Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Wed Dec 21, 2011 12:21 pm

Cyclonic swells brew for the coastlines of NSW and southeast QLD:

The coastlines of southeast Queensland and New South Wales are set to be pounded by huge swells during the Christmas-New Years Eve period, with hazardous conditions likely for summer holiday activities such as swimming, surfing, fishing and boating.

A tropical low is currently lurking over the Coral Sea and is expected to deepen into a Tropical Cyclone for a brief period before the weekend. This system is not expected to make a coastal crossing but it is increasingly likely that it will be a significant generator of swell for the east coast of Australia.

Even if the low does not reach Tropical Cyclone strength initially, it is expected to intensify during Friday and Saturday as it tracks south and morphs into a 'hybrid' mid-latitude system. This low will display characteristics of a tropical cyclone as it moves south over the Coral Sea (gale-force winds, heavy rain and huge seas), but the mechanism driving its intensification will share more in common with the low pressure systems seen off the NSW coast in early winter (that mechanism being the approach of colder air from the west, rather than latent heat release from humid air located over the warm tropical seas).

The expectation is for a broad swathe of gale to storm force easterly winds (40-50 knots) to form on the southern side of the intensifying low as it pushes up against a large high pressure system over Tasmania through Friday night and Saturday. This will send huge swells towards the exposed coastlines of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales.

The likely arrival time for the huge waves is either late on Christmas Day or early on Boxing Day morning for southeast Queensland and northern NSW. It will take another day or so for these powerful swells to spread south to Sydney.

It is likely that wave heights will reach the 3-4 metre range in southeast Queensland by Boxing Day, creating dangerous conditions for pretty much all marine activities. Beach erosion may also be a significant factor, with a large astronomical high tide of 1.76 metres forecast for 9:23am on Boxing Day morning. The combination of large swells, lower than usual atmospheric pressure and winds blowing onto the land from the sea should all contribute to the actual tide going higher than this predicted figure, adding to the likelihood
of erosion.

Weatherzone will be tracking this developing low closely over coming days, along with another tropical low that is taking shape near the Top End of the Northern Territory. This low near the Northern Territory also poses a threat of cyclone development towards Christmas Day, although computer model guidance on how this will unfold remains unclear.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby merk » Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:40 pm

hey all...so reading this thread, us folks in Ringer Soak, could be having some interesting times ahead?

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Perth Weather Live » Wed Dec 21, 2011 2:39 pm

Cyclone Watch For Darwin issued.. BOM Updates coming shortly

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 21, 2011 4:18 pm

Could you guys post some of the US navy charts for us where you can? Pretty please:) I'm busier than a one legged man in a bum kicking competition.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Wed Dec 21, 2011 6:45 pm

Top End battens down as cyclone watch declared:

The weather bureau has issued a cyclone watch alert for the Top End of the Northern Territory.

A watch was declared at 5pm (CST) for coastal areas stretching from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin.

The bureau says gale force winds could develop in the next 48 hours.

Senior Forecaster Andrew Tupper says a monsoon trough is developing about 300 kilometres north-north-east of Darwin in the Arafura Sea.

"It is virtually certain that that low is going to stay out over water," he said.

"When it stays out over water, that is a very favourable environment for cyclone formation.

"What is not certain is where it will go after that.

"It is likely, very likely that a cyclone will form but we do not know if it will go west or east or south."


Airport prepares:

Meanwhile, the Northern Territory Airports group says it has a committee preparing to deal with passengers who may have their Christmas travel plans disrupted by the possible cyclone.

Darwin airport director of services Jim Parashos says if some flights have to be cancelled there are not a lot of free places on other planes.

He says many flights out of Darwin are already booked at 85 per cent capacity, but there is not a stampede to get out of the city.

The heavy bookings are mostly connected to Christmas travel.

"We will work with our airline customers as the weather develops to assess what we will do going forward," he said.

"There are not many seats available, so it is not that straightforward.

"I think most of the locals have been through this before, so I think they will take a wait-and-see approach."

Be ready

The weather bureau says it is trying to better prepare people for a possible cyclone than they were for Cyclone Carlos in February.

Cyclone Carlos quickly formed over Darwin and there was confusion among many government workers about whether they should immediately go home or stay at work.

In the ensuing storm, more than 400 millimetres of rain fell on the city overnight and houses were flooded.

Trees and powerlines were brought down and emergency services crews received more than 2,000 calls for help.

Forecaster Angeline Prasad says people should be taking precautions well in advance of the threatening weather this time.

"We are trying not to have a repeat of the Carlos situation, which is why we have let the public know quite early on that there is potential for a cyclone by the end of the week," she said.

NT Emergency Services director Peter Davies says people in the Top End should not wait for a cyclone watch to be declared to get prepared.

"If a cyclone watch is declared, the stores empty," he said.

"So if you haven't got your three days' worth of stuff to look after yourself in a cyclone then you really need to go and get it now."

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby 28storms » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:00 pm

Fu Manchu wrote:What you are offering is totally unique in the world. It also makes meteorology an easier "thing" to understand and demystifies the science a little.

We at TheWAWG take the direction of making weather something to share and talk about regardless of met knowhow or skills.

There is an element in US, Canadian and Australian weather enthusiast communities of an elitist attitude. It's not a pissing competition like many treat it. Over all that attitude only serves to exclude people wanting to learn and perpetuates public naivety about weather.

Blah blah blah :lol: in the end you're doing something wonderful mate. Giving opportunity for everyday people to gain a better appreciation of the weather around them and the complexities faced by Meteorologists around the world.

Now back to our regular transmission...


Wow, thanks for the enthusiastic compliment! :D

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Lert » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:29 pm

Not sure where the best place to post this.. but, the missus just took a landline call which was a recorded cyclone warning for N. Queensland. No idea what that was about or how whoever had our home number.. Any ideas??
2006 - 543.5mm, 2007 - 701.5mm, 2008 - 833.5mm, 2009 - 579mm, 2010 - 631.5mm, 2011 - 872.5mm, 2012 - 770mm

2013 Jan 5mm YTD 5mm

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:11 pm

Fu Manchu wrote:Could you guys post some of the US navy charts for us where you can? Pretty please:) I'm busier than a one legged man in a bum kicking competition.


Not sure which ones you mean. :?

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:53 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
Image

(on pc now so all good.)
It is a safe website. It is a public access military site.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:03 pm


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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:43 pm

#28Cyclones has posted their explanations for today:
Tropical Cyclones Fina and Grant likely in coming days.
http://28storms.com/cyclone/?p=308

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:48 pm

Image

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:49 pm

Thanks to the XweatherLive guys in the Darwins for tweeting that pic earlier today.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby 28storms » Thu Dec 22, 2011 7:00 am

New video on Fina and the developing Tropical Low near Darwin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rM2k7pQJnns

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:42 am

Calm before storm as Top End braces for cyclone:

The Top End is preparing for a cyclone to develop off the Northern Territory coast on Saturday.

The weather bureau says a tropical low in the Arafura Sea north-east of Darwin is likely to become a Category One cyclone early on Saturday morning.

The bureau says seas around the Top End of Australia are the warmest in the world at the moment, creating the perfect conditions for a cyclone to form.

A cyclone watch has been declared across most of the Territory coastline.

Emergency Services director Peter Davies says authorities are working to warn people in remote communities to prepare.

"What we will be doing right now is talking to all the police across the Top End so that they can warn their communities," he said.

Residents are being told to stock up on food, water and medicine today.

The weather bureau says the cyclone watch stretches from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

Police at a remote Territory community that got a battering by a cyclone in 2005 say people are well prepared this time.

Croker Island is is not far from where a cyclone is expected to form and local police Sergeant Jeff Pickering says the people are ready for it.

"We have completed all of our essential clean-up," he said.

"Everyone is aware of the state of where things are.

"We have got a brand new cyclone shelter here so, yeah, everything is in readiness if it does eventuate."

Tiwi Islands chief executive Alan Hudson says the communities north of Darwin are preparing for a possible cyclone.

"Most of the houses on the islands, and particularly the new houses, are cyclone rated," he said.

"We do accommodate some people in our office complex but ... most people know which houses are cyclone rated and that is where they gravitate to."

Northern Territory insurance company TIO says it has stopped accepting new requests for insurance cover after the declaration of a cyclone watch.

General manager Michael Hoare says the cut-off was last night.

"We go into a standard procedure which means that we cease writing business for the areas that are impacted by a cyclone," he said.

"Our (existing) customers who are with us through periods where there are cyclones, it is there to protect them and also protect us as a company."

Royal Darwin Hospital pharmacy director Bhavini Patel says it is important that people have emergency medicines with them in case they are cut off during a cyclone.

"If you are popping to the pharmacy, then make sure you have also got a basic first aid kit because if a cyclone does hit then sometimes it could be a couple of days before emergency services could reach you."

Vicki O'Halloran from Somerville Community Services in Darwin says her organisation is making sure it is prepared if disabled people have to be moved to evacuation centres.

"It is quite a major exercise for our organisation to move all of those people, which means, for us, probably at least 100 volunteers," she said.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:48 am

Sea surface temperatures around the NT and near the Gulf of Carpentaria are around 28 - 30C atm. Some areas even above 30C.

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby mackerelmauler » Fri Dec 23, 2011 6:53 am

Latest advice now has the cyclone not reaching cat 1 until 4.00am Christmas Day.

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:01 am CST Friday 23 December 2011. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 7.

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.gif?1324582334211


This means of course that Satan will be able to make it into Darwin.
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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Fri Dec 23, 2011 5:07 pm

Alert level raised for cyclone-threatened NT:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/aler ... d-nt/19722

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning for some areas along the Northern Territory coast, as a tropical low threatens to worsen by Christmas Day.

The bureau says areas from Cape Don to Milingimbi are on a cyclone warning, while a cyclone watch remains in place for most other parts of the Top End, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

Bureau director Andrew Tupper says it is predicted a tropical low north of Darwin will become Cyclone Grant on Saturday evening or on Christmas morning.

"So it's not a cyclone yet but it's much further down the development path," he said.

"We may have gales within 48 hours anywhere between Dundee Beach and Nhulunbuy, but we've added a warning which means we may see gales within 24 hours from Cape Don to Milingimbi.

"As I say, we could have a cyclone develop within 24 hours based on what's now happening with the system."

Earlier, the weather bureau said the low had done a U-turn and was was tracking moving towards Croker Island and Arnhem Land, north-east of Darwin.

It had previously been moving west towards Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.



Emergency Services director Peter Davies says the system could batter small remote communities along the Top End coastline.

"If it does come close to the coast where it is now, we're going to get a lot of rain and probably wind," he said.

Mr Davies says communities could be cut off if a cyclone hits.

Police Sergeant Geoff Pickering, who is responsible for the 280 people at Minjilang on Croker Island, says preparations have been ongoing since a cyclone watch was declared two days ago.

"Now we've re-advised the community of the change in the direction," he said.

Mr Davies says cyclone shelters will now be open to the public in areas a cyclone warning has been issued.

"We've been watching this low for quite some time, so the cyclone shelters are all there and ready to go," he said.

- ABC

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby 28storms » Sat Dec 24, 2011 5:22 pm


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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Sat Dec 24, 2011 5:58 pm

Darwin on alert as cyclone develops offshore:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/darw ... hore/19730

Darwin residents are bracing for wild weather on Christmas Day as a cyclone heads toward the Top End coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded Darwin from a cyclone watch to a cyclone warning.

It is predicting a tropical low off the Top End coast will develop into a cyclone around 7:00am ACST.

A category one or category two cyclone is likely to make landfall around Point Stuart, 200 kilometres from Darwin, on Monday.

The bureau's regional director, Andrew Tupper, says Darwin can still expect some wild conditions on Sunday night.

"As the cyclone approaches the coast on Boxing Day, gale force winds would be expected to develop around the coast," he said.

"We are reasonably confident that the cyclone will pass to the east of Darwin."


On alert

NT Chief Minister Paul Henderson is advising people to be where they need to be by 6:00pm on Sunday.

"We don't want people travelling around in potentially gale force winds," he said.

And Police Commissioner John McRoberts says by now Darwin residents should have completed their cyclone preparations.

"I urge everybody in the affected warning area to carefully consider which public shelter you will go to," he said.

The weather bureau will advise when it is time to move to public emergency shelters.

Homeless shelters in Darwin are expected to open at lunchtime tomorrow.

The cyclone warning covers areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin.

Coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and inland to Jabiru remain on cyclone watch.

Alistair King from The Arnhem Land Progress Association, which runs stores in remote Northern Territory communities, says they have enough supplies to last for weeks if towns are cut off.

"Many of them have been through it before and they know that preparation is the key," he said.

"They're listening to the news, and they're doing as they're told and they're taking it seriously, and I think that's the main thing."

2011

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