TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

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TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby davo » Thu Mar 12, 2015 6:30 pm

Thought we should have something here for future reference. I'll leave it to others to fill it...

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby mackerelmauler » Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:18 pm

To my eye it looks like STC Olwyn is a little further west than the predicted path.

Image
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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Kal Barri » Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:39 pm

Woah...Kalbarri is on Blue Alert.

That does look like it's a bit more west, not ideal for us missing the strong winds as it comes down the coast. Oh well, interesting weekend ahead.

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Greggo » Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:02 pm

Thoughts on associated thunderstorms developing ahead of the system tomorrow afternoon/evening through the central west, lower west and wheatbelt? Worth a chase at all?

MetEye seems keen from Friday late morning over a large area.

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby adamD » Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:12 pm

Im currently staying in Mandurah but heading back to Perth Midday tomorrow. Hopefully see some activity develop around midday.
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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby gtrcau » Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:41 pm

Forecast track from BoM a bit more over the coast now, meaning it will take a bit longer for ETT...should be still packing a punch when it comes down the coast and gets here to the Perth region. Very interesting that ECMWF had this pegged since Monday...well done!

EDIT:....sorry, make that LAST Saturday!! :shock: 8)
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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby mackerelmauler » Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:02 pm

It looks like Learmonth radar stop working at 9.40 pm.
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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby 1987 hurricane » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:04 am

It looks like being a very interesting next 36 hours or so. There has been a very slight shift west of the path overnight and that's important as it means more sea track in the journey down to Perth. So it's quite likely now Olwyn will have a cyclone status in the Perth area.

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Pete » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:41 am

Image

She's still packing a punch this morning!

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby schofield12 » Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:32 pm

Latest models showing perhaps at best 20mm of rain as against the previous forecasts of up to 50?

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby chartphred » Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:52 pm

Yair,
I thought it looked like a fairly weak little system, when compared to PAM (about to hit Vanuatu).
Should have blown itself out by the time it gets down Geraldton way.
People argue, Nature acts.

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Pete » Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:53 pm

REMARKS:
An eye remains apparent as TC Olwyn moves along the northern west coast of WA,
and in fact the last two satellite images [2230UTC and 2330UTC] show better
definition than previous images, indicating that some intensification has
occured. The system is also being tracked on radar so confidence in the position
is high. Note that Learmonth radar is still not operational.

Dvorak: Eye analysis using recent EIR imagery has a centre embedded in LG,
yielding DT=5.0. Eye temperature is OW surrounded by black, giving an eye
adjustment of +0.5, but a ragged eye adjusts this back down to a DT of 5.0. This
is consistent with MET. DT=FT=5.0. Intensity is set at at 80 knots [10-min
mean]. Observations from Learmonth AWS of wind gusts to 180 km/h correspond well
with the current intensity estimate of the system, given the intensification
that has occurred since then.

Olwyn is located near the west coast just to the south southwestt of Coral Bay
and is moving south to southwest at around 25 km/h. It is likely to remain close
to the west coast during Friday. The weakening of Olwyn will depend on whether
the system is located over land or further west over the ocean. If the system
does remain over the ocean then wind and storm tide impacts down the west coast
will be significant.

The range of NWP tracks has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the
south over the NEXT 12 hours. After this the system turns to the south southeast
and increases further in speed. Olwyn is likely to undergo ETT due to
interaction with an approaching trough and retain significant wind strength into
higher latitudes. Heavy rain and squally winds are possible over a large part of
Western Australia.

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Pete » Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:56 pm

Image

Image
Direct hit on Perth now as an ET low.

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby davo » Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:05 pm

Have had some spits over the last hour here, but looks like some more serious rain is not too far away (hopefully after school pickup in an hour!). Could get interesting, folks! Ollie looks like being tenacious :) (that is, not willing to let go of its cat 3 status wihtout a fight)

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:22 pm

Sorry for a lack of involvement on this event. Family circumstances are occupying a large amount of my time.

Some confusion seems to be occurring in the public with JTWC data misinterpreted as being official or at least on par with the standards BoM employ.
They derive their data differently.

I have experienced several cyclone events in Perth and this looks like being another.
interesting stuff for sure.
EC model has been right on the money so far.
OzCycloneChasers should be due to post the next update in a few hours.

Things getting a bit messed up in Exmouth and Carnarvon.
Gero will get a bit of a blow too.

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby craigperth » Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:29 pm

Wow cat 3 at carnarvon!! Wow... She has shifted west a bit and now bumping on and off the coast... Showing the low crossing almost directly over Perth... Thankfully no longer a cyclone (who wants the wind!) but the rains we should get are going to be great... Rain is trying to start up in Perth... Mandurah is dead calm, no winds and ocean is a mill pond!
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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Kal Barri » Fri Mar 13, 2015 4:57 pm

Feels pretty oppressive here in the barri. Has been hot and muggy all day, bit of a breeze now to cool things slightly, only 10 - 15 knots. Can see rain about the place, but nothing more than a few fat drops so far, I reckon another hour and it will be wet. By the latest track map looks like we'll have a cat 1, maybe still a 2 over us later tonight. Would prefer it was east of us, but doesn't look like that will happen now it's over the water again. Amazing to see this thing still so intact.

Obs at Shark Bay getting up there: SE 41-62 knots 987.0hPa 54.2mm

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Cyclone Alby » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:14 pm

Cat 2 now
Margaret River

2011 YTD 1056.2 mm
2012 YTD 716.6 mm
2013 YTD 1174.6 mm :)
2014 YTD 840.2mm
2015 YTD 798.8mm

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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby craigperth » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:41 pm

Yeah let the decay begin... Although we are still looking good for some great falls :)
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Re: TC Olwyn - (March 11 2015 onward)

Postby Turbo » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:32 pm

No rain in Gero at all today. Been overcast and hot/humid all day but calm. Great boating weather actually.
Just starting to see some flashes to the north now.

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