Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

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Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby adamD » Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:47 pm

Discuss July 2015 weather here.


So far this winter has had very long dry spells with June being below average with most of June's rain falling in just 4 days. A persistent high pressure belt has been stationary across the southern hemisphere well south than what is normally expected for this time of year. This has resulted in the Westerly belt that produces much of our winter rain and fronts, stay well south of WA and unable to move north and clip the state. Luckily a cut off low with heaps of moisture saved Perth from the driest June on record.

This chart below just shows WA isn't the only place affected

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Does this mean that July and August going to be the same. I say probably not. History data shows that what usually starts as a dry winter, we usually catch up in the 2nd half of winter. I think we will return to a normal winter pattern sometime in July. These high pressure belts will more more north soonish. 2013 was a good example where we had a really dry June but we actually recorded alot of rain in the 2nd half of that winter.
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby mackerelmauler » Wed Jul 01, 2015 2:03 pm

I wondering where we can find the machine to drag the high pressure belt 500 km further north.
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby Vinny » Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:05 pm

I'm wondering if that is also causing our weather to be pretty different. No usual winds off the land at nights and days and warmer minimum temperatures with more onshore wind. We're stuck in almost constant SE winds pattern with cloudy weather (usually clear blue skies) and slightly higher humidity.

We're still averaging night temps we should get in May (around 15 deg) in June and now into July. No many of the usual 12 or less deg nights.

I think Perth might still have a wetter July to September .
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby Benni.G. » Thu Jul 02, 2015 8:36 pm

The High pressure belt being more south then normal affected here as well, there was only 10 sub 20 minimum temps here for June and was lot more humid then normal. There was even a band of very light showers move through here before dawn this morning.
This weather is not weird or a freak as some are describing in the media, particularly the cyclone near Solomon Islands last few days, I think the highs will move further north in the next ten days, had a blast of SE'er come through today, so maybe changing already ?
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:48 pm

Colder temps finally coming during next week. Don't recall a forecast of 1c overnight for perth this far out.

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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby davo » Wed Jul 08, 2015 1:07 pm

No way winter can set in if these highs keep wedging in behind every dribbly front we get. Still 'just waiting'...

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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby floppy » Wed Jul 08, 2015 3:43 pm

19mm here in Bayonet Head, 17.8mm at the Albany airport
you can never always sometimes tell
when you least expect the most

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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby mackerelmauler » Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:26 am

A flash flood inducing 1 mm here in Marangaroo.
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Fri Jul 10, 2015 2:08 pm

It looks like it will be dry for the next 10 days at least. There hasn't been a single proper cold front this month, just moist onshore winds giving us those small daily rain totals so far. There was only one system last month, with basically all our rainfall coming from that event.

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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby rex777 » Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:09 pm

Yet again there is a massive high of 1040hpa well south of us that will ensure the fronts will reach the Antarctic coast. I'm sorry but i can't see a light at the end of the tunnel. This year is finished.

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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby mackerelmauler » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:40 am

rex777 wrote:Yet again there is a massive high of 1040hpa well south of us that will ensure the fronts will reach the Antarctic coast. I'm sorry but i can't see a light at the end of the tunnel. This year is finished.


Boo hiss Boo Hiss leave us alone Hagar the Horrible High Pressure system.

Southwest WA deserves a fortnight of long wave trough and all the weather that brings with it.
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby floppy » Sun Jul 12, 2015 6:28 am

WZ showing lightning off the Perff coast
who knew
you can never always sometimes tell
when you least expect the most

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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby adamD » Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:57 am

The wait for winter rain might be over this time next week. Its only half way through winter, still got another 6 weeks of winter and another 12 weeks of a chance of copping a strong cold front.
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby Cyclone Alby » Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:21 am

Car windscreen was frozen solid this morning.
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby SimonB » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:51 am

It's definitely going to pour this week and be a very wet August. How do I know this? Because I'm out of the country :-)
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby Benni.G. » Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:36 pm

I always wonder at this time of year how the Avon Descent is going to go; it's a big eeek at this year, the water level at Toodyay is about 0.0122 m, which is not good. The website says it will go ahead regardless of water level.
My sister was at the Inlaws farm near Morawa over the weekend and they said it was the driest they had ever seen, only putting a very small crop in this year.
Hope it does pick up soon and this isn't something that is going to be common occurrence of low winter rainfall
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby Greggo » Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:54 am

Sparks a couple hundred kms off shore. Looking forward to the change in the next few days, some big rain totals hopefully?!

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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby mackerelmauler » Mon Jul 20, 2015 7:16 am

Just went out to check my rain gauge and got a pleasant surprise because there is more than 25 mm in the rain gauge.
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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby davo » Mon Jul 20, 2015 7:27 am

23.4mm here, but Jandakot is fairly close to us and got over 56mm. Oh well, guess I should be thankful to get anything the way things have been going!

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Re: Just waiting for winter rain July 2015

Postby silvercloud » Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:20 am

We've had 50mm since saturday. 40mm since 9am yesterday.

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