Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Champagne Supernova » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:23 am

Not looking too good for Port Hedland and surrounds. The thread title is wrong it's Feb 2013 not Feb 2012.

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:45 am

Fortunately looks like it will pass to east of ph. If it passes to the west the storm surge could be enormous.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:52 am

Image

Shows a hit to the west for Port Headland. If it hits to the east of PH it would be much better, but if it is even slightly west as JTWC is predicting then it will be bad ... really bad. The storm is so slow moving the storm surge on the eastern side will be very large indeed.

There is a fairly large divergence in the dynamic model tacks with some showing a sharp turn westwards as Rusty approaches the coast (Esp GFS).

Some outer banding now evident and the convection is beginning to accumulate near the LLCC ... watch him develop today, it will be impressive, CDO already covering LLCC. :D

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While PH are in some trouble here, this will be an impressive storm to watch develop over the next day or two.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby brayden » Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:47 am

Welcome back von-Kármán :)

Whether it hits east or west of Port Hedland, its still going to be bad esp. with any region to experience the surge on the eastern side of Rusty.

Some of you may know that Jordan Cantelo, Hannah Weddell and Steve Brooks are going to Port Hedland. Jordan was going up originally to see his bro, just so happens the cyc. formed lol. and hannah and steve are up for the experience. They are about to board plane.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby adamD » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:10 am

Been looking at the models and some are showing a weak ridge around Perth in the next 2-3 days that could stall the TC just off the coast and track it west slightly. If that comes true Pt Hedland could be experiencing destructive winds for over 36hours which would be deadly. Looking at that data I prolly would be advising ppl to get out rather than flying in. Will have to keep an eye out on the next run and see what it does.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby davo » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:14 am

Yeah it's pretty concerning the speed of movement (or predicted lack of it) and the intensity forecast - up to cat 4 before hitting the coast very close to PH, according to the BOM. Ouch! Watch out fellas, keep your heads down.

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 25, 2013 1:47 pm

von-Kármán wrote:Fortunately looks like it will pass to east of ph. If it passes to the west the storm surge could be enormous.

A seriously scary scenario there.
A real worry not seeing too many major features moving this at any speed. The volumes of rain forecast is going to turn that region into an inland sea.

Landsat image:
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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 25, 2013 1:56 pm

I'm pretty concerned for those folks that have inserted themselves in a very nasty and scary situation. The morality of doing that aside, I really hope they don't get hurt. It's really worrying. No matter how skilled someone is at chasing, it's remote and there are way too many factors that can't be controlled or managed to reduce risk like with regular chasing.


I was expecting this event to happen quite quickly but with such little interaction with any troughs on the cards it's all in slow motion.

Can't recall which model started suggesting a more westerly trend the other day, but what seemed unlikely is now slightly more likely.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby schofield12 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:28 pm

Can you guys please explain to me why it would be much worse for this system to hit the west of PH rather than the east? Does that have to do with the geography of the land (somehow I doubt this) or differing strengths on the western and eastern flanks of the system?

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby adamD » Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:02 pm

Storm surge as most of the destructive winds are coming from offshore rather than inland east of the system. Also inflow aswell as the bands will be coming in from the ocean.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby schofield12 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:20 pm

adamD wrote:Storm surge as most of the destructive winds are coming from offshore rather than inland on the west of the system. Also inflow aswell as the bands will be coming in from the ocean.


Well that makes a whole lot of sense. Pretty silly question on my part really.

Thanks for that!

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:42 pm

Cat 5 being a real possibility.
A cat 5, on the coast in no hurry to move and right over or near a major town. Not cool.

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:54 pm

Broome AP closed. PortHedland closed as well.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby schofield12 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:00 pm

Current view from Broome, posted by a friend of mine on Facebook:

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby peterperthh » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:48 pm

East or west of PH, the models keep swapping around.

Latest GFS has the cyclone running west along the coast near PH again. Latest BOM track map has moved the path west as well, on top of PH.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Pete » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:35 pm

Latest GFS has him pushing in a more SW'ly direction after making landfall and ending up somewhere north of Perth as a rainbearing depression.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Tom M (Chaser 80) » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:55 pm

Hi Guys, going to weigh into this topic now. So a couple have gone upto PH to chase. Looking at it now im very happy i decided not to go, as it was a possibility for me too go. This thing looks simply AWFUL! Well beautiful, but awful for all involved in PH and surroundings. I would be outta there if i lived there.
This is such a huge, static system, that its only going too be bad for all living there. Just saying.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:11 pm

Latest BoM (9pm) and jtwc track maps have it further to the east of PH ... Fingers crossed

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:19 pm

Convection now wrapping the llcc watch over the next 6-8 hrs as it further contracts and intensifies. Latest MW shot shows a very large poorly formed eye that will wobble a bit over the next few hours as it contracts intensifying in the process. Watch for increased outflow and a reduction in the size of the core of the system.

Shear still very low and weak steering forces. This combined with the poor current structure make it very hard to discern actual motion, and therefore model input must be a little uncertain. GFSstill going for a more westerly track ...

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby SimonB » Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:50 pm

Schofield12, the SW quadrant of a TC is the 'worst' for storm surge:

"The generation of storm surges with tropical cyclones relates to a number of factors such as the drop in pressure, which creates an upward bulge in water in the middle of the storm of up to one metre; the size and intensity of the storm; and the speed of forward movement," says Professor Nick Harvey an expert on coastal processes at Adelaide University. "The forward-left quadrant of the storm is the most dangerous in the Southern Hemisphere, because this is where the forward movement and the clockwise spiral of gale force winds pile up water ahead of the storm."

http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/ ... s-form.htm
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