TC Gillian

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TC Gillian

Postby davo » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:09 am

Hey thought I'd bring her to everyone's attention. Seems she has slipped in unawares.

She's pumped up significantly overnight to Cat 4! :shock: Wasn't expecting that. She may have some part to play in WA weather this week...

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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Mar 23, 2014 1:41 pm

Was about to comment on this on twitter.
The outflow from her is starting to throw out over parts of WA WestCoast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/gglcontent/sind.gif

Image

Image

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/WWLL ... an_BIG.gif


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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:38 pm

Not much expected to come of the system though.
EC indicating it just wanders off to the west.
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.e&mo ... delType=14

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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:41 pm

This system has been going a very long time.
Can get satellite back to the 10th!
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... 1395568200

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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Blue Skies » Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:11 pm

I remember TC Charlie(?) hanging around for three weeks or so back in the late 1990's so she's got a while to go yet before she breaks any records in that respect.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:51 pm

Anthony Sagliani of Accu Weather posted this image of Gillian.
Image



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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:50 pm

Image
Modis image

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Re: TC Gillian

Postby brayden » Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:00 pm

Pretty impressive for her to go cat 1 to cat 5 in around 36hours hey!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml
Image

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Re: TC Gillian

Postby brayden » Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:35 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Issued at 9:14 am WST Monday 24 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

Image

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian is moving steadily to the south further away from Christmas Island.

Gillian has recently shown signs of weakening and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Monday


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0118 UTC 24/03/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 103.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 937 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W1.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 24/0600: 17.0S 103.6E: 030 [060]: 105 [195]: 942
+12: 24/1200: 17.7S 103.6E: 045 [080]: 095 [175]: 952
+18: 24/1800: 18.4S 103.6E: 055 [105]: 090 [165]: 954
+24: 25/0000: 19.1S 103.7E: 070 [130]: 080 [150]: 963
+36: 25/1200: 20.4S 103.7E: 105 [195]: 065 [120]: 975
+48: 26/0000: 21.1S 103.5E: 145 [270]: 045 [085]: 989
+60: 26/1200: 21.6S 103.1E: 170 [315]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 27/0000: 22.1S 102.4E: 190 [350]: 020 [035]: 1006
+96: 28/0000: 22.8S 100.5E: 240 [445]: :
+120: 29/0000: 22.4S 98.7E: 340 [630]: :
REMARKS:
Analysis position is based on animated IR imagery and microwave imagery at 2311
UTC giving a good fix. An eye has been clearly identifiable in IR throughout the
night and has only just shown signs of filling in. Parallax corrections are
being applied to the apparent postiion on IR.

Subjective Dvorak DT's have dropped to 5.5 over the last 2 hours. Rules are
holding CI at 6.5 for the intial weakening. ADT is in general agreement with
CIMSS version 8.1.5 at a CI of 6.6 for the 2330 UTC image. SATCON is estimating
113 knots 1 minute mean at 2321UTC.

Operational intensity estimate is 110 knots 10-min mean weighted to recent
Dvorak analyses.

CIMMS wind shear analysis is about 22 knots northwesterly shear. Models indicate
this should increase over the next couple of days as the system moves south.
Animated TPW imagery suggests dry air has wrapped around to the north of system.
Cooler SST's lie along the forecast track with temperatures dropping below 26
degrees near 20S. Based on this, a weakening trend is forecast with the system
dropping below tropical cyclone intensity on Wednesday.

The mid-level ridge which has been the dominant steering mechanism is expected
to maintain a southerly track until the 26th when the shearing low-level centre
is expected to follow a more westerly track. There are indications that if the
weakening is not as quick as expected, the system may move southeast on the 26th
before heading back west when it does weaken. At this stage this is considered
unlikely, however the 72 hour uncertainty area reflects this possible
southeasterly motion.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 22.74,1766

Going by the wind model above it looks like at 700 and 500hPa heights Gillian may track a bit SE. Still tends to be a a southerly track. Though once Gillian gets into cooler waters and the jetstream (as shown at 250hPa) it will lose intensity.

All that moisture streaming down from the NW is good :D
Image

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Re: TC Gillian

Postby brayden » Tue Mar 25, 2014 8:51 am

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/s ... an?map=sat

Animation shows the cloud getting blown alot closer to the coast. Would say this has to do with cloud from around 500hPa up.

500hPa level selected

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 24.42,1766

The jet stream (250hPa) is deff. hampering Gillian.
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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:03 pm

She is no more.. Again.
Not the first time a cyclone has stooged us on rain due to a dry layer of air.
Image


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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:04 pm

Some damage occurred with a couple of heritage listed buildings on Christmas Is.


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Re: TC Gillian

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:08 pm

For those quick enough, check this stream of moisture flowing into her from the west. She just had an injection back into what was left and boom for a short while.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/gglcontent/sind.gif


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