Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

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Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:22 pm

BOM have issued a watch for a Low west of the North Kimberley coast.

Forecast Path http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

WAtch

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:16 pm WST on Thursday 21 November 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Wyndham to Beagle Bay.

At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
870 kilometres northwest of Broome and
960 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and
moving southeast at 11 kilometres per hour towards the West Kimberley coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday.

The low is not expected to cause gales during Thursday or Friday. Gales may
develop along the north Kimberley coast on Saturday as the system approaches
the coast. Overnight Saturday into Sunday it is likely to brush the northern
Kimberley coast. During Sunday it is likely to weaken as it approaches the west
coast of the Top End.

Rainfall from this system is likely to be confined to coastal areas. Even in
coastal areas, rainfall totals are expected to be less than is typical with a
tropical low or cyclone.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Beagle Bay and Wyndham should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 116.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 21 November.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:14 pm

It's a girl. TC Allessia has been named but she is expected to only be a Category 1 system as she tracks East.

Track forecast http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:32 am

It looks like TC Allessia is a real non event. Not much wind and not much rain with the satellite picture showing only a small circular band of cloud.
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Nov 24, 2013 6:36 am

Troughton Is recording some reasonable winds. Around 90k's. Kalumburu still not recording much. It's more a really solid group of thunderstorms that is doing an impersonation of a TC.
I see it's expected to park up in the top end, flooding must be on the minds of Katherine resident.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Benni.G. » Wed Nov 27, 2013 7:45 pm

Yes, wasn't much from it at all, barely a Cat 1. At least it kept us entertained for the week end and it might be back again next week :-w
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Nov 29, 2013 6:33 am

It was back, but then it wasn't

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby chartphred » Wed Dec 18, 2013 9:05 am

Ah yes! Its name is .... Bruce! (said with an exaggerated C ! )
That conjures up some TV skits of old....
People argue, Nature acts.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Dec 21, 2013 7:48 pm

Keep watch on the monsoon trough this coming week. A suss low should make an appearance near Darwin and track toward the Kimberley.
Benni has some good thoughts on it's possible development.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Sun Dec 22, 2013 10:54 pm

The 3 day outlook indicates that there is a moderate chance TC Christine could form on Christmas Day.

Outlook from BOM. http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Tue Dec 24, 2013 3:50 pm

Still not yet a named system but there is already a warning out;

See BOM ;

Warning
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDWP0004.txt

Track Map
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDWP0006.shtml
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Dec 24, 2013 4:03 pm

Checkout this image posted by two Canadian storm chasers in the NT.
https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=590192057703465

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Sat Dec 28, 2013 5:53 am

The latest forecast track map has the system targeting Karratha Monday night Tuesday morning.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Delivery of a bouncing baby Christine is expected by 2pm today.












***Edit see this thread for progression on Cyclone Christine viewtopic.php?f=169&t=2381
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:40 pm

Latest BoM forecast does feature a suss low Sth of Java on Saturday.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... u&model=CG

However ECMWF not confident of it forming
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... date!step/

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:41 pm

BoM wrote:Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:25 pm WST on Sunday 5 January 2014
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 8 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:



There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are
expected to develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cylone being in the Western Region on:
Monday Very Low
Tuesday Very Low
Wednesday Very Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Jan 10, 2014 2:08 pm

EC not really too phased by the low in the North of Australia:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/


http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml wrote:Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:31 pm WST on Friday 10 January 2014
for the period until midnight WST Monday 13 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Cyclone risk increasing next week.

A weak low has formed northeast of the Top End and is expected to move slowly
west over the weekend. By Monday the low is expected to be either moving into
the Timor Sea or across the Northern Territory. It is not expected to move into
the region (west of 125E) before Tuesday. If the low moves into the Timor Sea,
the risk of a cyclone will increase from Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:
Saturday Very Low
Sunday Very Low
Monday Very Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Jan 10, 2014 2:15 pm

BoM ACCESS model
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... ndex.shtml

Image

Image

EC seems to show a similar run to some extent. (As in favouring a tropical low moving into the Kimberley then Pilbara before it reaches cyclone intensity.)

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:04 pm

Well someone's gotta say the catch phrase.
"This might come down the west coast"
The ECMWF forecast looking at this scenario for 22nd and 23rd. I'll go and say something that may or may not cause me to eat my hat but, it's not going to happen.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

23rd Jan
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:10 pm

Same run also places a tropical low in the Gulf and (something that is in agreement with BoM's ACCESS run) another tropical low kicking off in the Bismark Sea and wandering down to NZ.

BoM's ACCESS forecast (Not sure what Auswave shows) is on similar forecast up as far as Sunday at this stage.
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:37 pm

This system has similarities with Christine.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2013/2014

Postby mackerelmauler » Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:16 pm

Fu Manchu wrote:Well someone's gotta say the catch phrase.
"This might come down the west coast"
The ECMWF forecast looking at this scenario for 22nd and 23rd. I'll go and say something that may or may not cause me to eat my hat but, it's not going to happen.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

23rd Jan
Image


I know it's not going to happen but I sure would like it to happen. Rain any rain at all above 5 mm would be enjoyed.
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