Tropical Cyclone Narelle

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby brayden » Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:03 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 2:40 pm WST Monday 7 January 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

Image


The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Remarks:

The tropical low is located southwest of Timor and is expected to develop further as it moves in a generally southwest direction, reaching cyclone intensity on either Tuesday or Wednesday well north of the Australian mainland. On Thursday the system may take a more south southwest track and approach the west Pilbara coast.

The developing tropical low is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.

Name: Tropical Low

Details:
Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm January 7 tropical low 11.4S 120.9E 110
+6hr 8 pm January 7 tropical low 11.7S 120.3E 135
+12hr 2 am January 8 tropical low 12.0S 119.6E 155
+18hr 8 am January 8 1 12.2S 119.0E 180
+24hr 2 pm January 8 1 12.4S 118.5E 200
+36hr 2 am January 9 2 12.7S 117.5E 240
+48hr 2 pm January 9 3 13.2S 116.9E 275

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Monday
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Re: Tropical Low (Outlook Cyclone Narelle?)

Postby adamD » Mon Jan 07, 2013 7:08 pm

Will be the one to watch over the coming days. Early days still but this could have a impact on the SWLD depending where it tracks.
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Re: Tropical Low (Outlook Cyclone Narelle?)

Postby brayden » Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:03 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 8:59 pm WST Monday 7 January 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

Image



The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Remarks:

The tropical low is located southwest of Timor and is expected to develop further as it moves in a generally southwest direction, reaching cyclone intensity on either Tuesday or Wednesday well north of the Australian mainland. On Thursday the system may take a more south southwest track and approach the west Pilbara coast.

The developing tropical low is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.

Name: Tropical Low

Details:
Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm January 7 tropical low 11.1S 120.9E 110
+6hr 2 am January 8 tropical low 11.4S 120.3E 135
+12hr 8 am January 8 1 11.7S 119.5E 155
+18hr 2 pm January 8 1 11.9S 118.8E 180
+24hr 8 pm January 8 1 12.0S 118.1E 200
+36hr 8 am January 9 3 12.3S 117.4E 240
+48hr 8 pm January 9 3 13.1S 116.9E 275

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Tuesday
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Re: Tropical Low (Outlook Cyclone Narelle?)

Postby brayden » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:08 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 8:48 am WST Tuesday 8 January 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

Image




The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Remarks:

The tropical low is located south of the Lesser Sunda Islands and is expected to develop further as it moves in a generally southwest direction, reaching cyclone intensity later today or early tomorrow, well north of the Australian mainland. On Thursday the system may take a more south southwest track and approach the west Pilbara coast.

The developing tropical cyclone is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.

Name: Tropical Low

Details:
Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude (decimal deg.) Longitude (decimal deg.) Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 am January 8 tropical low 12.0S 119.3E 110
+6hr 2 pm January 8 1 12.2S 118.5E 135
+12hr 8 pm January 8 1 12.3S 117.7E 155
+18hr 2 am January 9 1 12.4S 117.3E 180
+24hr 8 am January 9 2 12.5S 116.9E 200
+36hr 8 pm January 9 2 13.4S 116.3E 240
+48hr 8 am January 10 3 14.6S 116.0E 275

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Tuesday
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Re: Tropical Low (Outlook Cyclone Narelle?)

Postby brayden » Tue Jan 08, 2013 3:12 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 2:20 pm WST Tuesday 8 January 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

Image


The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Remarks:

The cyclone is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.

Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Details:
Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude(decimal deg.) Longitude(decimal deg.) Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm January 8 1 11.9S 118.4E 110
+6hr 8 pm January 8 1 12.0S 117.6E 135
+12hr 2 am January 9 1 12.1S 117.1E 155
+18hr 8 am January 9 2 12.2S 116.7E 180
+24hr 2 pm January 9 2 12.7S 116.4E 200
+36hr 2 am January 10 3 13.7S 116.0E 240
+48hr 2 pm January 10 3 15.0S 115.7E 275

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Tuesday
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Re: Tropical Low (Outlook Cyclone Narelle?)

Postby mackerelmauler » Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:52 pm

The Parents have indeed announced that the "baby" is a girl name Narelle.
Member of the Northern Suburbs Force Field Destruction Squad!

Supporter of the "Hagar the Horrible High pressure system" death squad.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Cyclone Alby » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:21 pm

Cat 2 already

Sat image is showing it building up, sst's quite up there quite warm.....more to feed on
Margaret River

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Pete » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:26 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:08 pm WST on Tuesday 8 January 2013
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (Category 2) was located at 8 pm WST near 12.3S 117.4E, that is 820 km northwest of Broome and moving west southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 am WST.


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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Pete » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:31 pm

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1308 UTC 08/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.3S
Longitude: 117.4E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [248 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 270 nm [500 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/0000: 12.7S 116.6E: 085 [155]: 060 [110]: 976
+24: 09/1200: 13.5S 116.1E: 110 [200]: 070 [130]: 967
+36: 10/0000: 14.6S 116.2E: 130 [240]: 075 [140]: 963
+48: 10/1200: 15.9S 115.8E: 150 [275]: 090 [165]: 950
+60: 11/0000: 17.3S 114.8E: 170 [310]: 095 [175]: 946
+72: 11/1200: 18.5S 113.7E: 185 [345]: 105 [195]: 932

REMARKS:
Position based on 1032UTC IR satellite image. Curvature of convective bands has
improved, giving a 0.8 wrap. Dvorak analysis DT=3.5. MET=3.0. FT based on
PAT=3.5. The system is becoming more organised as it moves southwest into an
area of reduced vertical wind shear.

The environment is favourable for further development with deep moisture, upper
divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification
is expected at the standard rate for 72 hours, reaching category 4 off the
northwest coast of WA, before weakening in the longer term as the system moves
over cooler waters.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1900 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby brayden » Wed Jan 09, 2013 5:46 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 3:13 am WST Wednesday 9 January 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

Image

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:08 am WST on Wednesday 9 January 2013
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (Category 2) was located at 2 am WST near 12.5S
117.0E, that is 830 km northwest of Broome and moving west southwest at 15
kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am WST.

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1931 UTC 08/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 117.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 270 nm [500 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/0600: 13.3S 116.3E: 085 [155]: 070 [130]: 968
+24: 09/1800: 14.3S 116.1E: 110 [200]: 090 [165]: 951
+36: 10/0600: 15.5S 115.9E: 130 [240]: 100 [185]: 941
+48: 10/1800: 16.9S 115.3E: 150 [275]: 105 [195]: 936
+60: 11/0600: 18.2S 114.3E: 170 [310]: 105 [195]: 933
+72: 11/1800: 19.4S 113.3E: 185 [345]: 105 [195]: 932
REMARKS:
Position based on 1406UTC scatterometer and earlier microwave images. A CDO has
formed with a convective burst over the LLCC. Peripheral banding in SW sector,
good outflow evident to north and west. An incipient eyewall is evident in
microwave imagery. Dvorak analysis based on PAT=4.0, as DT uncertain in embedded
centre pattern. The radius of gale has been extended based on a good Ascat pass.

The system is becoming more organised as it moves southwest into an area of
reduced vertical wind shear. The environment is favourable for further
development with deep moisture, broad-scale upper divergence and a vigorous
westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is forecast at greater
than the standard rate during the next 24-48 hours, with the cyclone reaching
category 4 off the northwest coast of WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0100 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby brayden » Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:24 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 9:09 am WST Wednesday 9 January 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 1.

Image

Remarks:

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr may develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow Friday morning as the cyclone moves closer to the coast, then extend west to Exmouth later Friday. The cyclone is rapidly intensifying and is likely to develop into a Severe Tropical Cyclone as it moves towards the Northwest Cape.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Whim Creek and Onslow should listen for the next advice.


PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 9:09 am WST on Wednesday 9 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Onslow.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 2 was estimated to be
900 kilometres north of Karratha and
1070 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr may develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek
and Onslow Friday morning as the cyclone moves closer to the coast, then extend
west to Exmouth later Friday. The cyclone is rapidly intensifying and is likely
to develop into a Severe Tropical Cyclone as it moves towards the Northwest
Cape.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Onslow should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 12.6 degrees South 116.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 976 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Wednesday 09 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Pete » Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:26 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1931 UTC 08/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 117.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 270 nm [500 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/0600: 13.3S 116.3E: 085 [155]: 070 [130]: 968
+24: 09/1800: 14.3S 116.1E: 110 [200]: 090 [165]: 951
+36: 10/0600: 15.5S 115.9E: 130 [240]: 100 [185]: 941
+48: 10/1800: 16.9S 115.3E: 150 [275]: 105 [195]: 936
+60: 11/0600: 18.2S 114.3E: 170 [310]: 105 [195]: 933
+72: 11/1800: 19.4S 113.3E: 185 [345]: 105 [195]: 932
REMARKS:
Position based on 1406UTC scatterometer and earlier microwave images. A CDO has
formed with a convective burst over the LLCC. Peripheral banding in SW sector,
good outflow evident to north and west. An incipient eyewall is evident in
microwave imagery. Dvorak analysis based on PAT=4.0, as DT uncertain in embedded
centre pattern. The radius of gale has been extended based on a good Ascat pass.

The system is becoming more organised as it moves southwest into an area of
reduced vertical wind shear. The environment is favourable for further
development with deep moisture, broad-scale upper divergence and a vigorous
westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is forecast at greater
than the standard rate during the next 24-48 hours, with the cyclone reaching
category 4 off the northwest coast of WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0100 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Pete » Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:39 am

Latest Sea Surface Temperatures.
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Latest IR imagery.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby brayden » Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:57 am

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 0146 UTC 09/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 116.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 280 nm [520 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/1200: 13.3S 116.1E: 055 [100]: 075 [140]: 964
+24: 10/0000: 14.5S 115.8E: 080 [145]: 090 [165]: 951
+36: 10/1200: 15.8S 115.5E: 100 [180]: 100 [185]: 941
+48: 11/0000: 17.2S 114.6E: 120 [220]: 105 [195]: 936
+60: 11/1200: 18.5S 113.6E: 140 [255]: 105 [195]: 932
+72: 12/0000: 19.2S 112.9E: 155 [290]: 105 [195]: 931

REMARKS:

Position based on 2330UTC satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer and
microwave images. Intensity of 60 knots is based on Dvorak MET and pattern
resulting in a CI of 4.0. CIMS AMSU and ADT are giving similar values.

Organization of convection has improved with vis imagery showing a CDO and
microwave imagery showing good banding, indicating rapid development is
occurring. Development is expected to continue in the next 24 to 36 hours under
low shear and strong outflow and then plateau as shear increases.

Motion has been to the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge
to the south. As the ridge moves east, the cyclone is expected to track to the
south southwest towards the Northwest Cape, although at this stage it may remain
off the northwest coast.

The outermost gales may commence on the central Pilbara coast on Friday morning
and extend to the west Pilbara coast later on Friday. Winds are likely to
increase on Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby brayden » Wed Jan 09, 2013 3:12 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 3:04 pm WST Wednesday 9 January 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 2.

Image

Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to develop further as it moves on its south southwest track towards the Northwest Cape. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including the Karratha area Friday morning, then extend west to Exmouth and Coral Bay later Friday or early Saturday. Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.
Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy rainfall possible.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.



PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2

Issued at 3:04 pm WST on Wednesday 9 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay,
including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

At 2:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 3 was estimated to be
840 kilometres north of Karratha and
1000 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
moving south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to develop further as it moves on its south
southwest track towards the Northwest Cape. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are
expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including
the Karratha area Friday morning, then extend west to Exmouth and Coral Bay
later Friday or early Saturday. Winds are likely to increase further during
Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.
Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with
isolated heavy rainfall possible.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 116.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 972 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Wednesday 09 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210



IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 09/01/2013


Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.2S
Longitude: 116.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS SST:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/1800: 14.1S 116.1E: 045 [080]: 080 [150]: 960
+24: 10/0600: 15.5S 115.8E: 070 [130]: 095 [175]: 946
+36: 10/1800: 16.8S 115.2E: 090 [165]: 100 [185]: 941
+48: 11/0600: 18.3S 114.4E: 110 [200]: 105 [195]: 933
+60: 11/1800: 19.3S 113.6E: 130 [235]: 105 [195]: 932
+72: 12/0600: 20.4S 113.2E: 145 [270]: 105 [195]: 931
REMARKS:
Position based on Vis imagery and earlier scatterometer and microwave images.
Convection has become more organised with an emerging eye on microwave imagery
and recent indications of a weak eye on Vis and IR. Dvorak DT varies between 4.0
to 4.5 based on IR embedded centre/eye [LG surround; B/W eye subtraction] and
vis curved band 1.3 or ragged eye [4.0]. CI determined at 4.5 indicating
intensity of 65 knots consistent with SATCON 72kn [1min mean] and microwave
pattern, although ADT remains too low.

Development is expected to continue in the next 24 to 36 hours under low to
moderate shear and strong outflow and then plateau.

Motion has now become south southwesterly which should generally continue for
the next few days. This takes the cyclone towards the Northwest Cape.

The outermost gales may commence on the central Pilbara coast on Friday morning
and extend to the west Pilbara coast later on Friday. Winds are likely to
increase on Saturday about the west Pilbara coast. A severe TC impact on the far
west Pilbara coast remains a possibility on the weekend.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Rex » Wed Jan 09, 2013 5:19 pm

Hey Guys

My guess of where Cyclone Narelle is heading is Carnavon, but a brush past exmouth on the way down.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby Rex » Wed Jan 09, 2013 5:21 pm

Also Perth hills and Moora is going to cop it as normal afterwards .
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby i.like.weather » Wed Jan 09, 2013 5:25 pm

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to develop further as it moves on its south southwest track towards the Northwest Cape. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including the Karratha area Friday morning, then extend west to Exmouth and Coral Bay later Friday or early Saturday. Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.
Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy rainfall possible.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby wiz » Wed Jan 09, 2013 8:39 pm

GFS now has it hugging the coast all the way down. This actually would not be good if it were to happen.


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Re: Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Postby brayden » Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:00 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 8:47 pm WST Wednesday 9 January 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 3.

Image


Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to develop further as it moves on its south southwest track towards the Northwest Cape. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including the Karratha area Friday morning, then extend west to Exmouth and Coral Bay later Friday or early Saturday. Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy falls possible, mainly in coastal parts.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to Mardie including Wickham, Roebourne, Point Sampson, Karratha and Dampier should be taking precautions.


PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:47 pm WST on Wednesday 9 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay

At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 3 was estimated to be
770 kilometres north of Karratha and
930 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to develop further as it moves on its
south southwest track towards the Northwest Cape. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h
are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow
including the Karratha area Friday morning, then extend west to Exmouth and
Coral Bay later Friday or early Saturday. Winds are likely to increase further
during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with
isolated heavy falls possible, mainly in coastal parts.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to Mardie including
Wickham, Roebourne, Point Sampson, Karratha and Dampier should be taking
precautions.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 116.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 971 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Thursday 10 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 1239 UTC 09/01/2013

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 116.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [198 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 971 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 10/0000: 14.9S 115.9E: 055 [100]: 085 [155]: 954
+24: 10/1200: 16.2S 115.5E: 080 [145]: 095 [175]: 944
+36: 11/0000: 17.5S 114.7E: 100 [180]: 100 [185]: 939
+48: 11/1200: 18.8S 113.9E: 120 [220]: 105 [195]: 930
+60: 12/0000: 19.8S 113.3E: 140 [255]: 105 [195]: 929
+72: 12/1200: 20.9S 113.0E: 155 [290]: 105 [195]: 929
REMARKS:
System has been difficult to locate this afternoon with no microwave passes.
Position based on a combination of imagery and persistence. Convection has
become slightly less organised this afternoon with an earlier weak eye
disappearing. DT/FT was 4.5 earlier in the afternoon. For later images DT has
been hard to assign and FT based on adjusted MET of 4.0. CI is held at 4.5 from
earlier analyses. This has fairly good agreement with SATCON estimates. ADT
remains too low.

Development is expected to continue in the next 24 to 36 hours under low to
moderate shear and strong outflow and then plateau.

Motion has continued south southwesterly this afternoon and evening and this
should generally continue for the next few days. This takes the cyclone towards
the Northwest Cape and a severe TC impact on the far west Pilbara coast remains
a possibility on the weekend.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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