Indian Ocean Dipole

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Indian Ocean Dipole

Postby Vinny » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:12 am

The Indian Ocean Dipole was slightly positive at the start of May but was very close to neutral at the start of June. A strongly positive IOD correlates with below average winter rainfall in southeastern Australia, while a negative IOD correlates with above average rainfall through this period.

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This is a paragraph from a longe range outlook on Elders.

I always get :? about whether a positive IOD is a good or bad thing for SW WA ?. If it is neutral now what does that mean for SW WA wouldn't that mean it would have no impact on SW WA ?
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: Indian Ocean Dipole

Postby Pete » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:09 pm

Vinny wrote:Big Pete - I just now saw your posts on W Zone - Perth and WA Weather.

So when you said yesterday

All the models agree with that high weakening below 1024hPa by Monday. After that it looks like the highs finally move north and we're dominated by a westerly flow.


The second bit about the highs finally moving north and being dominated by a westerly flow aren't true because the models have changed ...right?


Yep, that's right. :|

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Re: Indian Ocean Dipole

Postby Pete » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:19 pm

About the IOD - I'm not sure myself. I'm pretty sure a neutral or negative IOD is a good thing. All the climate prediction models say a positive IOD will affect SE Australia but never say what will happen to SW WA.

Here's some good links:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ ... otupdated/

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/

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Re: Indian Ocean Dipole

Postby Pete » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:36 pm

_Johnno_ From Weatherzone wrote: If you had of asked me a month ago mate I would of said a weak Negative IOD may occur but at the moment I see it being Neutral through the 2nd half of Winter and into Spring, I can't see a swing either way even though some models like POAMA and that have it pointing towards a +IOD but POAMA has a tendacy to be warmer than normal for everything I have noticed.. This time last Year it didn't have a Negative IOD to occur for the Winter and Spring of 2010

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Indian Ocean Dipole

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Jun 10, 2011 6:42 pm

Don't forget that IOD doesn't have absolute influence over SW WA weather.

It is just one of a number of other factors. No one yet can fully understand the mechanisms of their combined interactions.

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Re: Indian Ocean Dipole

Postby Pete » Tue Jun 14, 2011 8:23 pm

Japan Agency For Marine-Earth Science and Technology:
ENSO forecast: The current La Nina condition has decayed during the past months and showed a Modoki-type pattern. Although the possibility of an El Nino development cannot be excluded (if surface westerly wind bursts in the equatorial western Pacific would happen in following months), our model forecasts continuously show that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist up to early 2012.

IO forecast: Large uncertainty exists for the IOD forecasts; neither strong positive IOD nor strong negative IOD would occur this year. Warmer seas surface temperature would persist west of Australia.

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