Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby schofield12 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:28 pm

SimonB wrote:Schofield12, the SW quadrant of a TC is the 'worst' for storm surge:

"The generation of storm surges with tropical cyclones relates to a number of factors such as the drop in pressure, which creates an upward bulge in water in the middle of the storm of up to one metre; the size and intensity of the storm; and the speed of forward movement," says Professor Nick Harvey an expert on coastal processes at Adelaide University. "The forward-left quadrant of the storm is the most dangerous in the Southern Hemisphere, because this is where the forward movement and the clockwise spiral of gale force winds pile up water ahead of the storm."

http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/ ... s-form.htm


Wow, thanks very much Simon! Very informative! :D

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:49 pm

Thanks Simon for the info :)

Also big ups to the crew at 28Storms.com The latest video analysis is posted:
http://28storms.com/cyclone/cyclone-rus ... t-hedland/
http://28storms.com/cyclone/

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Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:04 am

Via ABC:
"#TCRusty off the #WA coast, is intensifying and unpredictable says the Weather Bureau http://t.co/j5DMaJOEae via @abcNorthwestwa #cyclone"

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:28 am

The whole Indian Ocean animation featuring #tcRUSTY and Developing low near Cocos Is.
http://t.co/HspvZ18xfI
http://t.co/L8wgBqn7pb

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:31 am

"RT @disasteranimals: List of animal rescues/shelters in Western Australia http://t.co/outqxU0b7H"

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Tue Feb 26, 2013 6:54 am

Well the large eye has not contracted overnight, but it is looking much more circular. I'm not sure that it has too much more time to intensify before it starts feeling land effects. This would be good news for pardoo etc. hope I'm right.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Tue Feb 26, 2013 7:12 am

The tropical low near Cocos is is investigation area 18S should be declared a TC in the next day or so. JTWC is expecting it to track back towards WA

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby chartphred » Tue Feb 26, 2013 9:03 am

I cannot help but wonder at the politics behind the decisions 'not' to award WA a single doppler radar since it was rolled out. We have the largest infrastructure and busiest ports in the nation (Take Port Hedland as an example) yet not a single doppler. The bias is astounding. Be interesting to see how loud the shouting will be if Port Hedland cops a hammering from this storm for a decent radar... Just wondering if there should be at least two? one at Dampier and one at Broome, would it cover the gap?
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby silvercloud » Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:20 am

Latest track map!

Image

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby jcantelo » Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:19 pm

Short video from my brothers place in Port Hedland.

http://youtu.be/fykjviNKX4s
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:09 pm

Eye has not really contracted anymore judging by Radar imagry. next decent MW satellite pass is not until 10:00Z (about 4 hrs from now) but it is clear that some of the largest convection cells are now coming over land and that has to reduce the likely hood of further strengthening (fingers crossed). That said it is such a large system, and such a large part of it is stalled over warm seas in low shear, a little land interaction may not cause it too much damage. Vis and IR satellite images how a large elongated eye ... with outflow ridges, and good banding. almost hints that the south western eyewall is already at the coast, although the radar images dont show the same.

Image

Interesting that the BoM track is heading more towards the GFS tracks previously with another large westward shift in the track in the latest update. hope it stays there.
Stay safe everyone in PH and surroundings, it will be a rough night :(

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:23 pm


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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Storm Wolf » Tue Feb 26, 2013 3:29 pm

What a beast.

Happened to hear Steve Brooks on Mix 94.5 this morning - bit of a surprise. Said at 9am it hadn't hit the coast yet but wind was (if I remember rightly) 150km/h. Obviously worse by now.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby silvercloud » Tue Feb 26, 2013 3:44 pm

BOM and DFES have been saying on ABC radio that he won't cross til tomorrow arvo/evening. Steve was also on ABC radio yesterday and today.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

Postby von-Kármán » Tue Feb 26, 2013 5:13 pm

eye beginning to tighten down a bit now, picking up a bit more speed

Latest MW shows good symettry in a massive eyewall!
Image

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

Postby SimonB » Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:03 pm

Gotta give Steve credit for, I assume, giving the media what they want. Be warned though, they can be a hard mistress :-)
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

Postby Blue Skies » Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:06 pm

That's a pretty big eye on it. You could be easily fooled by it if you didn't know what was going on if it went over you.
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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:29 pm

Image

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

Postby TC_Ben » Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:57 pm

The latest satellite image shows the clearest eye and best defined/strongest looking structure Rusty has had yet:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17S/flash-rbtop-short.html
Image

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

Postby Lert » Tue Feb 26, 2013 9:37 pm

Would have been an interesting day out on Bedout Island, it's been just in/out of the southern eye wall all day. A pity the machine out there seems to be broken..
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