Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:56 pm

Pretty sure under our breath, this may nudge a 5. Considering the short life cycle of this cyclone from birth to crossing, to intensify to a 4 is one hell of a feat.
Toasty warm water out there too.

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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:46 pm

Latest video update from 28storms
http://28storms.com/cyclone/

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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Benni.G. » Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:57 pm

davo wrote:Yeah Fu, then some models have it curving back towards the west and getting some of the SWLD. If that happens it'll be a first, as far as I can remember (but the BOM have showers in the forecast for Thurs-Fri in Perth). Can anyone explain the mechanism behind that, were it to happen? Maybe this should be taken up in the SWLD thread, not sure.

As far as I know, the incoming high pressure system would steer it sw , as the ridge turns anti clock wise
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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:26 am

Forecast rainfall Tuesday
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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:04 am

Expected to become a Cat one just after lunch today.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby jcantelo » Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:03 am

Okie Dokie,
This is certainly looking like a fairly decent system, that looks like its going to pack a punch.
I am due to fly out Monday morning for Port Hedland, a trip that has been planned for a short while now, long before the cyclone was even thought of. I was originally suppose to fly on Thursday, but since the models showed a potential Pilbara coast impact, I knew a Thursday flight was fairly unlikely to happen, and being the only opportunity I will have to see my brother for a while, I thought it would be a good idea to fly earlier, in front of the cyclone.
I just want to make it clear that, I was always heading up there, cyclone or not.
Saying that, all my camera gear is coming up with me, so might as well get a few images and document it eh. Hoping for a cross away from Port Hedland, because a cat 4/5 isn't going to be pretty at all.
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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:36 am

That's cool Jordan.
All most are really concerned about is you and your safety.
That said, to hear anyone has been hurt or in serious danger is not nice.

Please stay safe.

Also of equal importance is you enjoy a few beers/yarns/ good food with your brother :)

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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:36 am


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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:54 pm

28storms video update:
http://28storms.com/cyclone_mobile/

Some models now favouring the cyclone not being pulled inland and more easterly by the passing trough. Instead wandering a little more west of PortHedland.
That becomes a worst case scenario. Port Hedland then copping the strongest winds and highest storm surge.

Fortunately the more favoured models are sticking with the trough drawing it east and inland from PortHedland.


Being anywhere along 80mile beach and inland of there would be seriously scary. It's so flat and remote out there. You would be forgiven for thinking your gonna die.

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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Blue Skies » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:41 pm

It is officially named Rusty now, I notice.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:43 pm

TC Rusty has come into existence.

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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:49 pm

Sorry I'll delete that later.

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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 4:18 pm

David Stoate is in the Kimberley.
The view from his station
"Steady rain now but not much wind yet as #TCRusty approaches. http://t.co/bvWR865anG"

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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 4:24 pm

Via DFES: Prepare for flooding in the DeGrey river area
http://bit.ly/X4Rgqr

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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 4:43 pm

Elise Batchelor wrote:
"Tropical Cyclone Rusty - Red Dog returns to the Pilbara! Port Hedland on blue, wind cranking up the volume already. http://t.co/B1UerMOVgo"

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Blue Skies » Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:47 pm

Latest track map has a rather large circle for destructive winds with Port Hedland going to cop the edge of it. I know it's too early to really tell, but it don't look good.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Blue Skies » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:11 pm

9pm update still not looking good for Port Hedland. At least it looks like a daytime crossing, sometime Thursday, at the moment.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:18 pm

What is interesting is that BoM models seem to be favouring a track progressively further west to what it was preferring. Maybe we are seeing increased probability of the trough not pulling it through? (or as much?)

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:41 am

Big upgrade overnight! Has rusty stalling off the coast, intensifying and then crossing.

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2012

Postby von-Kármán » Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:37 am

Fu Manchu wrote:28storms video update:
http://28storms.com/cyclone_mobile/

Some models now favouring the cyclone not being pulled inland and more easterly by the passing trough. Instead wandering a little more west of PortHedland.
That becomes a worst case scenario. Port Hedland then copping the strongest winds and highest storm surge.

Fortunately the more favoured models are sticking with the trough drawing it east and inland from PortHedland.


Being anywhere along 80mile beach and inland of there would be seriously scary. It's so flat and remote out there. You would be forgiven for thinking your gonna die.

wtf is this zeron time he keeps talking about??? It is Zulu time isn't it??

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