Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:01 am

BoM wrote:IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:22 pm WST on Wednesday 22 January 2014
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 25 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are
expected to develop or enter the area in the next three days.

On Sunday a weak low is likely to enter the region from near Darwin and lie
near the Kimberley coast. This system has some potential to develop during
Monday to Wednesday of next week as it tracks to the southwest off the Pilbara
coast. Conditions are not entirely favourable for development of this system
but it will be closely monitored.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:
Thursday Very Low
Friday Very Low
Saturday Very Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.





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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:32 am

The tropical Low dumped a lot of rain in central WA. I am wondering what the effects will be on the Gascoyne River and the Murchison River?
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Jan 24, 2014 9:49 pm

mackerelmauler wrote:The tropical Low dumped a lot of rain in central WA. I am wondering what the effects will be on the Gascoyne River and the Murchison River?


Gascoyne River:
Carnarvon http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW62402/IDW6 ... .plt.shtml
Fishy Pool http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW62402/IDW6 ... .plt.shtml

Murchison: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW62402/IDW6 ... .plt.shtml

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Jan 24, 2014 9:51 pm

BoM not backing the GFS forecast for the tropical low to form which is in line with ECMWF forecast.
Very much in favour of the low developing near the Solomon Islands.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Sat Jan 25, 2014 3:15 pm

Meeka sounding this arvo. Station here has 34.3c, dewpoint 20.8c. Cu field is growing, with distant towers to the west.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:57 am

Worked out ok for nearby areas :)

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:24 am

Check this from last night.
Broome radar http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.main&radar=171&numberofImages=10&dateStart=1390683000&dateFinish=1390751400
PortHedland radar http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.main&radar=161&numberofImages=10&dateStart=1390683000&dateFinish=1390751400
Cop the rotation occurring as it nears PortHedland.


The last high res satellite image before the sun went down.
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:01 pm

More nasty storms in the north. The NW Cape getting a going ver today.
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... 1390837800

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:04 pm

Went to get on the storms north of Meeka this evening. Heavy showers, got to around 56kms on great northern hwy (karalundi drive) beyond that was flooding. Went for a bit in it but the water was rising lol, turn back. There's a lot of water sitting/flooding between Meeka & Newman, fair bit of greenery too!


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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby silvercloud » Tue Jan 28, 2014 11:59 pm

Wow, doesn't even look like desert with all that water.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby floppy » Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:35 am

silvercloud wrote:Wow, doesn't even look like desert with all that water.

its desert water, its drier than normal water
you can never always sometimes tell
when you least expect the most

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Torquelimited » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:30 pm

This thing chased me west on Karajini Drive this afternoon then continued to dump large amounts of rain all over the east Pilbara.
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:20 pm

Nice! :D
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Torquelimited » Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:01 pm

Following Day heading to Dampier from Tom Price up the rail access road.
Didn't get very far.
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:59 am

Sensational photos folks :)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 31 January 2014
for the period until midnight WST Monday 3 February 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


The monsoon trough lies offshore north of the Pilbara extending eastward over
the northern Kimberley. A low is likely to form in the Browse Basin on Friday.
The low will slowly develop in the Browse Basin during Saturday. The models
generally agree on the system being steered by the monsoon flow in a eastward
direction towards the north Kimberley coast on Sunday and Monday. There is a
moderate risk that the system could reached TC intensity by the end of Sunday
or on Monday, before crossing the north Kimberley coast and weakening.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:
Saturday Low
Sunday Moderate
Monday Moderate



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Sat Feb 01, 2014 1:28 pm

A couple of pics from last nights distant storms :)

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Sat Feb 01, 2014 3:21 pm

Going through Meeka's stats, while wrapping up info for Jan. The avg. rainfall for the month is 28.4mm, got 130.6mm this year. The record is 135.4mm (2000), almost could have got another! lol
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby silvercloud » Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:41 am

Awesome pics!

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:29 pm

The monsoon is keeping BoM busy. 4 tropical Lows embedded along it.

As for WA, this is what is being monitored. "Move along people. Nothing to see here."
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Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 11:47 am WST on Monday 3 February 2014
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 6 February 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Nil.


There are no significant lows in the Western region and none are expected in
the next three days. The monsoon trough is forecast to become active again in
our region from Friday into the weekend, with likely increased risk of
development.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday Very Low
Wednesday Very Low
Thursday Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Blue Skies » Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:18 pm

Another swirly cyclone-like low over NT land at the moment. Looks better than the claytons (ex-)cyclone in the gulf.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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