Magnificent Monster Storms March

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby adamD » Wed Mar 11, 2015 4:33 pm

This is one decent forecast for Perth on Saturday

Perth area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. A thunderstorm likely. Heavy falls exceeding 50 mm possible. Winds easterly 25 to 40 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Min 20
Max 27
Storms. Possible heavy falls.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby mackerelmauler » Wed Mar 11, 2015 4:46 pm

Sneaky cyclone has officially been named Tropical Cyclone Olwyn.


AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn

Issued at 2:54 pm WST Wednesday 11 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 8.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby mackerelmauler » Wed Mar 11, 2015 4:48 pm

adamD wrote:This is one decent forecast for Perth on Saturday

Perth area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. A thunderstorm likely. Heavy falls exceeding 50 mm possible. Winds easterly 25 to 40 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Min 20
Max 27
Storms. Possible heavy falls.


I think there are 2 chances of Pennant bowls being played on Saturday in Perth metro area based on that forecast.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:33 am

"REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Olwyn was located using recent IR and microwave imagery.

Dvorak: Curved band analysis on EIR gives a wrap of 0.8 and a DT of 3.5. MET was
3.0 with PAT 3.5. FT/CI set to 3.5 with intensity of 50 knots [10 minute mean
winds]. This is in good agreement with ADT.

CIMSS shear analysis at 12 UTC indicated shear between 5 and 10. Upper winds
show good outflow over all quadrants.The environment is favourable for
intensification at close to the standard rate with Olwyn forecast to reach
category 3 [hurricane force] before the system makes landfall in the vicinity of
Exmouth.

The range of NWP tracks now has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards
the south southwest towards the west Pilbara coast. The motion is forecast to
increase to around 10 knots from the current 7 knots.

Interaction with an appoaching trough will turn the system to the south
southwest and INCREASE SPEED during Friday with ETT likely. A combination of
landfall and increasing shear will weaken the system during this period though
it will produce heavy rain and squally winds over a large part of Western
Australia."

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:37 am

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Olwyn was located using recent IR and microwave imagery.
Dvorak: Curved band analysis on EIR gives a wrap of 0.8 and a DT of 3.5. MET was 3.5 based on a D+ trend. 0030Z image shows an eye emerging in both VIS and IR. These images yield DT4.0 based on eye analysis. FT/CI set to 3.5 with intensity of 50 knots [10 minute mean winds]. This is in good agreement with ADT and available SATCON but given the continuing intensification evident in microwave and IR it is possible the current intensity is slightly higher.
CIMSS shear analysis at 18 UTC indicated shear between 5 and 10 knots. Shear is low over a broad region. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants.Ocean heat content is high. The environment is favourable for intensification at at least the standard rate. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
The range of NWP tracks now has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south southwest towards the west Pilbara coast. It is possible that the system will take a more southwesterly track and remain over water as it moves down the west coast south of Exmouth. In this scenario wind impacts down the west coast will be much greater. Shear increases as the system moves south but the increase is not as abrupt as is often the case and the system is likely to undergo ETT and retain significant wind strength into higher latitudes.
Interaction with an approaching trough will turn the system to the south
southeast and INCREASE SPEED during Friday with ETT likely. A combination of landfall and increasing shear will weaken the system during this period though it will produce heavy rain and squally winds over a large part of Western Australia.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:40 am

Gonna take a gamble and call cat 4 before crossing.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:37 pm

ACCESS wants a Perth landfall now.


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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby craigperth » Thu Mar 12, 2015 3:44 pm

Yeah doubtful it will cross at Perth... Will be lucky to pass south of ex mouth... Although if it can get around exmouth far enough out to sea then it might come close...
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby TC_Ben » Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:06 pm

It's looking a lot healthier than it has been all day in the past few hours, starting to look a bit more mature, it will be interesting to see if it does manage to reach Cat 3 before landfall though.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Cyclone Alby » Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:42 pm

Next update at around 6pm and at the moment its wants to keep hugging around the coast abit longer.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Storm Wolf » Thu Mar 12, 2015 5:15 pm

Should be fun being on the roads Saturday...
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby TC_Ben » Thu Mar 12, 2015 5:32 pm

I've been focusing so much on the North West I didn't notice that there is a SWW out as well. It will be an interesting day that's for sure.

Weather Situation

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is expected to weaken in northern parts of the Southwest Land Division during Saturday morning and the remnants of the system will move in a south south-east direction thorough central and western parts of the Southwest Land Division during the day.

HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS will be in parts of the warning area north of Jurien Bay to Paynes Find during the early morning before moving into the remainder of the warning area north of Mandurah to Southern Cross by the middle of the day.

On Saturday the ex-tropical cyclone will produce

- HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING

- WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour

that could result in DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.

During Saturday afternoon and evening the system will move further south affecting remaining parts of the Southwest Land Division west of Southern Cross to Hopetoun.

This is rare weather event for people in the southwest of WA.

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/severe.shtml

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Thu Mar 12, 2015 6:06 pm

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TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17

Issued at 6:00 pm WST on Thursday 12 March 2015
Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn upgraded to category 3 as it rapidly approaches the west Pilbara coast.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

Roebourne to Geraldton, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and adjacent inland parts of the western Pilbara, western Gascoyne and western Central West Districts.
Watch Zone

Geraldton to Jurien Bay and extending inland to Paynes Find.
Cancelled Zone

The Cyclone WARNING from Whim Creek to Roebourne has been cancelled.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn at 5:00 pm WST:

Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South 114.6 degrees East, estimated to be 125 kilometres north northwest of Onslow and 155 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: south southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn has intensified to category 3 as it rapidly approaches the west Pilbara coast. The cyclone centre will be in the vicinity of Exmouth later tonight and then continue to move generally southwards.

It is still possible that Olwyn may track over water to the west of Exmouth and retain cyclone intensity for longer. In that scenario communities along the Gascoyne coast will experience much stronger winds than if it tracks just inland from the coast. Regardless of whether it is over water or land, as it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.
Hazards:

Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced along the western Pilbara coast. DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts are being experienced at Barrow Island and DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 165 kilometres are expected to develop along the western Pilbara coast including Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday evening and may extend inland to Nanutarra.

Late Thursday evening or early Friday morning VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 kilometres per hour are expected to develop near the west Pilbara coast, most likely between Onslow and Exmouth, as the cyclone approaches the coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Coral Bay early Friday morning. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may extend to Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon during Friday morning.

Residents between Mardie and Exmouth are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne during Thursday and continue into Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday. Please refer to the latest Severe Weather Warnings and Flood Watches and Warnings for more details: http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.
Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities from Mardie to Onslow including Onslow (excluding Pannawonica).

YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities from Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth, Coral Bay, Cape Cuvier, Carnarvon, Wooramel and Denham. People need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Roebourne to Mardie, including Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Dampier, Pannawonica and from Overlander Roadhouse to Kalbarri including Billabong Roadhouse. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Roebourne.
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm WST Thursday 12 March.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby adamD » Thu Mar 12, 2015 6:48 pm

Added Learmonth radar to index page.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Cyclone Alby » Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:00 pm

The latest update was at 6.00pm and the next at 7.00pm. Thats seems a pretty quick update for a severe cyclone. Any idea guys why that :?:
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby TC_Ben » Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:05 pm

They've moved to hourly updates. I'm not sure where it is stated on the BoM website but when an area is under imminent threat the updates happen hourly, in our state it's usually when there is a red alert.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby mackerelmauler » Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:47 pm

Eye shows up clearly on Learmonth radar.


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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Greggo » Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:02 pm

Latest track forecast still has it as a Category 1 cyclone near Jurien Bay on Saturday morning! It'll be interesting, albeit somewhat more dangerous, if it does get back over the water heading down the coast and maintains it's cyclone strength longer.

Thoughts are with the West Pilbara towns/communities tonight.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby supersmell » Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:28 pm

Will be interesting with th cut off low approaching from the west as well. Wasnt there a front that helped pull Alby down in 79? Could be wrong

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby davo » Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:43 pm

Guys you can start posting in the Olwyn thread regarding the cyclone, especially since this one should have some kind of impact on Perth. People with greater privileges than me (i.e Fu) may want to move existing posts over there...unless there's been a change of policy I'm unaware of...?

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