Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Forum rules
Discussions on Weather related to Western Australia including Perth weather, Western Australia weather and Tropical activity including Cyclones affecting WA and NT.
F5 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 741
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:17 pm
Location: Collie

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby davo » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:00 pm

You got yourself a crystal ball, Fu??

Total Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 1037
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:30 pm
Location: Melbourne, Victoria

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Blue Skies » Tue Jan 21, 2014 1:55 pm

Can someone explain why this low is lasting so long, and over land as well? I can't see any obvious moisture feed and surely the friction of the land surface would have broken it up by now, but it just keeps going (and looking spectacular on the sat pics!).
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

WAWG Leadership Group
User avatar
Posts: 3443
Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2010 8:18 pm
Location: Murdoch

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Pete » Tue Jan 21, 2014 3:21 pm

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... 8MWR2409.1

Should answer your question :) Rather a long read but a very interesting one

WAWG Leadership Group
User avatar
Posts: 3443
Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2010 8:18 pm
Location: Murdoch

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Pete » Tue Jan 21, 2014 3:37 pm

The soil profiles up there must be holding an insane amount of heat and moisture for it to be surviving so well structurally and maintaining heavy rainfall over the Pilbara for this long. We're talking thousands and thousands of Joules/kg. Perhaps there's a cycle happening there right now where the heat trapped is slowly being released and the additional rains is helping to cause condensation and the release of latent heat that fuels cell regeneration. But I'm no expert on the subject.

Total Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 1037
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:30 pm
Location: Melbourne, Victoria

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Blue Skies » Tue Jan 21, 2014 4:20 pm

Pete wrote:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008MWR2409.1

Should answer your question :) Rather a long read but a very interesting one


Hmm, yes, very interesting read. It would make sense, given the intense heat that has been hanging around the Pilbara and south of the Kimberley since October (remembering Fitzroy Crossing was 40+ for nearly all of October, I was thinking back then we were going to pay for all that heat somehow).

So to summarize (for all those who can't be bothered reading the article) it seems that the desert sands up north can hold enough heat to reinvigorate a low over land by releasing that heat with the leading rains of the low i.e. the hot sands transfer the heat to the fallen rain as it evaporates again and you get your hot moisture source for cyclonic development/maintenance over land and not connected to the ocean).

Hope I've got that right.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 21, 2014 8:41 pm

The InfraRed Satellite image animation from 20th Jan through to midnight 23rd (link will update when viewed)
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... 1390404600

PortHedland Radar over the same period.
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... 1390404600

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 21, 2014 8:54 pm


WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:09 pm

The low is drawing in loads of moist air from the warm ocean off the NW
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... -22.96,937

Water Vapour animation:
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.htm ... &stop=#nav

WAWG Leadership Group
User avatar
Posts: 3443
Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2010 8:18 pm
Location: Murdoch

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Pete » Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:30 pm

Image

Models are showing hints of another potential cyclone next week.

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:44 pm

This would be the 3rd time in a row we see a similar run for a TC development. This pattern really wants to happen.
On another note, it's amazing how good the models we use are becoming. Years ago, they would come up with some wild forecasts and much of them come to nothing. Now they all show similar features more often than not, leaving only the location of the feature the defining difference.

Total Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 1037
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:30 pm
Location: Melbourne, Victoria

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Blue Skies » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:35 pm

Fu Manchu wrote:The low is drawing in loads of moist air from the warm ocean off the NW
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... -22.96,937


This is such a cool webpage. The low is very clear and you can see why there was a line of storms across Qld today plus why the central west is stuck in a pocket of trapped heat at the moment.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

WAWG Leadership Group
User avatar
Posts: 3443
Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2010 8:18 pm
Location: Murdoch

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Pete » Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:33 am

Wow, she's dragging moist air all the way up from the Indian Ocean! That's crazy, what an organized system. I'm keen to see what happens once that second low moves offshore.

WAWG Leadership Group
Posts: 872
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2008 2:17 pm
Location: Margaret River

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Cyclone Alby » Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:21 am

wz_syn_aus_d6_640x480.jpg
Tropical Low
wz_syn_aus_d6_640x480.jpg (112.9 KiB) Viewed 16513 times


Next week tuesday
Margaret River

2011 YTD 1056.2 mm
2012 YTD 716.6 mm
2013 YTD 1174.6 mm :)
2014 YTD 840.2mm
2015 YTD 798.8mm

Weather Boffin
User avatar
Posts: 1111
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2010 2:15 pm
Location: Kinross, Perth.

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Wed Jan 22, 2014 6:02 pm

It's been a nice wet & windy day! Meeka Ap got 43.4mm up to 9am and has had another 12.0mm since then atm. Used the red pen for speci's for the whole shift.

Yeah that article is a good read about the prolonging effects on a LPS :)

Hopefully that future low eventuates, though don't like the chances
Image

If I'm in with the sane, does that make me insane?

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:55 pm

How was the recorded rain at the station NE of Meeka. 183mm of rain in 24hrs. The rest couldn't be measured because the gauge went under water :lol:
The station owner was so chipper considering the circumstances. I'll need to find the story.

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:08 pm

Drivers Stranded
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-22/p ... section=wa

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-22/pilbara-goldfields-flooding/5213206?section=wa
Flooding closes two major highways and number of roads stranding drivers in WA's Pilbara and Goldfields
By Ebonnie Spriggs and Rebecca Curtin
Updated 5 hours 22 minutes ago

Roads in the Pilbara and Goldfields are closed due to flooding.
PHOTO: Roads in the Pilbara and Goldfields are closed due to flooding (file). (Daniel Cecchele)
RELATED STORY: Dad, five children stranded at flooded WA creek rescued
MAP: Kalgoorlie 6430
Drivers in WA's north are stranded due to flooding which has closed two major highways as well as a number of other roads.

A tropical low is dumping heavy rain across parts of the Goldfields and Pilbara, and flash flooding warnings are in place.

The Goldfields Highway between Wiluna and Meekatharra has been closed, as well as the Great Northern Highway from Meekatharra to Newman.

Daryl Everett from the Kumarina Roadhouse, about half way between Meekatharra and Newman on the Great Northern Highway, says a number of travellers are stranded there.

"It's a full house at the moment, contractors, some visitors, a few truckies, it's a mix," he said.

"We have plenty of food and stuff.

"It was busy last night catering for everyone but everyone handled it okay.

"We gave them rooms, those that didn't have rooms we gave them power for their fridges and some slept in the car, they all had plenty to eat."

Main Roads spokesman Chris Martin says more rain is forecast.

If you do see a body of water over the road and you're unsure of the depth, we'd advise you not to drive into it.
Chris Martin
"We've been keeping an eye on the weather forecast and advice from the Department of Fire and Emergency Services," he said.

"Over the next few days there's quite a lot of heavy rain forecast for the Goldfields.

"We're going to continue to monitor the situation and advise people as things change."

For up to date information on road closures go to the Main Roads site.

Mr Martin says drivers should take care.

"It can be quite dangerous," he said.

"We would advise people to delay any non-essential travel. If it is raining heavily and you cannot see, please pull over.

"If you do see a body of water over the road and you're unsure of the depth, we'd advise you not to drive into it."

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:10 pm

Water as far as the eye can see

The homestead at Mingah Springs Station, about 180 kilometres north of Meekatharra, has been flooded.

The station's Tracy Elliot says they recorded about 183 millimetres of rain up until about 5:30am but the gauge is now underwater.

"The rain gauge is gone, so god knows what we have had," she said.

"Last time I looked the gauge was about eight inches under water.

"It came up, it went right through the main house, it has gone through everything, all the verandas, the bedrooms, the lounge room, bathroom and it was lapping the kitchen door but luckily it didn't come in.

"All the feed shed, the workshop, all the vehicles, everything has had a good drink.

"All the damage is done, even if it goes down now really really quick, it has done the damage."

We asked for rain and we got it, a bit more than we bargained for, but anyway it will be all nice no doubt at the end of it when we clean the mess up.
Tracy Elliot
Mrs Elliot has been at the station for 24 years and says she has never seen the flooding this high before.

She says there is water everywhere you look.

"The lawns they've gone under, the garden has gone right under, everything had gone under and it's still under at the moment," she said.

"Everyone is doing fine, we are in no danger of getting washed away unless there's more coming down."

Mrs Elliot says they have not been able to assess their stock at this stage.

"I would imagine some of the old cows are a bit light, we could lose some cattle," she said.

"The horses, hopefully they'll be fine. We have three horses here at the house, they look a bit wet and soggy.

"The pet kangaroo, I had to pick him up and put him in on the veranda because he was getting a bit waterlogged, but generally everything is fine.

"I did have three geese but last I saw them they were heading down the creek, so whether we see them again I don't know.

"The good thing is no doubt there'll be some green grass at the end of it all and hopefully some fat cattle, that's what we wanted.

"We asked for rain and we got it, a bit more than we bargained for, but anyway it will be all nice no doubt at the end of it when we clean the mess up."

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:12 pm

Image

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:15 pm

Goldfields Forecast
http://tiny.tw/3gzN

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:59 pm

EC not really going for the low by the look.. yet.
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.e&mo ... delType=14

ACCESS features a low off the NW Cape
Image

Looks like the low will start to appear Sunday as a monsoon near the Kimberley then intensify over coming days into a tropical low on Monday night.

Similar track forecast (in the models) yet again.

In relation to the whole Perth thing. The systems that have affected Perth have originated in the same place as this system except one.

PreviousNext

Return to Local Weather Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 18 guests