Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty Feb 2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:28 am

That's OK. Thanks for letting us
We need to get tapatalk working better with this forum so it can be used as easily as FB or twitter from any device.


Anyway lets check some of the forecast model runs.
ACCESS:
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.acce ... delType=20

Cola seems to have neglected to include a monsoon trough. What's with that?
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.co&m ... delType=18

ECMWF seems to be the one to watch indicating the system to skirt the Kimberley and cross near Broome as what looks like a Cat2 or so:
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.e&mo ... delType=14

Wetterzentrale still going for a similar run as a few days ago but have backed off on the strength of the low:
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... delType=16
I can't really see this being an outcome at all.

BoM's ACCESS and EC runs will be the most likely.
TC Sandy or TC Rusty first? it will be a close one.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Lanibear » Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:05 am

Mmm well it will be Rusty first, the competition is on between the two systems as to which gets that name! :-?? hard to tell...

Place a bet? :-bd haha

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby fatherdougal2.0 » Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:58 pm


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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Feb 22, 2013 3:02 pm

It's a pity some of that article was written how it was. Their predicting was hardly a stir. We have all been more than aware of a cyclone to form since last week. BoM more than anyone.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby peterperthh » Fri Feb 22, 2013 3:51 pm

This afternoons model runs courtesy of Weatherzone:

Dont know whats up with the aggressive diamond shape on the EC run? Is that an error?

Still looking like a significant event.


Image

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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:40 pm

re forecasting of cyclone as mentioned in that article link by WA Today:
"@TheWAWG Check this out from Jan 31st "By the end of February the tropical cyclone risk will increase" http://t.co/zgJCNeQilo"

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:15 pm

Thank you WA Today for editing that article.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby peterperthh » Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:24 pm

BOM is now releasing information bulletins on the cyclone predicted to form off the Pilbara/Kimberley coast.

Should we open a specific thread?

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:18 pm WST on Friday 22 February 2013
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 2 pm WST near 13.5S 121.0E,
that is 385 km north northwest of Cape Leveque and 515 km north northwest of
Broome and moving west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday as it tracks to the
southwest. However, it should be sufficiently offshore not to cause gales in
coastal areas on the weekend.

The system should then approach the coast and develop and there is a
significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone and
impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley early next week. People in the Pilbara and
Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm WST.


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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:32 pm

peterperthh wrote:This afternoons model runs courtesy of Weatherzone:

Dont know whats up with the aggressive diamond shape on the EC run? Is that an error?

Still looking like a significant event.


Image

EC getting a bit bling.
I'm sure it will correct itself on the next run.
Might be cyclone shaped.

Starting to see the models come closer to each other. Stating too :)

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:34 pm

Keep checking in at 28Storms.com
They will start their coverage of this event soon enough. They have been sharing some info via FB

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby peterperthh » Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:47 pm

Fu Manchu wrote:Keep checking in at 28Storms.com
They will start their coverage of this event soon enough. They have been sharing some info via FB


28Storms has a video out this afternoon already Fu.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aZrkCP2Bjc&list=UUJalVvzDyEpGjD4HtnOVkVA&index=1

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Blue Skies » Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:06 pm

"Troughiness". Or perhaps it's "troughy-ness." Is that a valid word? Love their work, anyway.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby peterperthh » Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:12 am

Updates from this morning from weatherzone models and the BOM

Image

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby peterperthh » Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:52 am

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 8:42 am WST on Saturday 23 February 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier.

At 8:00 am WST a developing tropical low was estimated to be
440 kilometres northwest of Broome and
570 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour, parallel to the west Kimberley
coast.

The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday as it tracks to
the southwest. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas on the
weekend but gales may commence on Monday.

During Monday the system will intensify as it begins to approach the coast.
There is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical
cyclone and impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley on Tuesday or Wednesday.
People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather
forecasts and warnings.
DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. People between Cape Leveque and Dampier should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.2 degrees South 119.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Saturday 23 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone


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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:34 am

Peter, yes we should start a new thread :)
Done.

Thanks for posting the 28 Cyclones Link. :)

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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:56 am

Have been looking at more models, including NOGAPS, UKMetOffice, GFS, CMC and others.
All are following the same outcome of rapid development and quick crossing. Not likely to see much suspense and drama with waiting to see where it crosses.
Poor old Sandfire Roadhouse looks to be the place or 80mile Caravan Park.

They get flogged by cyclones and it seems they have to totally rebuild after each one.

Most models favouring the low to move into the interior and looks like a lot of rain with it.
Hope some of the indigenous communities out there get to safe ground away from flood waters.

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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby davo » Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:19 pm

Yeah Fu, then some models have it curving back towards the west and getting some of the SWLD. If that happens it'll be a first, as far as I can remember (but the BOM have showers in the forecast for Thurs-Fri in Perth). Can anyone explain the mechanism behind that, were it to happen? Maybe this should be taken up in the SWLD thread, not sure.

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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 23, 2013 1:40 pm

Rebecca in has sent us a photo of damage in Broome already.
Image

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Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 23, 2013 3:44 pm

davo wrote:Yeah Fu, then some models have it curving back towards the west and getting some of the SWLD. If that happens it'll be a first, as far as I can remember (but the BOM have showers in the forecast for Thurs-Fri in Perth). Can anyone explain the mechanism behind that, were it to happen? Maybe this should be taken up in the SWLD thread, not sure.

At the end of a few model runs it does that. Though as we get closer to the day, they not doubt will change.
Models like UKmet don't seem to have 'local knowledge' for want of a better term.

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Re: Tropical Low1 Feb 2012

Postby peterperthh » Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:50 pm

Model update for this afternoon courtesy of Weatherzone.com.au

A little bit of difference in both the time and location of any land crossing for the system in the models.

Image

Latest BOM track map:

Image

The first BOM technical bulletin is out for the system:

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0651 UTC 23/02/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 118.5E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [251 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/1800: 16.3S 118.1E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 996
+24: 24/0600: 17.0S 118.0E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 991
+36: 24/1800: 17.4S 118.1E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 25/0600: 17.9S 118.3E: 110 [205]: 060 [110]: 977
+60: 25/1800: 18.5S 118.8E: 130 [240]: 080 [150]: 958
+72: 26/0600: 19.3S 119.3E: 150 [280]: 095 [175]: 944

]REMARKS:
Dvorak DT of 2.5 obtained on last couple of VIS images based on 0.4-0.5 Curved
Band wrap on last few images. The system was assigned an initial classification
of T1.5 at 18Z. [T1.5 based on very favourable conditions for development]. MET
and PAT are at 2.0 and FT is assigned [and in any case constrained] to 2.0. No
objective intensity analysis aids available.

The system has shown a marked increase in organisation even against the diurnal
trend. Shear is low, SSTs are very high and there is not expected to be any dry
air. Consequently it is expected to intensify steadily with a period of rapid
intensification likely at some stage. given the very favourable
conditions.Although outflow is confined to northern quadrants at present, by
Monday the system should develop an outflow channel to the south.

The system is expected to move slowly to the southwest before turning southwards
and then southeast as a mid-level trough passing to the south erodes the ridge.
Model guidance still shows some spread but amongst models that intensify the
system there is better agreement.



944hPa predicted with very favourable conditions and potential rapid intensification

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