Magnificent Monster Storms March

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Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby mackerelmauler » Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:29 pm

We have already marched into March and I can't see a topic yet.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:20 pm

Image

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby floppy » Wed Mar 04, 2015 7:52 am

hey fu
what is

Albany has gone back to being boring, had another 2mm on the weekend after the 29 - 30 mm we had
after that big system went through
nippy in the mornings here, autumn definitely here
you can never always sometimes tell
when you least expect the most

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby mackerelmauler » Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:11 am

Flood warnings issued for several WA rivers

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/flood/index.shtml

Western Australia Flood Warning Summary

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Flood Summary

Issued at 10:20 AM on Wednesday the 4th of March 2015
The following Watches/Warnings are current:

Flood Warning for the De Grey River catchment.
Flood Warning for the Gascoyne River Catchment
Flood Warning for the Greenough and Irwin River Catchments

The Horticulturists in Carnarvon will be breathing a little easier with a flow coming soon.

Flood Warning for Gascoyne River

IDW39820

A Commonwealth and State interagency partnership that provides flood warning services for the community of Western Australia

Flood Warning for the Gascoyne River Catchment
Issued at 8:45 am WST on Wednesday 4 March 2015
Western Australia Flood Warning Centre

Recent heavy rainfall in the Gascoyne River catchment has caused significant stream rises and areas of flooding in upper areas of Jimba. The Gascoyne River at Jimba and in lower areas is expected to rise with areas of flooding during Wednesday and into Thursday.

Predicted River Heights/Flows:
Minor to moderate flooding is expected in the Gascoyne River at Jimba during Wednesday afternoon.

Minor to moderate flooding is expected to develop in the Gascoyne River at Fishy Pool overnight Wednesday.

Minor flooding is expected to develop in the Gascoyne River at Nine Mile Bridge during Thursday.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Greggo » Sat Mar 07, 2015 6:38 pm

Since the weather is boringly pleasant in the SW at the moment, I thought I might just leave these here...

Image

Image

They've popped up on social media today. It won't happen, but still haha

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby floppy » Sun Mar 08, 2015 6:15 am

Image

come at me
you can never always sometimes tell
when you least expect the most

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Cyclone Alby » Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:52 am

Greggo wrote:Since the weather is boringly pleasant in the SW at the moment, I thought I might just leave these here...

Image

Image

They've popped up on social media today. It won't happen, but still haha


Well strange things can happen but yeah most of time those go inland and we miss out.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby davo » Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:31 pm

I guess in our favour is that there is bucketloads of moisture up in the Gascoyne and Pilbara at the moment, plus that cutoff low wandering in towards the weekend. Cautious optimism? Nah, flat-out skepticism then I won't be disappointed!

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby mackerelmauler » Mon Mar 09, 2015 10:28 pm

I'm a true believer, I will continue to believe it might happen if it is still forecast to head near Perth at 4.20 pm on Friday.

So many cyclones so few come anywhere near Perth.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby chartphred » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:44 am

mackerelmauler wrote:I'm a true believer, I will continue to believe it might happen if it is still forecast to head near Perth at 4.20 pm on Friday.

So many cyclones so few come anywhere near Perth.


Yes we can hope. I would like to see more of a dumping of a huge amount of rain over this part of the state, been ages since that happened. Rather than some blustery wind-storm that hurtles its way down the coast.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby adamD » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:25 pm

Rain this weekend looks likely. Although the cyclone won't affect these parts it looks like moisture from it will feed down in a trough and combine with the low out to the west. We may see something like 50mm around Perth if it all goes to plan.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Cyclone Alby » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:29 pm

Perth going for 35c max on saturday, sticky conditions ahead.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:15 pm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0


She's organizing herself nicely. Interesting days ahead.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby mackerelmauler » Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:56 am

Latest track map for Sneaky (aka soon to Olwyn) cyclone.

Image

Saturday could be really interesting.
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:29 am

It's really shaping up now. Nice inflow bands on the southern quadrant. Only a matter of time now before she reaches TC status.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:13 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0200 UTC 11/03/2015
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 115.9E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
FORECAST DATA
DATE/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 11/0600: 16.4S 115.5E: 050 [095]: 025 [045]: 1003
+12: 11/1200: 16.9S 115.4E: 065 [120]: 030 [055]: 1001
+18: 11/1800: 17.7S 115.3E: 075 [140]: 030 [055]: 1001
+24: 12/0000: 18.4S 114.9E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 995
+36: 12/1200: 20.3S 114.5E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 991
+48: 13/0000: 22.4S 113.9E: 130 [235]: 050 [095]: 987
+60: 13/1200: 24.9S 114.1E: 150 [275]: 040 [075]: 993
+72: 14/0000: 28.2S 115.3E: 165 [310]: 030 [055]: 1000
+96: 15/0000: 34.8S 121.8E: 210 [390]: 025 [045]: 1000
+120: 16/0000: 36.6S 128.9E: 300 [555]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:
The system has developed in the last 24 hours within an area of low vertical
shear. CMISS has the vertical shear around 10-20 knots. The Dvorak analysis has
a FT/CI of 1.5.

Model guidance is very consistent with the system forecast to move in a south to
southwest direction over the NEXT 48 hours, into an area of decreasing vertical
shear. With SSTs around 30C the environment for development is favourable.

The development the system is likely to peak at a category 2 intensity. The
shear is forecast to increase over the system when it reaches the west Pilbara
coast on Friday.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:16 pm

Image

6 hours later:

Image

Going to be interesting to see how these two features interact! Both will be carrying a lot of tropical moisture.

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Pete » Wed Mar 11, 2015 2:15 pm

Image


GFS going for a Jurien Bay crossing now

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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby craigperth » Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:41 pm

getting closer... Jurian Bay is not far north of us... only a few hundred Kms.... this could glance Perth... still so far away though annything can and will happen... but nice to see so a few models bringing it close to perth still
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Re: Magnificent Monster Storms March

Postby Kal Barri » Wed Mar 11, 2015 4:18 pm

Don't recall seeing Kalbarri in the gale watch area before. Probably won't notice much difference between the usual 35 knot sea breeze and Olwyn sliding on by. Rain would be good.

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