Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Lert » Sat Dec 24, 2011 6:43 pm

Just got another cyclone warning by landline.. ?? Maybe I'm registered for something I've forgotten about.
2006 - 543.5mm, 2007 - 701.5mm, 2008 - 833.5mm, 2009 - 579mm, 2010 - 631.5mm, 2011 - 872.5mm, 2012 - 770mm

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby 28storms » Sun Dec 25, 2011 5:10 am

Cyclone Grant poised to strike the Top End http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... iJS3mjDHhk

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Sun Dec 25, 2011 5:58 am

Cyclone Grant forms off Top End coast:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cycl ... oast/19732

Sunday December 25, 2011

A tropical cyclone off the Northern Territory coast is expected hit the mainland later today.

A tropical low that has been hovering over the Arafura Sea since Wednesday was upgraded to a category one cyclone this morning.

Tropical Cyclone Grant is 260 kilometres north-east of Darwin and is expected to hit the Coburg Peninsula today.

Senior meteorologist Grant Elliot says the cyclone will then move into Van Diemen Gulf, before developing into a category two cyclone and crossing the coast east of Darwin tomorrow.

"[It will] slide in over the Top End and bring some wet and windy conditions, and certainly some heavy rain as well," he said.

The warning centre says Darwin may experience gales tomorrow as the edge of the cyclone passes east of the city.

Residents living north of Darwin from Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, are being advised to take shelter.

A cyclone watch continues from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and inland to Jabiru in Kakadu National Park.

The weather bureau is predicting it to bring wind gusts of 110 kilometres per hour to Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi islands, Cape Don and Croker Island.

Territory coastal communities have been preparing for an impending cyclone for several days.

- ABC

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Sun Dec 25, 2011 12:58 pm

Top End communities feeling Grant's fury:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/top- ... fury/19735

Sunday December 25, 2011 - 15:26 EDT

Residents in remote parts of the Northern Territory are being thrashed by gale-force winds as Tropical Cyclone Grant tracks away from Darwin.

The Coburg Peninsula and Croker Island, north-east of Darwin, are experiencing heavy rain and winds of 110 kilometres an hour, with gusts expected to increase to 130kph as the cyclone moves closer.



Weather Services assistant director Alasdair Hainsworth says the cyclone was heading towards Point Stuart, just east of Darwin, but it is now tracking closer to Kakadu National Park.

"It's putting the centre's of Oenpelli and Jabiru perhaps more in the frame for some fairly significant winds and rainfall," he said.

At the moment cyclone Grant is over the Arafura Sea and is expected to cross the mainland for the first time at the Coburg Peninsula early tomorrow.

The cyclone is predicted to continue moving south into the Van Dieman Gulf, before hitting near Kakadu National Park tomorrow night.

Are you spending Christmas in a cyclone affected area?

Residents living north of Darwin from Goulburn Island to Snake Bay are being advised to take shelter now.

Cyclone shelters have opened in remote communities in the cyclone's path.


Christmas drama

Lex Martin is working at the power station on Croker Island and says residents are taking precautions.

"The Police have got the situation pretty well in hand and keeping a close eye on things," he said.

Sergeant Geoff Pickering is on the island and says residents are being encouraged to come to the community shelter.

"We have opened up our cyclone shelter and we are canvassing all the locals to try and encourage them to come in"

The manager of a resort on the Coburg Peninsula, David Gyles, says his staff and guests are well prepared.

He says they have had their Christmas lunch and are now battening down.

"We're following our own procedures and we take it quite seriously, but for people this is an experience, and we're not in panic mode or anything like that."

The system developed into a category one cyclone early this morning after hovering as a tropical low over the Arafura Sea since Wednesday.

Territory coastal communities have been preparing for an impending cyclone for several days.

NT police are warning people in the areas expected to be hit by the cyclone to decide early where they are going to shelter and not to try to drive once the weather turns bad.

- ABC

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:07 pm

NT cyclone watch cancelled as Cape York is warned:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/nt-c ... rned/19788

Wednesday December 28, 2011

A cyclone watch covering parts of Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory has been cancelled as ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant continues to move east.

Nhulunbuy to Numbulwar and Groote Eylandt had been placed on watch.

Gales are no longer forecast for the areas but heavy rain may cause local flooding.

The focus now moves to Queensland, where an area stretching from the Gilbert River Mouth to Thursday Island is now on cyclone watch.

The low pressure system has the potential to redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or on Friday.

2011

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:09 pm

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant update:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/ex-t ... ate-/19783

Douglas Fenton, Wednesday December 28, 2011

Tropical Cyclone Grant has been downgraded to a tropical low, however it is still bringing flooding rain and strong winds.

The heaviest falls in the 24 hours to 9am were about exposed coastal parts of the Roper-McArthur district. Centre Island picked up 146mm to 9am, the highest December daily total in at least 42 years. Nearby Bing Bong gained a hefty 112mm in the gauge. Winds have also been strong at times about the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts, gusting to 78km/h at Cape Wessel just before midday on Wednesday.

A Cyclone Watch has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland. The Cyclone Watch from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory has now been cancelled.

At 9:30am CST on Wednesday the tropical low was estimated to be 140km west of Alyangula (northeastern NT Top End) and moving slowly east at 7km/h. The system is expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria later on Wednesday or overnight.

As the tropical low moves over water it is likely to intensify, because cyclones are fueled by rising warm moist air i.e. over tropical waters. Current forecast maps indicate that the system will be upgraded to a category 1 cyclone on Friday morning, just before it reaches the Cape York Peninsula.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts of the NT today and Thursday. Heavy rain potentially leading to flooding is expected over the QLD Cape York Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country on Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

For the latest updates be sure to check weatherzone.com.au

- Weatherzone

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:12 pm

Cyclone predicted to reform in Queensland's Gulf:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cycl ... gulf/19769

By Kerrin Binnie, Wednesday December 28, 2011

The weather bureau predicts ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant may redevelop when it moves into Queensland's Gulf Country.

Forecaster Gavin Holcombe says the system is moving east and could cross the Queensland coast.

He says it is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain over Cape York Peninsula and the north Tropical Coast.

"It's still over the top end of the Northern Territory," he said.

"It'll move into the western Gulf later in the day and move slowly across the Gulf area and probably move onto the western Cape York Peninsula area as a low category one system maybe late on Friday."

- ABC

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:04 pm

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant approaches Cape York:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/ex-t ... york/19808

Ben Domensino, Thursday December 29, 2011

Parts of the Cape York Peninsula have seen the heaviest December rain in years as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant approaches.

The monsoon low, which has remained below tropical cyclone strength since Monday, is now moving eastwards across the Gulf Of Carpentaria.

The latest computer models indicate that this system is not expected to redevelop into a Cyclone and will cross the Queensland coast near Cape Keer-Weer early on Friday morning.

After days of drenching rain over the Northern Territory's Top End, the heaviest falls moved into the Gulf on Wednesday. As these falls were dragged east by the low, rain intensified over the Cape York Peninsula as the system approached.

Western parts of the Peninsula saw the fist of the approaching heavy rain from Wednesday night. Kowanyama received 70mm in the 24 hours to 9am Thursday, their heaviest rain since March and wettest December day in four years. The heaviest falls this morning were in and around Weipa, which collected 50mm.

Heavy rainfall and damaging winds will remain a threat across the Peninsula on Thursday and Friday, with abnormally high tides expected to develop for coastal areas.

Thankfully, the low will continue moving in an easterly direction allowing the heavy falls to contract away from the coast on Saturday.

The system will then move further into the Coral Sea before breaking up into next week.

- Weatherzone

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:05 pm

Cape York cyclone watch cancelled:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cape ... lled/19805

By Brad Ryan, Thursday December 29, 2011

The weather bureau has cancelled a Cyclone Watch for Queensland's western Cape York.

The bureau says ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is moving faster than anticipated and is unlikely to reform before crossing the coast early tomorrow.

The cyclone watch for Thursday Island to the Gilbert River Mouth has been cancelled.

But a severe weather warning has been issued for heavy rain, damaging wind and abnormally high tides for areas north of Karumba to Cardwell.

Cairns-based forecaster Bill O'Connor says the system is picking up speed and will probably cross the coast early tomorrow morning.

"The chance of it actually developing into a tropical cyclone is starting to diminish a little bit - it probably won't quite fit into the category of a category one cyclone," he said.

"It's still going to be an extremely deep tropical low, making its way across that Gulf, and at the moment it looks like it will probably be a little bit quicker than we had been anticipating."

He says the system could still cause flooding.

"Ahead of it, we still will have gales or very strong winds getting onto especially that very northern part of the western side of the Peninsula, north of I suppose Cape Keerweer, with the north-westerly flow of that monsoonal flow pushing on to that part of the Cape, so we've still got those severe weather warnings out," he said.

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) says the tropical low off Queensland's west coast is not cause for major concern.

EMQ director for the far north, Wayne Coutts, says people are well prepared.

"Most of those communities in the Cape are very, very resilient," he said.

"[They] are quite used to the weather and are already cut off in the wet season now anyway, so they can't really drive out of the community.

"The more rain that comes through probably won't affect them all that much."

- ABC

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:55 pm

Grant unlikely to form again thanks to unfavorable shear.
http://28storms.com/cyclone/

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:59 pm

The latest video update from 28Cyclones
http://28storms.com/cyclone/?p=353

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Fri Jan 06, 2012 10:52 am

Keeping an eye on this system.
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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:06 pm

Interesting Pete, I was racing through viewing a heap of stuff this morning, I did notice that and briefly kept flicking through other charts.
I'll be paying more attention to it now :D

Let's see what 28Cyclones says as well. They'd be onto it soon enough.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:13 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:06pm WST on Monday the 9th of January 2012
Valid until midnight WST Thursday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is strengthening over tropical waters to the north of the
state, and a weak tropical low is starting to form near 12S 118E. The low is
likely to move steadily southwards and approach the Pilbara coast over the next
few days. If the low remains over the ocean, there is a chance it could develop
into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday or on Thursday, although it is more
likely to remain below cyclone intensity. However, regardless of whether the low
develops into a tropical cyclone, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase
over the central and eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley over the next few
days, with some heavy rainfall and squally conditions likely.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :Moderate

Another tropical low may develop along the monsoon trough near 10S 105E on
Tuesday. It is expected to move eastwards and remain weak through the outlook
period.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :Low
Thursday :Low

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:55 pm

A few days ago 28cyclones was featuring one model run suggesting this low to come close as BoM are also suggesting. It also featured a second low to the NW likely to approach the Pilbara coast which would be likely to get organised.

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:56 pm

I wonder what influence the west coast trough has on the ability of the low to get the required convection and instability together to get active.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Thu Jan 19, 2012 9:11 am

I know its a long way out, but the monsoon trough is showing definite signs of strengthening, due to an usually strong high over Europe sitting further south than normal so the NE'ly gradient blowing across the equator will be quite strong, so there's signs of increased monsoonal activity over northern Australia, particularly the western half. Models are lining up for a large cyclone to develop during next week, just where we'll have to wait and see.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Cyclone Alby » Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:30 pm

Yeah i had look at the sst's map as well...pretty warm waters up there and also warmer than usual around the southwest of wa as well.

even last year around this time was very simliar in terms of sst's
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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:45 pm

Tropical cyclone outlook:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/trop ... ook-/20088

Douglas Fenton, Sunday January 22, 2012

The monsoon trough is strengthening, bringing an increased risk of cyclone activity to Australian waters.

Currently located over the northern parts of WA and the NT, the monsoon trough is a region of high moisture and instability that commonly spawns low pressure systems. These lows then have the potential to produce heavy rain and squally winds and occasionally grow into tropical cyclones.

There is a moderate to high chance of at least one tropical cyclone developing in Australian waters this week. The most likely location is over northwest waters, with northern waters also at significant risk.

A weak low pressure system has formed over waters in the northwest Gulf of Carpentaria. This low is currently expected to move west towards the Timor Sea and may intensify. This system is rated as having a 20-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Another low pressure system over northwest waters is even more likely to intensify into a tropical cyclone. This system has the potential to track over the Kimberley or Pilbara coast bringing another bout of heavy rain and squally winds, following Tropical Cyclone Heidi's visit earlier this month.

Check weatherzone.com.au for the latest updates.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:20 pm

Latest U.S 8 day GFS run
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