TC Lua

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TC Lua

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:31 pm

We have TC Lua form before the top end low.
Only this morning did the low get marked as a tropical low and just after 3 reached Cat 1.

Lua looks to be the one to watch. At a minimum will cross near Hedland/Pardoo as a cat 2.
I have a gut feeling it will be more though although I hope it's not for the sake of those up that way. It was messy last time.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

All models agree on more or less the same track.
Don't forget to keep checking 28Cyclones for video updates and of course BoM for official data.

Threat map:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

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Re: TC Lua

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:47 pm

28storms! not cyclones. :)

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Re: TC Lua

Postby lykeeze » Tue Mar 13, 2012 4:23 pm


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TC Lua

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Mar 13, 2012 5:30 pm

Well they have two webs. They go by the name 28cyclones for their cyclone coverage.

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Re: TC Lua

Postby peterperthh » Tue Mar 13, 2012 6:46 pm

Latest GFS forecast for Miss Lua on Saturday morning

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TC Lua

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Mar 13, 2012 6:51 pm

Latest briefing on this event via 28cyclones or 28storms as many know them as.
http://28storms.com/cyclone/

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Re: TC Lua

Postby peterperthh » Tue Mar 13, 2012 6:55 pm

Latest ECMWF model for Saturday morning. Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa

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Re: TC Lua

Postby lykeeze » Tue Mar 13, 2012 8:58 pm

yeah im thinking it'll be bigger then cat 2 once it hits land aswell

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Re: TC Lua

Postby jcantelo » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:09 pm

BOM have it (TC Lua) at a Cat 3 8pm Thursday. Could be interesting. My mate is all prepared for a direct hit on Port Hedland. Good to be prepared early, miss the rush that is bound to happen once they issue cyclone warnings for the coast.

Oz cyclone chasers and 28Cyclones have this still at Cat 2/3 for a crossing, but if BOM are thinking a cat 3 by thursday morning and maybe a saturday morning pilbara coast crossing, could potentially have enough time to get stronger. :-ss Conditions are in favour for that to happen. Thoughts?
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TC Lua

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:15 pm

It's more or less about the effects of of it hanging around over the same area and the water cooling. Something BoM I'm sure are aware of. Maybe they'd be thinking it could be a 4or5 but because it's going to cool the water maybe a 3?

Hindsight is going to be perfect to work it out

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Re: TC Lua

Postby jcantelo » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:22 pm

Ah yes Hindsight. Everything is perfect.

Sorry for my ignorance Fu, but does a cyclone have that much influence on SST's while it is overhead? Enough to stop it from increasing in intensity?
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TC Lua

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:35 pm

I believe so, if it's over one area long enough.

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Re: TC Lua

Postby peterperthh » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:39 pm

The technical bulletins seem to mention SST cooling due to 'upwelling' a fair bit. There was another cyclone this season where it was noted that a stationary system would begin to reduce SST's.

Tonights technical bulletin from the BOM:

BOM predicting the central pressure to get down to 958hPa and wind speed up to 150km/h in 72hours

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1313 UTC 13/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.5S
Longitude: 114.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0000: 17.7S 114.2E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 14/1200: 17.1S 114.2E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 982
+36: 15/0000: 17.2S 114.5E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 15/1200: 17.9S 115.6E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 973
+60: 16/0000: 18.6S 117.1E: 190 [355]: 075 [140]: 962
+72: 16/1200: 19.9S 119.0E: 240 [445]: 080 [150]: 958
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Lua lies well north of the west Pilbara coast.

Dvorak DT is hovering around 3.0 with a CI of 3.0m supported by MET. ASCAT
imagery from earlier in the day showed marginal gales in the SE quadrant and
hence max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].

Movement is very slight with the steering balanced between an upper ridge to the
southwest and strengthening monsoonal northwesterlies to the north. A slow
motion to the north is forecast through 24 hours then a faster southeasterly
track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the
ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across
model guidance for this scenario.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and
warm SSTs, although SSTs may cool owing to upwelling with the slow motion. NWP
indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less
likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the
centre by Thursday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC

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Re: TC Lua

Postby alan_bond » Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:41 am

Sure,the chances of up welling may inhibit it intensifying further than a Cat 3 system but also the possibility that a dying Tl to its East will also hamper further development.
who knows? The awe of these things is truely inspired by their total unpredictability.

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Re: TC Lua

Postby mackerelmauler » Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:30 am

Looks like we have Lua the Loopy looking at the latest track prediction from BOM.

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Re: TC Lua

Postby lykeeze » Wed Mar 14, 2012 9:42 am

Ah nice one never thought about stationary system cooling the SST.. Hope its a lil easier to track then tc iggy-ziggy.. Im flying out Thursday morning so Im pretty certain ill cop alotta rain this stint Oool yer

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Re: TC Lua

Postby lykeeze » Wed Mar 14, 2012 9:57 am

Does seem to be moving west tho..

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TC Lua

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Mar 14, 2012 10:02 am

Expected to take a more southerly track in a day or so.

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Re: TC Lua

Postby @weather_wa » Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:10 pm

NT cyclone warning cancelled, but Lua still looms:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/nt-c ... ooms/21044

Wednesday March 14, 2012

The Weather Bureau has cancelled its cyclone warning for parts of the western Top End in the Northern Territory and Western Australia, but cyclone Lua continues to be active off the Pilbara coast.

The tropical low in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf is still expected to affect communities from Kalumburu to Dundee Beach, including Wyndham.

The system has brought wild weather to Darwin and heavy rain has forced the closure of dozens of roads in the city and Rural Area.

Forecaster Graham King says monsoonal conditions will continue as the low moves closer to the coast.

"There's the possibility of some very heavy rainfall extending through the Western Top End into the Victoria River region and maybe even further down into the Roper Mcarthur in coming days," he said.

"I think anywhere north of that monsoon trough has got the chance of some heavy falls."

Communities in WA's Pilbara and Kimberley are on alert with a separate system, Cyclone Lua, expected to twist east and intensify as it heads towards the coast.

The category one cyclone was about 610 kilometres north-west of Karratha at last report.

Lua has prompted a cyclone watch to be issued for communities between Mardie and Cape Leveque, which covers more than 1,000 kilometres of the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.

Forecaster Noel Pusey says the cyclone is on the move.

"We are expecting it to make an almost 180 degree turn in track to start coming back to the south-east over the next 12 to 24 hours," he said.

"It'll then continue towards the east Pilbara coast so there will be an impact on about Saturday we think at this stage."

He warns Lua will have time to intensify before crossing the coast.

"It'll be a severe tropical cyclone and thus it'll have a pretty reasonable sort of impact on the coast."

Emergency services are working behind the scenes to ensure remote communities and mine sites are prepared.

SES Kimberley District Manager Matt Reimer says crews across the north are on-call.

"There's constant liaison happening both with the weather bureaus in Darwin and in Perth, and we're talking to many stakeholders ensuring people are fully aware of the situation and preparing as best they can," he said.

He says northern residents should prepare their properties, assemble emergency kits and ideally stay close to home.

"I'd obviously be asking people to reconsider any camping plans they have, or other plans they have to go out bush or off the beaten track," he said.

"There's going to be a lot of rain which will make tracks and roads impassable so I'd definitely be rethinking those plans for at least the next week or so."

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Re: TC Lua

Postby peterperthh » Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:29 pm

Latest GFS has the cyclone going closer to Karratha. Its deciding whether it wants to disrupt BHP in Port Headland, or Rio Tinto and Woodside in Dampier/Karratha.

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