Tropical Cyclone Narelle

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby lykeeze » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:55 am

Image

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby von-Kármán » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:15 pm

Yep eye definitely forming now ... will be interesting to see if it clears properly.
Nice pic lykeeze, for others, you can animate it and much more here: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/sector/a2

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Rex » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:17 pm

Hey Lyjeeze

Is that cyclone photo enlarge or is that really the beast?
Its getting massive
Any chance of perth getting some decent weather ?
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle (Technical Discussion Only)

Postby brayden » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:18 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 11:54 am WST Friday 11 January 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 13.

Image


Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas between Roebourne and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast. Destructive winds with gusts to 140 kilometres could develop in the Exmouth area on Sunday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast during Sunday and Monday.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Roebourne to Coral Bay including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay should be taking precautions.

ALL CLEAR: People in the Whim Creek area are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 11:53 am WST on Friday 11 January 2013


A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Roebourne to Coral Bay,
including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon.

At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 4 was estimated to be
505 kilometres north of Exmouth and
505 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest
and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas
between Roebourne and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral
Bay on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara
coast. Destructive winds with gusts to 140 kilometres could develop in the
Exmouth area on Sunday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara
coast should ease from the east later in the day

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with
isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne
over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas.
Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast during Sunday and
Monday.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Roebourne to Coral Bay
including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier, Onslow,
Exmouth and Coral Bay should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in the Whim Creek area are advised that the threat of strong
winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 113.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 946 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 11 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby von-Kármán » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:22 pm

Rex wrote:Hey Lyjeeze

Is that cyclone photo enlarge or is that really the beast?
Its getting massive
Any chance of perth getting some decent weather ?

It is the cyclone ... you can look at it yourself here: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/sector/a2

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Pete » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:24 pm

She's a beauty now! Check out that eye.
Image

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Rainbow Bright » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:50 pm

von-Kármán wrote:I wish people would post the BoM updates in some other thread ... they clutter this up and dont provide anything other than a historical record.

Latest MW and composite shows excellent internal structure even if the CDO is covering the eye at the moment.
Image

Pretty decent chance the eye will clear in the next few hours.


Honestly it's all going to be historical data when it's over and it's all about the same event. I would rather see it all in one thread

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:56 pm

True, but we will merge the threads together later, but for now, we'll see how this goes.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle (Technical Discussion Only)

Postby brayden » Fri Jan 11, 2013 3:09 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 3:02 pm WST Friday 11 January 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.

Image


Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.

ALL CLEAR: People in the Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier area are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Friday


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Friday 11 January 2013


A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay,
including Onslow and Exmouth.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon.

The Cyclone WARNING from Roebourne to Mardie has been cancelled.

At 2:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 4 was estimated to be
495 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and
810 kilometres north of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest
and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas
between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later
on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind
gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone
takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara
coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with
isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne
over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas
possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later
Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including
Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in the Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier
area are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.6 degrees South 113.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 947 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Friday 11 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby davo » Fri Jan 11, 2013 3:18 pm

Mmm, she's purdy now - well-defined eye. Well I guess her purdy-ness depends on if she's bearing down on you or not.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle (Technical Discussion Only)

Postby brayden » Fri Jan 11, 2013 3:40 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 11/01/2013


Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 113.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 947 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 200 nm [370 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS SST:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 11/1800: 18.4S 112.1E: 045 [080]: 100 [185]: 930
+24: 12/0600: 19.4S 111.6E: 070 [130]: 105 [195]: 925
+36: 12/1800: 20.3S 111.0E: 090 [165]: 105 [195]: 924
+48: 13/0600: 21.4S 110.4E: 110 [200]: 105 [195]: 925
+60: 13/1800: 22.9S 109.6E: 130 [235]: 080 [150]: 950
+72: 14/0600: 25.1S 108.8E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 974

REMARKS:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified during the day with a definitive
eye now evident on visible and infra-red imagery. Intensity of 90 knots based on
the three-hour average Dvorak DT of 5.5 [eye pattern], although the latest
[0530UTC] IR image could indicate a DT as high as 6.5 [W surround, OW/W eye
addition]. FT/CI =5.5.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and
the system could reach category 5 intensity overnight based on its current
trend.
The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler SSTs from
late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off
the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the southwest for the next 24 hours and then a more
south southwest track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone
sufficiently off the coast that coastal areas will only experience the outer
edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and
Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into
early next week.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby von-Kármán » Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:03 pm

We should be getting a new TMI scan (Microwave imagining sensor) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite (TRMM) soon (overpass was just over an hour ago at 6:54Z) which should give a good indication of how solid she has become in the last few hours. Really quite a large eye for a storm of her size.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Cyclone Alby » Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:20 pm

Interesting to see if narelle gets to a Cat 5, just depends on the wind shear as well.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby von-Kármán » Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:44 pm

And the TRMM data has come in. Interestingly she is still a little lop sided with the bulk of the convection in the western sector, while the eastern side is a little patchy. Still a well formed storm with a nice strong eye
Image

She's in medium vertical sheer at the moment but this reduces towards the coast, and may encourage intensification ... if she approaches the coast. Hate to think what she'd be if shear was below 10kts!!
Image

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby i.like.weather » Fri Jan 11, 2013 5:12 pm

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in the Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier area are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Pete » Fri Jan 11, 2013 5:22 pm

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle (Technical Discussion Only)

Postby brayden » Fri Jan 11, 2013 6:04 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 5:43 pm WST Friday 11 January 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 15.

Image


Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.

ALL CLEAR: People in the Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier area are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.


The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 5:44 pm WST on Friday 11 January 2013


A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon.

At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 4 was estimated to be
475 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and
790 kilometres north of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest
and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas
between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later
on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind
gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone
takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara
coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with
isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne
over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas
possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later
Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including
Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in the Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier
area are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 112.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 942 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 11 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Cyclone Alby » Fri Jan 11, 2013 6:13 pm

Pete wrote:Image



Next week could be interesting, wind and rainfall wise.
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2012 YTD 716.6 mm
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2014 YTD 840.2mm
2015 YTD 798.8mm

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby everclr » Fri Jan 11, 2013 7:53 pm

Although it is unlikely, I dearly wish that Narelle pays a visit to Perth still in the form of a TC, although obviously downgraded. As The Clash said in one of their songs it would "liven up the air".
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby von-Kármán » Fri Jan 11, 2013 8:41 pm

Image
She is looking even less symmetric now ... I wonder what is eating away at the eastern side?

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