Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:13 am

The Gulf low doesn't seem to be much of a feature in the models yet it's considered worth a mention on TV news.


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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:13 am

Models have the cyclone coming down the west coast.

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:30 am

Today's InfraRed Sat image of the Indian Ocean Image


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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Cyclone Alby » Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:18 pm

So could happen with that extra tropical low, would it somehow interact with that monsoonal low up north and pull it down along the coast :?:

Would be good to keep checking the models to what its gonna do this week
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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby brayden » Mon Jan 23, 2012 2:49 pm

Will be good to see what the monsoon does later this week. Keep on eye on 28storms site over the next few days
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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 23, 2012 6:21 pm

The following is via ABC Northwest today:
http://www.abc.net.au/local/audio/2012/ ... orthwestwa

Twin tropical lows could combine to form monster cyclone system, Bureau

A low pressure system north of Karratha and north east of Broome has a high chance of forming a cyclone on Wednesday. But it's fighting for supremacy with another tropical low, further out in the Indian Ocean. Andrew Burton from the Bureau of Meteorology says there are three possible outcomes.
We could see two cyclones form, but if they are too close to each other, they'll either suppress each other or merge to form one large system.
"They'll either try to destroy each other or they'll wrap up and become one big monster system" said Mr Burton.
A lot of rain is expected to be associated with this system. If it crosses the coast at Karratha, it could cause heavy rains as far away as Derby. It is also expected to generate a large swell that will affect the North West Coast.
Another tropical low is developing north of Arnhem Land. The Bureau says there is a moderate chance that this system will become a cyclone this Wednesday. It's possible that it could track west and could bring wind and rain to the East Kimberley.
Stay tuned to ABC Kimberley for further updates.




IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:11pm WST on Monday the 23rd of January 2012
Valid until midnight WST Thursday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
An active monsoon trough lies between 12S 90E and 14S 125E. The trough is
expected to intensify over the next couple of days and by Wednesday it is likely
to be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the
Indonesian archipelago, including Christmas Island.

One or two significant lows are likely to develop in the monsoon trough between
longitudes 100E and 115E and a tropical cyclone may form as early as Wednesday.
At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be
directly affected, but there is an elevated risk of a cyclone impact later in
the week.

People in the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to keep up to date
with weather forecasts.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High



NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Cyclone Alby » Mon Jan 23, 2012 6:32 pm

Cheers fu i'll listen to that audio interview later tonight :)
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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:08 am

Possibility of twin cyclones. The last time we had that was March 2007 with TC George and TC Jacob.Image
So could be TC Iggy and TC Jasmine
Or Iggy goes pop and gets medieval on the NW.


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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby lykeeze » Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:53 am

Tc george was cat 5 when it made land? brother was in a donga when the eye passed over him port hedland.. he called me about.that time i think a little scared..

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:55 am

Bureau says moderate chance of cyclone:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/bure ... lone/20102

By Kristy O'Brien, Monday January 23, 2012

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a moderate chance a cyclone will develop off the Northern Territory coast on Wednesday or Thursday.

A tropical low is sitting 120 kilometres north of Maningrida and is expected to move slowly west to southwest, gradually deepening in the next few days.

Senior Forecaster Angeline Prasad says heavy falls are expected today and there's a chance of damaging wind gusts off the North Coast.

"It's slowly ramping up, we've got good convection near McClure Island and Goulbourn island and winds are starting to pick up as well over the North Coastal waters," Ms Prasad said.

"So we're expecting ... about 15 to 20 knots today, possibly increasing to 25 knots off shore."

- ABC 2012

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 24, 2012 2:17 pm

The latest brief via: 28 cyclones
http://28storms.com/cyclone/?p=386


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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Tue Jan 24, 2012 3:05 pm

Bureau monitors cyclone potential:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/bure ... tial/20133

Tuesday January 24, 2012

The Bureau of Meteorology is monitoring two tropical lows located off Western Australia's north-west coast, which could form into cyclones by Australia Day.

A monsoonal trough sitting off the Pilbara is bringing the lows closer to the WA coast.

Forecaster Andrew Burton says the lows are likely to bring heavy rains and strong winds later in the week.

"They're going to sort of battle it out to form into a tropical cyclone and it'll be where that ends up happening and it's interaction with the other low developing near Darwin that will govern what happens this week," he said.


- ABC

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Tue Jan 24, 2012 3:07 pm

Monsoon strenghtens across the NT:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/mons ... e-nt/20132

Alex Zadnik, Tuesday January 24, 2012

The monsoon trough is strengthening over the north of the Australian continent, bringing an increase in winds, seas and rainfall to the Top End coast.

The northern coast of the Top End has seen progressively heavier falls over recent days, with the strengthening of the monsoon trough and the formation of a low pressure centre along this trough-line. Pirlangimpi on Melville Island has been one of the wettest spots, with 81mm falling in the past 24-hours and 152.8mm in total over the last three days.

The low pressure centre mentioned earlier is currently located close to Cape Don but is rated at less than a 50% chance of reaching tropical cyclone strength during the next three days. However, a 'Severe Weather Warning' has been issued for northern parts of the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem districts due to the risk of further heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to the strengthening monsoon. Additionally, there is the risk of damaging wind gusts of close to 90km/h in both districts, particularly along the north coast and through the Tiwi Islands.

Strengthening northwest winds across the Arafura Sea are expected to whip up large waves along the coast between Cape Don and Groote Eylandt from today. Abnormally high tides can also be expected along this stretch, due to the combination of strong winds blowing onto the coast and lower than usual atmospheric pressure associated with the monsoon trough and low.

There is an expectation that the monsoon trough will slip further south over the weekend and weaken a little in the vicinity of the Top End, helping winds to back off a notch. However, moderate to heavy rainfall will still be possible due to a humid flow of winds from the northwest.

The monsoon by definition is a seasonal reversal of winds, with moisture-laden northwest winds replacing the drier southeasterly winds seen in the winter months (in the Australian context). The monsoon 'trough' is a region where these humid northwest winds converge with the southeast trade winds located further south over the Australian continent. It is also usually a region where heavier rains and stronger winds are found, as we are seeing at present.

- Weatherzone

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby lykeeze » Tue Jan 24, 2012 6:28 pm

never seen so much cloud up the top of australia before

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:14 pm

That post about the expected development is pretty much what has already been posted before.


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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:38 pm

Possibility of monsoonal development becoming more lively next week.
Heads up my peeps.
Check the weather models.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Blue Skies » Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:14 am

Hmm, really? I can only see a cyclone for the far west around Christmas Island area. What am I missing?
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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:36 am

Models starting to line up with a cyclone developing later in the week and approaching the coast early next week.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Wed Mar 07, 2012 1:15 pm

Cyclone risk to increase for northwest tropics:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cycl ... pics/20923

Douglas Fenton, Wednesday March 7, 2012

An active monsoon will bring an increased risk of cyclone activity to the country's northwest over the coming two weeks.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is characterised by an eastward moving pulse of cloud and rain near the equator that typically recurs every one to two months (Bureau of Meteorology).

The MJO is currently located in the far eastern Indian Ocean. With the MJO approaching the Australian region and a developing monsoon, the risk of cyclone activity and above average rainfall will increase over northern Australia over the next two weeks (BoM).

There is the potential for two low pressure systems to intensify into tropical cyclones to the south of Indonesia over the coming week. A low pressure system over the Indian Ocean well to the west of the Pilbara coast, is rated as a high chance of intensifying into a tropical cyclone on Thursday.

A second low is located closer to the coastline and is currently rated at a moderate risk (20-50% chance) of intensifying into a cyclone on Friday, with the risk likely to increase further over the weekend.

Models currently indicate that these systems will keep the heaviest rain and strongest winds off the coast in the coming week. However, there is a good chance that the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts will receive areas of heavy rain and strong winds from the weekend.

- Weatherzone

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Mon Mar 12, 2012 1:00 pm

Cyclone watch declared for parts of Top End:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cycl ... -end/21008

Bridget Brennan, Monday March 12, 2012

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a cyclone watch over parts of the Top End. -

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a cyclone watch for parts of the Top End.

Areas from Cape Hotham and stretching west to Kalumburu in Western Australia are on cyclone watch, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A tropical low in the Timor Sea north of the Tiwi Islands is expected to deepen as it moves slowly west to south-west.

The bureau's regional director Andrew Tupper says there's a high chance of a cyclone developing on Wednesday.

"This low that we've been watching it is still drifting westwards," he said.

"But it's intensifying and it may turn to move more to the south-east in the middle of the week.

"There's enough chance of it becoming a cyclone for us to be putting out a cyclone watch."

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