Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

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Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:17 pm

Looks like TC Errol will get going soon.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

Threat map...
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

FESA
https://internet.fesa.wa.gov.au/alerts/ ... lerts.aspx

BLUE ALERT for Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, Kimberley
Saturday 2 April 2011 – 4:10 PM

COMMUNITY ALERT LEVEL:
A BLUE ALERT has been issued for people in or near communities between Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, including Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Cockatoo and Koolan islands, Cape Leveque, and Beagle Bay.



There is no threat to lives or homes. Although there is no immediate danger you need to start preparing for dangerous weather and keep up to date.



WHAT TO DO:

* Prepare your home inside and out.
* Secure or remove loose material from around your home.
* Ensure your emergency kit is complete.
* Check your family knows what to do.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ALERT LEVEL:

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wyndham to Beagle Bay.



A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, including Broome and Derby.

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Re: TC Errol

Postby Benni.G. » Sat Apr 02, 2011 9:21 pm

Looks to be starting to fire up now, that's after we nurtured it for you cyclone hogs :| :P
Oopps, hasn't been named yet, shouldn't be long now though
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Re: TC Errol

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Apr 02, 2011 9:48 pm

No it hasn't, but we all know what it will be named and JTWC is onto this system like flys on poo.

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Re: TC Errol

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Apr 02, 2011 9:50 pm

You think this TC will grapple with the predicted cold front on Thursday and pull it inland over the Pilbara coast?

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Re: TC Errol

Postby Benni.G. » Sun Apr 03, 2011 5:58 pm

I think that when this low does become a TC, that it will be off shore and keep heading west, can't see it crossing coast again, that just my opinion.
That's even if it gets off the coast, could well just do a Carlos and skirt the coast and have enough punch as a wet sock.
This whole season has been the same, might have to look into it and see what causing it or if it just all Miss La Nina's fault?
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Re: TC Errol

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Apr 03, 2011 7:31 pm

As Neil Bennett said on ABC Perth the other day the whole situation is far more complex than just one factor. Even they don't know at the BoM.

I guess overall we have had a wet sock cyclone season, yet in theory, on the face of it, some of the most favourable conditions seen in a very long while.

That passing front doesn't look strong enough to affect this system.

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Re: TC Errol

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Apr 03, 2011 7:40 pm


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Re: TC Errol

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Apr 03, 2011 7:52 pm

From 28 Storms

http://28storms.com/cyclone/?p=78

28 Storms wrote:The Tropical Low along the Kimberley coast has met the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s criteria to begin the issuance of advisories. For now, the cyclone is deemed “20W”, but it will attain the name “Errol” once and if it reaches Category 1 status on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology cyclone scale. The surface circulation drifted a bit more southerly than anticipated and is currently over land. A more westerly motion is forecast over the next few days, bringing the center over open waters. Upper level winds remain moderately favorable along the monsoon trough for further development. 20W is likely to intensify into a Category 1 or 2 as it continues to move away from Kimberley.

In fact, BOM is forecasting the cyclone to reach Category 3 intensity by the time it’s northwest of Broome on Monday night. JTWC’s intensity forecast is also in agreement. It is difficult to say whether 20W attain Category 3 status or how long it will remain at that intensity. In 3-4 days, a longwave trough will weaken the subtropical ridge draped over Western Australia. The trough may eventually force the storm south toward the Pilbara coast. Fortunately, the aforementioned trough will also increase upper level winds, making them less favorable. Furthermore, the cyclone’s low level circulation may begin to entrain dry air from land. If 20W were to recurve into Western Australia, it appears fairly unlikely that it would do so as a severe cyclone. It should also be noted that the ECMWF dissipates the storm altogether over the Indian Ocean.
April 3, 2011 at 1:52 am by

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Re: TC Errol

Postby 28storms » Mon Apr 04, 2011 5:01 am

Thank your for posting our updates. Here is the latest....

http://28storms.com/cyclone/

Posted: April 4, 2011 at 3:28 AM Darwin, AUS Time

The Tropical Low, Tropical Cyclone 20W, continues to struggle as the surface circulation remains inland over Kimberley. The model consensus continues to suggest that the low will gradually move into open waters over the next few days. A subtropical ridge over Western Australia should prevent the low from moving inland in the short term. The dominant steering motion should be toward the west-southwest, placing the storm just north of Pilbara. Once over open waters, 20W should strengthen into a Category 1 or 2 cyclone due to favorable waters temperatures and an upper level ridge aloft.

The medium range forecast continues to be more problematic. The Bureau of Meteorology has since backed off on their anticipation of 20W reaching Severe Category Three intensity, but gradual development into a Cat 2 is still expected. It is unlikely that 20W will ever become a very powerful cyclone for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, an approaching trough will deepen as it nears the west coast. Ahead of the trough, northerly and westerly shear is bound to increase. Second, continental dry air intrusion may remain an issue as the circulation center remains fairly close to the coast. Finally, the storm wouldn’t have an extended amount of time over open waters to strengthen even if upper winds were forecast to be favorable. None of the primary dynamical model guidance shows much in the way of intensification. Both the ECMWF and GFS show dissipation over the next 72 hours. If the storm were to weaken significantly, then the odds of it being shunted southward by the trough would also diminish. For now, the best bet is a Category One landfall near Dampier or Port Hedland within 72-96 hours.

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Re: TC Errol

Postby Benni.G. » Mon Apr 04, 2011 11:26 am

Fu Manchu wrote:As Neil Bennett said on ABC Perth the other day the whole situation is far more complex than just one factor. Even they don't know at the BoM.

I guess overall we have had a wet sock cyclone season, yet in theory, on the face of it, some of the most favourable conditions seen in a very long while.

That passing front doesn't look strong enough to affect this system.

It was a complex system when it was NE / N of Darwin for sure, the main llcc died off then a new one formed and starting moving south over eastern Melville Island, it was quite clear on radar and it wasn't till the next forecast track update had showed it had repositioned from north of the Tiwi Islands to just north of Darwin :o .
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Re: TC Errol

Postby BigStorm » Mon Apr 04, 2011 12:37 pm

The low near Broome is now not expected to develop into a Cyclone. Seems as though Errol just doesn't want to be a cyclone as it's the 2nd one that was forecast to turn into Errol, only to fizz out.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

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Re: TC Errol

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Apr 04, 2011 5:42 pm

I will adjust the thread title accordingly :lol:

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Re: Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Apr 04, 2011 5:56 pm

The latest video on the not so developing Tropical Low at this point.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0enIYaHLBY

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Re: Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

Postby silvercloud » Mon Apr 04, 2011 7:28 pm

LMAO nice title change :lol:

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Re: Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

Postby Benni.G. » Wed Apr 06, 2011 11:17 am

Third time lucky! Error maybe?
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Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:28 pm

Oh Ben, let's hope so mate. Especially if it becomes associated with a solid delivery of rain for the lower west and SW.

All that aside I think everyone is a bit toey for some weather action.

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Re: Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

Postby BigStorm » Fri Apr 15, 2011 11:22 am

We now have TC Errol. :lol:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDWP0006.shtml

It doesn't look like it will have much affect on the WA coast but none the less a system has finally formed.

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Re: Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

Postby Pete » Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:46 pm

Man, that formed quick. Didn't even know there was a potential low to form! Better change the thread title back Fu :wink: :lol:

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Tropical Low that's Not TC Errol (for the second time!)

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Apr 19, 2011 6:58 am


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