Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Pete » Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:20 pm

I've been watching the models for this one for 3 - 4 days now. GFS (BSCH) models have been consistent with the BoM's threat map, developing off the NT coast and crossing somewhere on the Kimberly coast. At least two other models predict it to move parallel to the coast and then swing around to cross somewhere north of Geraldton. Either way it means a lot of rain for the central and eastern areas. If EC is right we could have a storm set-up similar to January 25 - 28, 2011.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 14, 2014 7:38 am

That would be these events...
viewtopic.php?f=182&t=1226
viewtopic.php?f=182&t=1224
viewtopic.php?f=182&t=1227
viewtopic.php?f=182&t=1195&start=360

Some really cool discussion and photos in those :)

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:59 am

Maybe we could get moisture from the Monsoonal low drawn down into a deepening west coast trough and have a deep mid level low arrive at just the right time. That way could have a repeat of January 2001 for Perth.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Pete » Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:38 pm

Long way out but if the models hold..
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We could be looking at a very wet Australia day

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Blue Skies » Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:41 pm

And a very hot one too...?
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Jan 15, 2014 7:59 pm

If like that, then yes.
However what seems more likely now is for the low to track inland along the coast and down. Lots of rain and flooding in remote and arid regions like the Pilbara, Gascoyne & Murchison.
Some suggest the low to be drawn SE before it reaches the NW Cape.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Jan 15, 2014 9:31 pm

A serious volume of rain is about to give the Kimberley a good clean down.
http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au/alerts/Pages/ ... temId=9219

It is also expected that as this low tracks inland of the coast that the Pilbara will see a large amount of rain too.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Sat Jan 18, 2014 5:28 pm

The low is holding up well hey, this is the forecasted rainfall for Wednesday

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8 day forecast, some very much needed rainfall for inland parts of WA :)

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Jan 18, 2014 10:29 pm

Yeah, thats a heap of rain.
Was expecting this system to drift away to the SE, but it really is hanging in there.
They laughed at him for opening there but finally the dive and snorkel shop in Meeka will be doing a nice trade.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Sun Jan 19, 2014 9:39 am

I shall dub it Meekadive
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby floppy » Sun Jan 19, 2014 1:44 pm

just looking at the satellites of Northern WA
does anyone else think that low is moving back out towards the coast
you can never always sometimes tell
when you least expect the most

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Jan 19, 2014 9:40 pm

Yes indeedie I do too.
Though there will be a bit of merge between the tropical inland not a cyclone low and another low that will form on the NW Cape. It does come very close to the ocean. You almost feel that a low structured like that for so long deserves to become a cyclone

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Jan 19, 2014 9:46 pm

It is approaching at a huge rate.
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/ir_sat.htm ... &stop=#nav

This system was forecast to swing SE some days ago, the tropical notes forecast a WSW track but the infra red animation is showing a rapid WNW track in recent hours.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Jan 19, 2014 9:54 pm

In fact the dash for water is even more evident in this animation showing it's existence start to finish over the last 7 days
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... 1390146000

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Jan 19, 2014 11:36 pm

buuuuut it won't happen.

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 3:41 pm WST on Sunday 19 January 2014
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 22 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is located inland over the Northern Interior district moving
westwards. It is expected to remain inland, and weaken over the next couple of
days. This system is expected to bring significant rainfall to the eastern
Pilbara, eastern Gascoyne, central and northern parts of the Interior in the
next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:
Monday Very Low
Tuesday Very Low
Wednesday Very Low


There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none
are expected to develop over the next three days. However, next Saturday and
Sunday a weak low could form off the north Kimberley and move westwards.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby floppy » Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:29 am

Fu Manchu wrote:It is approaching at a huge rate.

Fu Manchu wrote:In fact the dash for water is even more evident in this animation showing it's existence start to finish over the last 7 days
.

go man go !!
you can never always sometimes tell
when you least expect the most

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:23 am

Yeah that track has changed, also thought the S/SW band from it was going to make it here overnight but it dissipated :ymsigh:

Waiting on rainfall this week :ympray:
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:12 pm

Looks like someone should open a short term red water rafting business in or around Laverton.
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby brayden » Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:21 pm

Like the area that has exploded SE/E of the low, that all just may track down this way :D

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:49 pm

The radar since 12am 20th Jan till 10am 22nd Jan.
PortHedland.
The centre of the low clearly evident.
How many times will we see a situation like this? Not many if any. a low approaching the coast from the opposite direction we might normally see a tropical low approach from.
Beautiful structure still.
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... 1390272000

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