2011-12 Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook

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2011-12 Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook

Postby Cyclone Alby » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:15 pm

Summary: Above average tropical cyclone activity likely for the Australian region this season

The outlook favours the following scenarios for the coming season:
The whole Australian Region has an 80% chance of having more than the long-term average number of cyclones. The long-term average is twelve.
The Western Region has a 65% chance of observing above average number of tropical cyclones, where the long-term average is seven.
The North-western Sub-region has a 60% chance of above average number of tropical cyclones. The long-term average is five.
The Northern Region has a 60% chance of above average number of tropical cyclones, where the long-term average is two or three cyclones.
The Eastern Region has a 65% chance of observing above average number of tropical cyclones, where the long-term average is three or four.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/tc.shtml

So another active cyclone system coming up :o

could we see one like bianca last season come down here...sst's will a factor so keeping a eye on that could be interesting later on
Margaret River

2011 YTD 1056.2 mm
2012 YTD 716.6 mm
2013 YTD 1174.6 mm :)
2014 YTD 840.2mm
2015 YTD 798.8mm

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Re: 2011-12 Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook

Postby @weather_wa » Thu Oct 20, 2011 5:24 pm

Study points to cyclone 'clusters':

Scientists say there is new evidence that cyclones occur in clusters, rather than randomly.

Researchers from Queensland and the UK studied weather records and found cyclone activity occurs in short, intense periods, followed by relatively long, quiet periods.

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, from the University of Queensland, says it is good news for ecosystems sensitive to cyclones such as the Great Barrier Reef.

"If you get periods in which you have a lot of cyclones and then ... a break between them, the impact can be a lot less than if they were to be spaced out," he said.

Fellow researcher Justine Bell says this new information should help insurance companies.

"It's certainly helpful having this information about one particular sort of event which has historically been quite a large source of claims for the insurance industry," she said.

"I think the biggest thing that will come from this is certainty for them; by having this data available, it allows them to make an informed decision about risk pricing.

"They're able to better plan and make decisions in pricing policy premiums to account for these events in the future."

Ms Bell says the findings could help persuade insurers to keep covering riskier markets.

The general manager of the Insurance Council of Australia, Karl Sullivan, says this information will not greatly affect the industry.

"Insurers are in the business of pricing risk. Determining that risk comes from a range of sources and new research like this can assist with that, but the strongest factor that insurers use to price is historical claims," he said.

"Any research that's received adds to the body of knowledge and then adds to the insurer's ability to actually price it [the claim] correctly.

"But by itself it doesn't mean a lot; it really has to be taken into context of that historical claims database that we work with."

The study was conducted by Professor Peter Mumby, from the University of Queensland's Global Change Institute, and Professor David Stephenson, from the University of Exeter in the UK.

- ABC

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