Paihia. Huge waves blew debris across the town's waterfront, blocking the main road and flooding the Kingsgate Hotel.

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Northland has borne the brunt of the storm so far, with strong winds and rain lashing the region
A severe weather warning has been issued for most of the North Island and the upper South Island.
"The heavy rain is likely to cause slips and surface flooding, and the severe easterly gales could make driving hazardous, lift roofs, and bring down trees and powerlines," MetService says.
The South Island will be hit on Sunday, with recently-drenched Christchurch potentially in Lusi's path.
Just last week, Christchurch was hit by a one-in-100-year storm, which caused extensive flooding and road closures.
Forecast for tonight and tomorrow from NZ Metservice:
Lusi is expected to be centred about 300km west of Auckland at midnight tonight. The low will then move southwards to cross northern parts of the South Island Sunday evening. Widespread rain and easterly gales, already affecting northern North Island areas, are spreading southwards today. The heaviest falls today are expected about Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty, where 150 to 200mm could accumulate. Heavy rain warnings are also in place for the eastern hills of Northland, the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, as well as the ranges of Hawkes Bay.
For the upper South Island, Marlborough and Nelson look set to receive the most intense rainfall, with 150 to 200mm possible in the ranges of northwest Nelson and 120 to 150mm about the ranges of Marlborough.
Rain warnings have now also been issued for South Canterbury and North Otago during Sunday.
Easterly gales will accompany the heavy rain, with gusts of 120km/h in exposed parts of Northland and Auckland, and 130km/h west of the Kaimai Range.

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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby brayden » Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:40 pm

NZ in for some interesting weather with the left over of Ita. Going by GFS global map the low will intensify as it tracks down towards NZ and sits west of. Looks like the frontal boundary will be huge too!
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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby brayden » Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:47 pm

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 3:31 pm 16-Apr-2014
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FORECAST FOR MANY PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND

A deep low is forecast to move west of the North Island early Thursday and lie slow moving west of central New Zealand through to Friday night before weakening and crossing southern New Zealand late Saturday. Easterly gales are expected to affect many parts of northern and central New Zealand during Thursday, with severe gales for a time about exposed western and central areas from Northland down to Wellington and also about northern and western parts of the South Island. Gusts of 110 to 140 km/h are likely in exposed parts of these areas during Thursday, which have the potential to damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures and make driving hazardous.

A burst of heavy rain is also expected for many parts of the North Island and northern and eastern parts of the South Island. Further significant falls are expected about Nelson, Marlborough, Wellington and Taranaki, especially during Thursday, with 200 to 300mm likely about the ranges and 70 to 100mm about some low lying areas. Warning amounts of rain are also expected about the ranges of Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty during Thursday. People in these areas are advised to watch out for rapidly rising streams and rivers, surface flooding, slips and hazardous driving conditions.

Many other parts of the North Island, including Auckland, are expected to see a brief intense period of rain during Thursday and a watch is in force for these areas.

NOTE: THIS WARNING INCLUDES AN UPDATE FOR THE WELLINGTON REGION ONLY. ALL OTHER AREAS UNCHANGED AT THIS STAGE.
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED
Nelson
FORECAST

Rain is expected to pick up again overnight Wednesday, with heavy falls during Thursday and possibly Friday. In the 21 hours from 3am to midnight Thursday, expected 200 to 300mm about the ranges of northwest Nelson, with 70 to 100mm about some low lying areas. Heaviest falls are expected from late Thursday morning through to Thursday evening, when rates could reach 30 to 50mm per hour about the ranges of northwest Nelson.

FREEZING LEVEL: 3200 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Marlborough, including the Richmond Ranges and the Kaikoura Coast and Ranges
FORECAST

Rain is expected to pick up again early Thursday, with heavy falls through to early Friday morning. In the 21 hours from 6am Thursday to 3am Friday, expected 200 to 300mm about the ranges, with 70 to 100mm about some low lying areas. Heaviest falls are expected during afternoon and evening, when rates could reach 25 to 40mm per hour about the ranges.

FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Taranaki
FORECAST

Further periods of heavy rain are expected about Mt Taranaki through to Thursday evening, although the rain is likely to ease for a time this evening. In the 33 hours from 9am Wednesday to 6pm Thursday, expect a further 200 to 300mm of rain about higher slopes of Mt Taranaki, with 70 to 100mm possible about some lower lying areas.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Wellington
FORECAST

The heaviest rain about Wellington has eased. Although moderate rain is expected this evening, further periods of heavy rain are expected from Thursday morning. In the 18 hours from 6am to midnight Thursday expect 80 to 100mm of rain about the eastern ranges. Peak intensities of 10 to 15mm per hour Thursday afternoon and evening.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty
FORECAST

A period of heavy rain is expected during Thursday. In the 12 hours from 6am to 6pm Thursday, expect 80 to 120mm about the ranges, with 50mm in low lying areas.
STRONG WIND WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED
Northland
FORECAST

Northeast gales are forecast to develop overnight, with severe gales gusting 120 km/h expected in exposed areas between 2am and 10am Thursday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Auckland
FORECAST

Northeast gales are forecast to develop by dawn Thursday, with severe gales gusting 110 km/h expected in exposed areas between 5am and 1pm Thursday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Coromandel Peninsula and eastern Waikato near the Kaimai Range
FORECAST

Easterly gales are forecast to develop early Thursday, with severe gales gusting 120 km/h expected in exposed areas between 6am and 3pm Thursday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
The central North Island High Country and higher parts of Taranaki
FORECAST

Easterly gales are forecast to develop Thursday morning, with severe gales gusting 120 km/h expected in exposed areas between 9am and 6pm Thursday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Manawatu and Horowhenua Kapiti Coast
FORECAST

Easterly gales are forecast to develop late Thursday morning, with severe gales gusting 120 km/h expected in exposed areas between midday and midnight Thursday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Northern Wellington and exposed hill tops and also the Marlborough Sounds
FORECAST

Southeast gales are forecast to develop Thursday morning, with severe gales gusting 120 km/h expected in exposed areas between 9am and 9pm Thursday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Buller and Westland
FORECAST

Southeast gales are forecast to develop Thursday morning, with severe gales gusting 140 km/h expected in exposed areas between 6am and midnight Thursday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Nelson
FORECAST

East to southeast gales are expected in exposed areas during Thursday, with possible gusts of 110 km/h between 6am and 6pm, mainly about higher areas and exposed parts of Golden Bay.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 pm Wednesday 16-Apr-2014

Funded by NZ Government


3 Day Rainfall/Wind Forecast loop http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/ra ... cast-3-day
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Re: NZ Weather of interest

Postby Tasman » Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:59 pm

Data on track for super dry January
5:00 AM Saturday Jan 31, 2015

Has this been the driest January on the books?

Weather watchers will spend the coming days crunching numbers to see if this month's arid conditions break records - a prospect which could be doused by forecast rain for some places this weekend.

If none comes, however, 26 locations including South Auckland and Wellington could pencil in their driest January on record.

Yesterday, stations at Mangere, Wellington Airport, Dannevirke, Hawera and Kerikeri had recorded less than 5 per cent of normal rainfall for January. Whanganui had not seen a drop of rain, the city basking in a month-long dry spell.

Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said the main reason for the unusually low rainfall was more high pressure systems than normal.

The month had been characterised by unusually warm mean maximum temperatures, Mr Brandolino said, but mean minimum temperatures had been "pretty ordinary".


"In other words, the overnight and early morning temperatures have somewhat offset the unusually warm days," he said.

This was due to a lack of cloud and dry ground, allowing heat which built up during the day to escape the earth's surface at night.

The warmest mean temperatures in the North Island this month had been recorded in eastern and northeastern parts of Auckland, northern parts of Coromandel, the Bay of Plenty, and the central and lower North Island.

In the south, much of Canterbury and northern Otago had seen warm mean temperatures.

And according to a climate outlook released by Niwa yesterday, the warm weather would carry on until April.

Temperatures would likely remain in the "above normal" range while soil moisture levels were likely to be near or below normal in the North Island and west of the South Island.

The MetService described January as a "very settled month", but reported that changes in weather patterns this weekend and next week could bring some much-needed rainfall and cooler temperatures.

While it was likely to stay dry at Eden Park today for the NRL Auckland Nines, there was the chance of an isolated shower and a bit of drizzle for eastern parts of Auckland tomorrow.


- NZ Herald http://www.nzherald.co.nz/weather/news/article.cfm?c_id=10&objectid=11394464

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