Reduction in frontal activity

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Reduction in frontal activity

Postby Vinny » Fri Jun 10, 2011 7:36 pm

Was reading the long range outlook on Elders weather site posted near the 12 month forecast.

A part I have copied and pasted says.

It will be a similar story for southeastern capitals, with these SST anomalies in the mid-latitudes of the Indian Ocean being a source of additional moisture for cold fronts passing across southern Australia. There are indications however that the warm anomalies may be correlated with a reduction in frontal activity through spring, so there is a tendency to below average rainfall for southern capitals around September and October of 2011.

I would like to know , why are they saying that the warm anomalies will be correlated with a REDUCTION in frontal activity through Spring for southern capitals. Is this because the SST's will have gone back to normal ? How is the SST linked to frontal activity?

Does that mean Perth could end up with less fronts and rain in September and October ? Or am I reading it wrong ?
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm

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Re: Reduction in frontal activity

Postby Pete » Fri Jun 10, 2011 8:02 pm

I don't think it will be the warmer SST's that will actually cause the below average rainfall. It maybe due to a positive IOD developing during late winter/early spring and that would cause the below average rainfall, particularly during October.
If the SST's have dropped to the average temperature by then then I wouldn't know whether the rainfall would be below average in these months because its too far out to tell and many different contributing sea/atmospheric conditions could develop or dissolve by that time.

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