2010/11 cyclone predictions

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2010/11 cyclone predictions

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Oct 02, 2010 5:13 pm

A thought just occurred to me... don't worry I am OK :lol:
I am making the call of a cyclone effecting the west coast in Jan 2011 or there abouts.
ie If it happens really late Dec or early Feb I win :)
Now, I mean it may come as far south as Perth but that isn't likely so Exmouth to Carnarvon is my call :) Maybe even further South :)

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Re: 2010/11 cyclone predictions

Postby Lert » Sun Oct 03, 2010 10:27 am

All I can say is that the earlier cyclones seem to be inclined to come further south. If a cyclone happens in Feb +/- a few weeks, I win..
2006 - 543.5mm, 2007 - 701.5mm, 2008 - 833.5mm, 2009 - 579mm, 2010 - 631.5mm, 2011 - 872.5mm, 2012 - 770mm

2013 Jan 5mm YTD 5mm

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Re: 2010/11 cyclone predictions

Postby Blue Skies » Sun Oct 03, 2010 7:47 pm

Well, was just thinking about this tonight after seeing the latest global sea surface temps and we look like we're going to get a full on la Nina combined with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which should mean lots of warm water up north. Looking at SSTs at the moment it is quite warm to the west of us right now. I don't know about a west coast crossing but I'd be going for a more active season than the last couple of years. January is too early imo, I wouldn't be betting on one until late Feb at the very earliest - you have to wait for the trades to be in the right place to push them over and get sucked in by a front.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: 2010/11 cyclone predictions

Postby Perth Weather Live » Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:43 pm

gee.. looking back, your call was pretty close..

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