Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby 28storms » Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:03 am

Nothing imminent for WA just yet, but there are at least hints of the monsoon becoming more active near Darwin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlfX-bzgo_Y

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby merk » Sat Dec 17, 2011 9:38 am

and there is definately more monsoonal activity happening in the kimberleys as well

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby brayden » Sat Dec 17, 2011 9:52 am

Nice explanation and details ;)
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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Sun Dec 18, 2011 2:30 pm

Holy Moly. :shock: Models for Christmas Eve.
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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Dec 18, 2011 2:37 pm

Yeah, I think of the areas looking sues its the NT/Kimberley low that will be of most interest.
It's in a few models aside of those shown by 28Storms.
Near Broome crossing? Way too far out to know of course. :lol: To hard to pick even hours before :lol:

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Dec 18, 2011 7:51 pm

This is the latest from 28Cyclones (28storms)
Good move with the name shift too on twitter ;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... JOmtNRDJg4
http://28storms.com/cyclone/

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Sun Dec 18, 2011 9:31 pm

Well, Christmas Day looks to be eventful in Darwin at this stage...
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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Dec 18, 2011 9:54 pm

Neil Bennett from BoM says there's not yet cause for concern till 3-4days out. ;) Sorry, no need to get excited about it is what he has said.

Well I'll pull up a chair and get comfy.

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:18 pm

Latest BoM Access model now showing possibility of three monsoonal features. Similar to other independent models we have discussed.
One west of Cairns, one near Darwin and another off to the far NW of WA.

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:36 pm

The just a short while ago via ABC Darwin:

Chance of Top End cyclone by week's end

Anthea Kissel
Posted December 19, 2011 18:31:54

PHOTO: The bureau says there is a moderate chance of a cyclone forming off the Top End on Thursday. (www.bom.gov.au)
MAP: Darwin 0800
The Bureau Meteorology says a tropical cyclone may form over the Northern Territory's Top End later this week.

A weak monsoon trough off the coast is expected to develop into a tropical low in the next two days.

The bureau's cyclone update, issued at 2pm Monday, says there is a 20 to 50 per cent chance of a cyclone forming on Thursday.

Senior Forecaster Graeme King says tropical cyclones often form when a low develops over water.

"At this stage the trough is expected to push offshore to the north so, push off into the Arafura Sea from about Wednesday," he said.

"And by that stage we should be able to see a tropical low forming on that trough we think.

"So somewhere north of the Top End a low (will be) forming (and) the monsoon trough's over water.

"So it starts to become a concern from that point in time."

The Power and Water Corporation is warning people to secure their homes and set aside essential supplies.

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:52 pm

The latest via 28Cyclones (28Storms)
Cyclone potential near Darwin and Coral Sea:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGhjXRPJZYc

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:10 am

Cyclone brewing off Qld coast:

The weather bureau says a cyclone is likely to develop in the Coral Sea, off Queensland's east coast, in the next two days.

The bureau says a low pressure system south-east of Papua New Guinea will probably develop into a cyclone tomorrow.

However, forecaster Leo Farrell says it is unlikely to affect the Queensland coast.

"It's well off the coast, over 1,000km off the coast," he said.

"[We] expect a slow southerly drift over the next 24 hours or so and then starting to drift more towards the south-south-easterly direction, so we don't expect it will have any impact on the Queensland coastal areas."

Duty forecaster Brett Harrison says the low should move slowly south over the next few days.

However, he says it is expected to turn away from the Queensland coast by the weekend.

"At this stage the chances of that developing into a tropical cyclone are rated as high or greater than 50 per cent from Wednesday," he said.

"So Wednesday and Thursday, there's a very good chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone."

- ABC

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Pete » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:11 pm

3 days out now.
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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:49 pm

It's not going to be a good outcome regardless. 28cyclones indicating the ridge through WA won't be doing its thing for a cyclone that is weak.

If this low moves into areas south of the top end, the poor buggers in Katherine and remote communities are going to hope they got boats for Christmas :(

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:10 pm

Eyes on skies as monsoon brews near Top End:

The weather bureau says there is an increased threat of a tropical cyclone forming in the Top End of the Northern Territory on Friday.

The chance of a cyclone forming is now listed as a 50 per cent to 100 per cent possibility.

A monsoon trough off the north coast is expected to develop into a tropical low tomorrow.

Bureau forecaster Angeline Prasad says the system has caused heavy rains of up to 100 millimetres in some parts of the Territory.

"We are expecting the system to form in the Arafura Sea in the next 12 to 24 hours," she said.

"Once the low pressure system forms, it is expected to remain slow moving over the next few days and gradually intensify.

"We have got a moderate chance of development on Thursday and a high chance of it becoming a tropical cyclone on Friday."

The Northern Territory Emergency Service says people should start preparing in case a Cyclone Watch is declared later this week.

Emergency Services director Peter Davies says Top End residents should be thinking about where they will shelter and should also consider insurance.

"If you have not cleaned up your backyard, if a cyclone watch is declared you are going to find that there are going to be long queues at the tip," he said.

"And also, quite importantly, if you haven't got your insurance and you are thinking about doing so, well, once the cyclone watch is declared, most insurance companies won't insure you for that period."

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby 28storms » Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:39 pm

Hi All,

I just uploaded my latest video. The latest European and GFS ensembles are favoring a more westerly solution. However, I'm still awaiting more model consistency before I begin to sound more definitve. I know the BOM western region isn't very aggressive with the idea that it'll come west. But WA and especially the Kimberly coast is still in play imho.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKVla3WTRi0

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:23 pm

What you are offering is totally unique in the world. It also makes meteorology an easier "thing" to understand and demystifies the science a little.

We at TheWAWG take the direction of making weather something to share and talk about regardless of met knowhow or skills.

There is an element in US, Canadian and Australian weather enthusiast communities of an elitist attitude. It's not a pissing competition like many treat it. Over all that attitude only serves to exclude people wanting to learn and perpetuates public naivety about weather.

Blah blah blah :lol: in the end you're doing something wonderful mate. Giving opportunity for everyday people to gain a better appreciation of the weather around them and the complexities faced by Meteorologists around the world.

Now back to our regular transmission...

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 21, 2011 6:28 am

So...
This morning the NT low is still iffy on models.

Indo met service would be taking interest in the area far to the NW of WA.

Coral Sea low is iffy as well. BoM confident. FNMOC (US Navy met service) not so confident. As Alex from WZ pointed out this morning, this low even as just a low will rip up the coast a bit with swells and rain.

NT low will dump loads of rain inland if it stays a low. If it turns into a weak cyclone it may track west a little at best.

It's certainly not boring and the current trough would be making a few brains hurt. :)

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Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 21, 2011 6:55 am

Coral Sea low expected to track SE. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... i&PROD=gif

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Re: Monsoon Trough - Cyclone Monitoring

Postby @weather_wa » Wed Dec 21, 2011 12:21 pm

Top End prepares for possible cyclone:

The Northern Territory Airports group says it has a committee preparing to deal with passengers who may have their Christmas travel plans disrupted by a possible cyclone in the Top End.

The weather bureau says there is a high chance a cyclone could form off the Territory coast by Friday, but it is uncertain which area it could affect.

Darwin airport director of services Jim Parashos says if some flights have to be cancelled there are not a lot of free places on other planes.

He says many flights out of Darwin are already booked at 85 per cent capacity but there is not a stampede to get out of the city.

The heavy bookings are mostly connected to Christmas travel.

"We will work with our airline customers as the weather develops to assess what we will do going forward," he said.

"There are not many seats available, so it is not that straightforward.

"I think most of the locals have been through this before, so I think they will take a wait-and-see approach."

The weather bureau says it is trying to better prepare people for a possible cyclone than they were for Cyclone Carlos in February.

Carlos quickly formed over Darwin and there was confusion among many government workers about whether they should immediately go home or stay at work.

In the ensuing storm, more than 400 millimetres of rain fell on the city overnight and houses were flooded.

Trees and powerlines were brought down and emergency services crews received more than 2,000 calls for help.

The bureau says a monsoon trough is currently heading out to sea and a low could develop off the north coast over the next three days.

Forecaster Angeline Prasad says people should be taking precautions well in advance.

"We are trying not to have a repeat of the Carlos situation, which is why we have let the public know quite early on that there is potential for a cyclone by the end of the week."

The bureau says there are currently two monsoon troughs which could form into lows off Elcho Island and Cape Don.

NT Emergency Services director Peter Davies says people in the Top End should not wait for a cyclone watch to be declared to get prepared.

"If a cyclone watch is declared, the stores empty," he said.

"So if you haven't got your three days' worth of stuff to look after yourself in a cyclone then you really need to go and get it now."

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