Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Pete » Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:20 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0101 UTC 29/12/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 110.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/1200: 19.0S 110.1E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 986
+24: 30/0000: 20.5S 109.9E: 080 [145]: 055 [100]: 981
+36: 30/1200: 22.1S 109.5E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 988
+48: 31/0000: 23.7S 108.8E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 991
+60: 31/1200: 26.0S 108.2E: 140 [255]: 040 [075]: 990
+72: 01/0000: 27.7S 108.1E: 155 [290]: 035 [065]: 993
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell has intensified overnight, with improved convective
organisation. Current intensity is based on a CB wrap of 0.7-0.8 giving DT 3.0
consistent with MET.

The system has been located by microwave imagery and has shown a consistent SSW
motion over the past 12 hours. All model guidance is consistent with a
southwards motion over the next 24-36 hours.

The system is expected to continue to intensify in the short term under
favourable conditions [high ocean heat content and shear less than 15 knots]. As
Mitchell heads south of 20S during Sunday, the system should weaken as it moves
over cooler waters.

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Pete » Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:23 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:01 am WST on Saturday 29 December 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (Category 1) was located at 8 am WST near 17.3S
110.7E, that is 630 km northwest of Exmouth and 750 km west northwest of
Karratha and moving south southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 pm WST.


Image

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Blue Skies » Sat Dec 29, 2012 1:51 pm

I don't think its going to amount to much, unfortunately. I think the only real question is where is it going to dump it's rain?
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August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby @weather_wa » Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:10 pm

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is first of the season:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/trop ... ason/23106

Willemien Phelan, Saturday December 29, 2012

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Mitchell formed over the Indian Ocean more than 630 km west off the WA Pilbara coast. It is this season's first Tropical Cyclone entering Australian waters.

By 8am WST on Saturday morning Mitchell had developed into a Category 1 system and was moving in a south-southwesterly direction at 19 kilometres per hour. As TC Mitchell is expected to move southwards it is expected to intensify into a category 2 system on Saturday evening and Sunday morning while remaining well offshore. By Sunday 8pm WST the system will have moved over cooler waters and will ease into a Category 1 system. As it weakens it will drift further southwest and away from the coast.

At this stage the system is not expected to produce damaging winds in coastal communities, however people in the north west of Western Australia should monitor forecasts and warnings closely.

The indirect effects from this system for the Pilbara communities are an increase in rainfall and wave heights.

The heaviest tropical downpours from Mitchell are expected to stay offshore, however residents in the Pilbara region, and especially the coast, can expect an increase in rainfall from this system on Saturday and Sunday. This brings the risk of flash flooding. Overall 30 to 50 mm of rainfall is expected to accumulate with this system over the next three days.

Combined wave and swell heights are expected to increase to around 2.5 metres on Sunday.

- Weatherzone

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Pete » Sat Dec 29, 2012 4:38 pm

Image

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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Dec 29, 2012 5:22 pm

Seems to be very set in its track Sth
Neither JTWC or BoM expecting a turn in any other direction.

The US Navy JointTyphoonWarningCentre (JTWC) threat map for the same system:
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... sh0613.gif

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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Dec 29, 2012 5:50 pm


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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:20 am

What's going on?
The first TC of the season and barely a peep?
Latest threat map:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Limited access to threat maps and models from where I am.

Can anyone post some model runs and opinions on where the rain from this will end up?

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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:22 am

Seems to be following warm water as best it can but coincidentally I'd imagine.

What are the uppers like in steering this weak system?

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby @weather_wa » Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:00 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Issued at 2:59 am WST Sunday 30 December 2012

Image

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby @weather_wa » Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:02 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:55 am WST on Sunday 30 December 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (Category 1) was located at 2 am WST near 19.8S
110.2E, that is 470 km west northwest of Exmouth and 670 km north northwest of
Carnarvon and moving south at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is weakening and is not expected to affect the WA
mainland in the next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am WST.

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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:28 am

The little cyclone that could.
Very poor moisture feeds for this system.
I'd not be surprised to see this wither before our eyes before its even expected to in an official capacity.
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.htm ... &stop=#nav

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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:36 am


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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby mackerelmauler » Sun Dec 30, 2012 8:41 am

It looks like TC Mitchell is barely a cyclone and is likely to cease being a cyclone in a day or so.

What I hope is that some moisture from Mitchell will feed into the trough along the west coast and lead to some decent thunderstorms.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby mackerelmauler » Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:26 am

My prediction came true earlier than I thought it would. We know have a tropical low.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:40 am WST on Sunday 30 December 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was located at 8 am WST near 21.1S 110.2E, that is
415 km west northwest of Exmouth and moving south at 20 kilometres per hour.

Ex Tropical Cyclone Mitchell has weakened below tropical cyclone intensity and
is not expected to affect the WA mainland.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Postby @weather_wa » Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:30 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Issued at 9:17 am WST Sunday 30 December 2012.

Image

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

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