TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Monsoonal-Maiden » Wed Dec 24, 2008 6:24 am

Image 24th - 6.30am WDT


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 6:45 am WDT on Wednesday, 24 December 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH


A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Wallal to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie.

The Cyclone WARNING from Bidyadanga to Wallal has been cancelled.

At 6:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Billy was estimated to be
235 kilometres west of Broome and
315 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west at 10 kilometres per hour.

TC Billy is currently located west of Broome and is moving away from the
Kimberley coast. In the next 24 hours the cyclone is expected to move in a
generally westerly direction.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Wallal and Whim
Creek during Wednesday if Billy takes a more southwest track.

Rainfall is expected to ease over the southwest Kimberley during Wednesday as
the cyclone moves away from the coast.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Billy at 6:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 120.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 983 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
surrounding communities should take precautions.

People in communities between Port Hedland and Mardie should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Wednesday 24 December.


Image


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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Tim S » Wed Dec 24, 2008 8:35 am

Quite a clear eye on Billy on the sat pics this morning, this is the high res vis from an hour or so ago:
Image

Billy is heading pretty much straight for the Rowley Shoals AWS so this link will be a good one to watch over the coming 24 hrs or so: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801 ... 4207.shtml
already down to 996hpa there.
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Broome.bells » Wed Dec 24, 2008 9:32 am

well we got a fair drop of rain up here, but sorta glad its heading west...as long as billy doesnt do a rosita on us! Unfortunately the shrubs planted along the front of the house are completely bare, but most of the rest of the garden stood up to the winds. Went for a drive around town with bubbs and theres not much damage, a few rather large limbs have fallen off trees and there are palm fronds everywhere! Still alot of lateral water around, so mozzies are gonna be around for awhile.
MM i hope you get lots of lovely rain but no cyclone tomorrow.
Merry Xmas everyone.

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Dec 24, 2008 9:38 pm

That is a cyclone that has a very well formed shape. That high res photo is half arsed 3d kind of :)

It is so impressive on the sat loop too.

How is the shadow on the lower southern side. It shows a very deep eye and it does look to be wide as well.

I can only invisage what Hurricane katerina looked like from the P-3 Orion footage as to what this looks like in the eye yet it is only a cat 1-2 cyclone.

Maybe we are to here more from Billy later on?

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Fu Manchu » Thu Dec 25, 2008 5:34 pm

A cat 4 too ! with a stereo typical shape and form :)

in the process of doing a 360?

It is heading more NW in the last few loops and reports seem to back that up.

Low wind shear at the moment too.

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Monsoonal-Maiden » Fri Dec 26, 2008 6:34 am

The daughter (and her new ipod) spent a lot of time online yesterday, so I snuck a quick turn on her laptop and saved the last update for Billy.

We had a fantastic Christmas day... cold, wet, overcast & just a little wind 8) in total...10.5mm over the past day and a half. It's better than nothing!


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 59
Issued at 10:00 am WDT on Thursday, 25 December 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH


The Cyclone WARNING from Port Hedland to Mardie has been cancelled.

At 9:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy was estimated to be
340 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and
365 kilometres north of Karratha and
Moving west at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system moving on a general westerly
Track well off the Pilbara coast. It is likely to continue on a westerly to
Northwesterly track and GALES are no longer expected on the Pilbara coast.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 117.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ Within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... Towards the west at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 953 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR:

People in or near communities between Pardoo and Port Hedland are advised to
Proceed with caution.

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
The coast. Please refer to Information Bulletin or Forecast Track Map for
Further details.




TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 0123 UTC 25/12/2008

Name: Billy
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 117.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15 NM [28 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 953 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 NM [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 NM [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 NM [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 NM [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 NM [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 NM [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 NM [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 NM [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 NM [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 NM [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 NM [240 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : NM [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1200: 17.4S 116.1E: 045 [085]: 080 [150]: 962
+24: 26/0000: 16.7S 114.8E: 075 [140]: 070 [130]: 971
+36: 26/1200: 16.3S 113.8E: 110 [200]: 060 [110]: 978
+48: 27/0000: 16.0S 112.6E: 140 [260]: 055 [100]: 982
+60: 27/1200: 16.3S 111.7E: 190 [345]: 050 [095]: 985
+72: 28/0000: 16.7S 110.6E: 235 [435]: 045 [085]: 988
REMARKS:
Billy was located by radar and satellite imagery well to the north of Karratha
Moving steadily
To the west. The period intensification ceased overnight with the eye becoming
Partially obscured by IR imagery, although microwave shows a clear eye still
Evident. Dvorak DT/FT=5.0 based on eye pattern White surround 6.0 less 1.0 eye
Adjustment W/CMG. CI held at 5.5.
Estimates increasing by 2.0T in 24 hours.

Billy is likely to continue a westerly then northwesterly track well off the
Pilbara coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. A change to
A more southerly track is not expected and the threat of a coastal impact has
Passed.

A slow to moderate weakening is expected particularly when the system moves over
Lower sea surface temperatures west of 115E on 26 December. Although it is
Possible that the system may remain at cyclone intensity for some days over open
Waters.

Image

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Monsoonal-Maiden » Fri Dec 26, 2008 6:43 am

Billy is starting to weaken now and looks no where near as good on the sat picture as he did yesterday.

Still lots of cloud outside, humidity has dropped to 48%, hope we get some more rain today :)


TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:35 am WDT on Friday 26 December 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH


Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy (Category 3) was located at 3 am WDT near 16.6S
115.3E,
that is 490 km north northwest of Karratha and 610 km north northeast of
Exmouth and moving west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system moving on a general west to
northwesterly track well off the Pilbara coast. It is likely to continue on
this track away from the coast and hence GALES are not expected along the
Pilbara coast.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 10 am WDT.

Image

Image

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1853 UTC 25/12/2008

Name: Billy
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 115.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [300 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa

REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily west northwest. The cloud pattern has shown
some weakening in the last six hours. Dvorak DT/FT=4.5, CI is at 5.0.

Billy is likely to continue on its west northwest track for another 30 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, before a weakeness in the
ridge may encourage a southwesterly track. Shear is not forecast to increase
dramatically but even a modest increase may impact on the system, particularly
as it begins to move over slightly cooler waters west of 115E. However it is
likely that the system will retain TC intensity through the weekend and into
Monday.


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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Fu Manchu » Fri Dec 26, 2008 7:19 am

from ABC news...

The State Emergency Service says the Dampier Peninsula was lucky not to suffer more serious damage from storms brought by Cyclone Billy.

The cyclone remained a category one storm as it passed along the coastline yesterday - it has since intensified offshore.

There have been few reports of damage beyond ripped out trees and street signs.

The only serious damage seems to have been at Broome port where several boats were torn from their moorings.

Broome resident Clare Morton witnessed the spectacle.

"The wind had died off a little bit in town, but it seemed to be stronger down at the port," she said.

"We looked out to sea and there was one boat that was obviously under water and there [was] another boat that was high and dry underneath the golf course."

ABC News

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Tim S » Fri Dec 26, 2008 7:38 am

So you did get some rain from Billy for Xmas in the end MM, just not as much as he could have given you. :) Looks like the whole of the Pilbara could be in for some more light to moderate falls over the next few days, courtesy of moisture coming off Billy and a nice big area of low pressure, enjoy! :)

I'm surprised Billy is still as strong as he is, I remember reading the tech summary yesterday saying that because of his small size and the fact he's moving over cooling water and into an increased sheer environment he should weaken rapidly. There saying now that they expect Billy to remain a TC until around Monday, not bad given the SST where he is now are close or even below the magic 26.5C.
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby Monsoonal-Maiden » Fri Dec 26, 2008 3:47 pm

We opened up the back door (off the dining room) and watched the rain while eating Christmas Dinner....it couldn't get much better than that :)

Billy will start to move WSW soon then SW till he dies around Monday or Tuesday. He has done well for an early cyclone...makes you wonder what's to come!

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Re: TC Billy, 19th December 2008 to...

Postby SimonB » Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:38 pm

I know this is a bit late and it may already have been posted, but check this sat pic of TC Billy out:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2008360-1225/Billy.A2008360.0610, click on the 250m resolution link and prepare to be amazed...

If you like that, try this: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?search=cyclone
-------------------
My Photo Gallery Site: http://simonb.zenfolio.com/ - comments welcome!

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