Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

F4 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:11 pm
Location: Midland

Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby stokesy » Thu Dec 30, 2010 9:14 am

A cyclone advise has already been issued for the LOW over the Top End:

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 8:52 am WST on Thursday 30 December 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Wallal to Exmouth.

At 8:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
275 kilometres east northeast of Kununurra and
135 kilometres west southwest of Katherine and
moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause
gales on Thursday or Friday. Gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on
Saturday as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to
the Pilbara coast. By Sunday evening the system is likely to be north of
Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west.

Heavy rainfall is expected in the north Kimberley over the next two days as the
system moves westwards. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the
Kimberley or Pilbara due to its steady movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.


Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
Centre located near...... 15.1 degrees South 131.2 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 30 December.


Link to the map: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

F4 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:11 pm
Location: Midland

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby stokesy » Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:03 pm

I realise that others are posting in the Northern forum but to have all the info in one topic, I'll continue to post here:

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 2:54 pm WST on Thursday 30 December 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.

At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
210 kilometres east northeast of Kununurra and
200 kilometres west southwest of Katherine and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause
gales on Thursday or Friday. Gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on
Saturday as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to
the Pilbara coast. By Sunday evening the system is likely to be north of
Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west.

Heavy rainfall of 100mm to 150mm is expected in the North and West Kimberley
over the next two days as the system moves westwards. Significant stream rises
with local flooding is possible in the North and West Kimberley, refer to the
latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to
cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.


Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 130.5 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 30 December.


Also here's the flood watch issued earlier:

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:Flood Watch
for the North and West Kimberley
Issued at 10:50 AM on Thursday the 30th of December 2010
Western Australia Flood Warning Centre

A low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west Kimberley
coast late Friday or early Saturday. Heavy rainfall of 100mm to 150mm is
expected in the north and west Kimberley over the next two days as the system
moves westwards.

Significant stream rises with local flooding is possible.

FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises people in the area to prepare to
relocate equipment and livestock early. Put fuel in your vehicle and watch water
levels. Some roads may be impassable, obey road closure signs and do not drive
into water of unknown depth and current. Floodwaters are dangerous and you
should not walk, swim or play in them. For SES assistance call 132 500. For more
safety tips visit www.fesa.wa.gov.au .

Current river levels are available from Department of Water at
www.water.wa.gov.au

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 213. Warnings, rainfall and river
information are available at www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/wa.


Weather Forecast:
The rainfall forecast for the Kimberley is for isolated showers and
thunderstorms tending scattered in the north with some rain areas and possible
heavy falls in the far northeast.

Next Issue:
The next watch message will be issued by 10am Friday 31 December.

WAWG Administrator
User avatar
Posts: 12284
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:36 pm
Location: Lower West

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby Fu Manchu » Thu Dec 30, 2010 5:46 pm

FESA wrote:Cyclone alert for the Pilbara and south west Kimberley
Thursday 30 December 2010 – 2:10 PM

If you live in the Pilbara and south west Kimberley between Wallal and Exmouth you need to prepare your home and family for a possible cyclone, with the development of a tropical low east northeast of Kununurra.



This includes people in Wallal, Pardoo, Yarrie, De Grey, Port Hedland, Wickham, Roebourne, Whim Creek, Dampier, Karratha, Barrow Island, Mardie, Fortescue Roadhouse, Onslow, Exmouth, Pannawonica, Point Samson, Veranus Island and surrounding areas.



As at 8.52am the Bureau of Meteorology advises the tropical low is located 275 kilometres east northeast of Kununurra and 135 kilometres west southwest of Katherine. It is moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.



Remember that preparing your home and family for a cyclone is your responsibility.



WHAT TO DO:

FESA's State Emergency Service (SES) advises you to:

* Review your family cyclone plan and make sure everyone knows what to do.
* Prepare your home inside and out.
* Organise an emergency kit with a portable battery operated radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit.
* Know the community cyclone alert system and the steps that must be taken for each.
* People camping on islands or along the coast from Wallal to Exmouth need to keep up to date and be prepared to relocate early.

Community alerts will be issued by FESA if the cyclone comes closer.



There are four stages of alerts - Blue, Yellow, Red and All Clear.

* BLUE ALERT means prepare for dangerous weather.
* YELLOW ALERT means take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
* RED ALERT means go to shelter immediately.
* ALL CLEAR means that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

IMPORTANT NUMBERS:

* For SES assistance call 132 500.
* In a life threatening situation call 000.
* For weather information visit http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210.

KEEP UP TO DATE:

Call 1300 657 209, visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au or listen to new bulletins.

The Phantom
User avatar
Posts: 5413
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:03 pm
Location: Canning Vale

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby @weather_wa » Thu Dec 30, 2010 5:55 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Wallal
Issued at 3:16 pm WST on Thursday 30 December 2010

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was located within 45 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal zero degrees South (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and thirty decimal five degrees East (130.5E)
about 110 nautical miles east northeast of Kununurra over land
and 110 nautical miles west southwest of Katherine
Recent movement : west at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 10 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hectopascals

Forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal five degrees South (15.5S)
longitude one hundred and twenty eight decimal zero degrees East (128.0E)
about 50 nautical miles west northwest of Kununurra over land
with maximum winds of 15 knots
at 2:00 am WST Friday

Forecast to be within 110 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal four degrees South (16.4S)
longitude one hundred and twenty five decimal two degrees East (125.2E)
about 205 nautical miles west of Kununurra over land
with maximum winds of 15 knots
at 2:00 pm WST Friday

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Wallal
Northeast to northwest winds increasing to 20/30 knots late Friday morning
between Kuri Bay and Broome. Winds between Broome and Wallal increasing to east
to northeast 20/30 knots during Friday evening. Squalls to 45 knots in
thunderstorms. Seas rising to 2.5 metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 2.0 metres.


The next warning will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 30 December.


Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Coral Bay to Cape Leeuwin.
Issued at 3:20 pm WST on Thursday 30 December 2010

Synoptic situation
A surface trough lies over inland parts and a ridge of high pressure is developing to the south of the state.

Strong Wind Warning
Coral Bay to Shark Bay
Expect S/SW winds 20/30 knots during Thursday afternoon and evening, easing below 25 knots by midnight Thursday. Seas to 2.0m. Swell to 1.5m

Strong Wind Warning
Shark Bay to Mandurah
Expect S/SW winds 20/30 knots Thursday afternoon and evening, shifting S/SE 20/30 knots early Friday morning and returning S/SW 20/30 knots Friday afternoon. Winds becoming SE 20/25 knots towards midnight Friday. Seas to 2.0m. Swell to 2.5m in the south.

Strong Wind Warning
Mandurah to Cape Leeuwin
Expect S/SW winds to reach 20/30 knots Thursday afternoon north of Cape Naturaliste, easing below 25 knots by midnight Thursday. Winds throughout becoming S/SE and increasing to 20/30 knots Friday afternoon and evening, easing to below 25 towards midnight Friday. Seas to 2.0m. Swell to 3.0m.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm WST Thursday.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

F4 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:11 pm
Location: Midland

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby stokesy » Thu Dec 30, 2010 8:30 pm

Funny how they've used the word 'midget' in their technical forecast:

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0744 UTC 30/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 130.5E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 10 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1800: 15.5S 128.0E: 080 [150]: 015 [030]: 1000
+24: 31/0600: 16.4S 125.2E: 110 [205]: 015 [030]: 998
+36: 31/1800: 17.6S 122.2E: 135 [250]: 025 [045]: 998
+48: 01/0600: 19.0S 118.8E: 170 [315]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 01/1800: 19.8S 116.0E: 200 [370]: 045 [085]: 990
+72: 02/0600: 20.4S 113.4E: 235 [435]: 045 [085]: 990
REMARKS:
The system was located using surface observations and visible satellite imagery
and was located over land under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.

Dvorak not assigned as system over land.

Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday or
early Saturday into favourable SSTs and may develop into a tropical cyclone by
010600UTC after spending between 6 and 12 hours over open water. The system is
likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Model guidance
indicates that it is likely to develop as a midget system and so it may reach
cyclone intensity after a relatively short period over open water.

Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear it may experience favourable shear conditions.

The system is forecast to intensify to 45 knots [10 minute mean wind] although
further intensification to category 2 [50-60 knot mean winds] is possible,
particularly as the system is small.


Doesn't seem like it will be a strong cyclone. On an earlier run of GFS, it also showed only a weak system that heads past NW Cape, then just sits there. I wonder if that's the reason for the 40c+ days here in Perth?

F4 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:11 pm
Location: Midland

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby stokesy » Thu Dec 30, 2010 8:59 pm

9pm update:

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:59 pm WST on Thursday 30 December 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.

At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
30 kilometres northwest of Kununurra and
45 kilometres east southeast of Wyndham and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause
gales on Friday but gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Saturday for a
brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel
to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and
continuing to move towards the west.

Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Kuri Bay and Wallal including
Broome can expect a period of strong winds and heavy rain overnight from
Friday into Saturday morning.
Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley over
the next two days as the system moves westwards. Significant stream rises with
local flooding is possible in the North and West Kimberley, refer to the latest
Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to cause
flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 128.5 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 31 December.


Link to Track & Threat Map: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

She's really moving... 28km/h!

F4 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:11 pm
Location: Midland

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby stokesy » Fri Dec 31, 2010 7:09 am

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 3:00 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.

At 2:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
390 kilometres east northeast of Derby and
140 kilometres west of Wyndham and
moving west at 28 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.

While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest.

Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley
today with significant stream rises with local flooding possible, refer to the
latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to
cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 126.8 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west at 28 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Friday 31 December.


Still speeding through the Kimberley at 28km/h.

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Wallal
Issued at 3:08 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 2:00 am WST a Tropical Low was located over land within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal six degrees South (15.6S)
longitude one hundred and twenty six decimal eight degrees East (126.8E)
about 210 nautical miles east northeast of Derby over land
and 75 nautical miles west of Wyndham
Recent movement : west at 15 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hectopascals

Forecast to be within 75 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal five degrees South (16.5S)
longitude one hundred and twenty three decimal eight degrees East (123.8E)
about 50 nautical miles north of Derby over land
with maximum winds of 20 knots
at 2:00 pm WST Friday

Forecast to be within 100 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal six degrees South (17.6S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal seven degrees East (120.7E)
about 170 nautical miles west of Derby
with maximum winds of 30 knots
at 2:00 am WST Saturday

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Wallal
West to northwest winds increasing to 20/30 knots on Friday afternoon between
Kuri Bay and Broome and then 25/33 knots overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. Winds between Broome and Wallal increasing to east to northeast 20/30
knots during Friday evening then reaching 25/33 knots offshore for a period on
Saturday morning. Squalls to 45 knots in thunderstorms. Seas rising to 2.5
metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 2.0 metres.


Bureau of Meteorology wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 30/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 126.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [261 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 15 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0600: 16.5S 123.8E: 075 [140]: 020 [035]: 998
+24: 31/1800: 17.6S 120.7E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 01/0600: 18.7S 117.4E: 130 [240]: 050 [095]: 992
+48: 01/1800: 19.9S 114.4E: 155 [285]: 055 [100]: 987
+60: 02/0600: 20.8S 111.6E: 195 [360]: 050 [095]: 988
+72: 02/1800: 21.1S 109.7E: 230 [425]: 040 [075]: 992
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations and Wyndham radar
under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.

Dvorak intensity not assigned as system over land.

Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday into
favourable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the
system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than
12 hours over open water.

Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear, it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given
its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the
southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a
relatively short period.

The system is forecast to intensify, possibly to category 2 intensity [55 knots
10 minute mean wind] but should encounter cooler waters in the longer term
northwest of Exmouth which should constrain its development potential.


Still going to be of 'midget' size apparently but should become a cat 2 storm.

F4 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:11 pm
Location: Midland

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby stokesy » Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:12 pm

Forecast to get up to a cat 3 system now:

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 11:51 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal
to Exmouth

At 11:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
170 kilometres northeast of Derby and
325 kilometres northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.

While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.

Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the north and west Kimberley today. Local stream rises are possible but
flooding is no longer expected. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the
Pilbara due to its steady movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises advices of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.

Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 am WST:
Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 124.6 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.

The Phantom
User avatar
Posts: 5413
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:03 pm
Location: Canning Vale

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby @weather_wa » Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:35 pm

The Pilbara coast has been put on blue alert in preparation for a cyclone expected to form offshore within the next 24 hours.

A tropical low that formed in the Northern Territory earlier this week is currently moving quickly across the West Kimberley, dumping rain on Broome and the Dampier Peninsula.

It is expected to intensify as it moves over water and form a category one cyclone tomorrow morning.

The blue alert is current between Wallal and the Fortescue roadhouse, including the towns of Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham and Dampier.

Residents are being urged to clear up loose material and prepare an emergency kit in anticpation of heavy rains and fierce winds forecast for the morning.

Severe weather forecaster Noel Puzey says the cyclone is then expected to pull away from the coast quickly, reducing its impact.

"But it is moving rapidly and we expect that by Sunday it'll be somewhere well north of Exmouth."

The Fire and Emergency Services Authority is urging residents along the West Kimberley and Pilbara coast to prepare their emergency kits today.

FESA's Lee Vallance says it would be unwise to drink too much during tonight's New Year's Eve celebrations.

F4 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:11 pm
Location: Midland

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby stokesy » Fri Dec 31, 2010 3:18 pm

Would be unwise to get drunk for New Year's...I wonder how many people will heed that advice, lol!!

Anyhoo, the next update:

Bureau of Meteorology wrote:TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 2:47 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal
to Exmouth

At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
250 kilometres northeast of Broome and
115 kilometres north of Derby and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN tonight as the low passes by.
Winds and rain should ease across the west Kimberley during tomorrow as the low
moves away from the coast.

While gales are not expected tonight, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.

Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the north and west Kimberley overnight but should ease during Saturday. Flash
flooding and local stream rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause
flooding in the Pilbara due to its rapid movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises advices of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.

Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 123.8 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.


Looks like the BoM are confident that it'll make severe status now as a cat 3 storm according to the latest Threat Map: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

GFS shows it heading down the west coast although weaking quite quickly with most of the rain around Denham To Kalbarri. If this does happen, look out for the flood warning for the Murch and possibly Carnarvon again!

Storm force wind warning issued:
WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Onslow
Issued at 3:04 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was located over land within 45 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal three degrees South (16.3S)
longitude one hundred and twenty three decimal eight degrees East (123.8E)
about 135 nautical miles northeast of Broome over land
and 60 nautical miles north of Derby
Recent movement : west southwest at 15 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 997 hectopascals

Forecast to be over water within 75 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal four degrees South (17.4S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal six degrees East (120.6E)
about 100 nautical miles west northwest of Broome
with maximum winds of 30 knots
at 2:00 am WST Saturday

Forecast to be within 105 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven degrees South (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal three degrees East (117.3E)
about 285 nautical miles west of Broome
with maximum winds of 50 knots
at 2:00 pm WST Saturday

STORM WARNING
Within 30 nautical miles from 2:00 pm WST Saturday, winds to 50 knots with
combined seas and swell to 5m.

GALE WARNING
Within 80 nautical miles in in the southern semicircle
and within 40 nautical miles in the northern semicircle
Clockwise winds increasing to 20/30 knots from 8:00 pm WST Friday and reaching
50 knots near the centre by 2:00 pm WST Saturday . Combined seas and swell to
4m.

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere from Kuri Bay to Onslow
West to northwest winds 20/30 knots between Kuri Bay and Broome and increasing
to 25/33 knots overnight. Winds between Broome and Wallal increasing to east to
northeast 20/30 knots during Friday evening then reaching 25/33 knots offshore
for a period on Saturday morning. Winds between Wallal and Onslow increasing to
southeast to northeast 25/33 knots during Saturday. Squalls to 45 knots in
thunderstorms. Seas rising to 2.5 metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 2.0 metres.

F4 Weather Freak
User avatar
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:11 pm
Location: Midland

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby stokesy » Fri Dec 31, 2010 6:40 pm

BoM wrote:TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 5:42 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to
Exmouth

At 5:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
160 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
95 kilometres northwest of Derby and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN tonight as the low passes by.
Winds and rain should ease across the west Kimberley during Saturday as the low
moves away from the coast.

While gales are not expected tonight, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.

Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the west Kimberley overnight but should ease during Saturday. Flash flooding
and local stream rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause flooding
in the Pilbara due to its rapid movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.

Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:
Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 123.0 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.

The Phantom
User avatar
Posts: 5413
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:03 pm
Location: Canning Vale

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby @weather_wa » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:57 pm

A cyclone warning has been issued for the WA Pilbara coast, even though a tropical low has not developed into a cyclone.

At last report the low was estimated to be 170 kilometres north of Karratha and 340 kilometres northeast of Onslow, and moving west southwest at 37 kilometres an hour.

The weather bureau says the low may develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight and it is possible that a brief period of gales will occur along the west Pilbara coast.

The bureau says there is relatively little rain associated with the low and it is expected to move away from the state tomorrow.

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to Exmouth.

The Phantom
User avatar
Posts: 5413
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:03 pm
Location: Canning Vale

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby @weather_wa » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:58 pm

A cyclone advice has been issued for the WA Pilbara coast, even though a tropical low has not developed into a cyclone.

At last report the low was estimated to be 270 kilometres northeast of Karratha and 180 kilometres north of Port Hedland, and moving west southwest at 33 kilometres an hour.

The weather bureau says the low has not intensified overnight and now has only a small window of time in which it could develop into a tropical cyclone.

However communities from Whim Creek to Exmouth have been warned that gales may develop for a brief period along the coast during the day.

Flooding is not expected and by tomorrow(Sunday) morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to move away from the state.

The Phantom
User avatar
Posts: 5413
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:03 pm
Location: Canning Vale

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby @weather_wa » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:00 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 2:54 pm WST on Saturday 1 January 2011

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to
Exmouth has been CANCELLED.

At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
200 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
280 kilometres north northeast of Onslow and
moving west southwest at 39 kilometres per hour.

The low is moving quickly towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara
coast. Although it has intensified slightly during the day it has not reached
tropical cyclone intensity and has remained well offshore. By 8 pm WST tonight
the system is likely to be around 270 kilometres north of Exmouth and
continuiing to move quickly towards the west southwest away from the state.
Sustained gales are no longer likely on the Pilbara coast although people west
of Karratha should expect STRONG WINDS and occasional SQUALLS during the
afternoon and evening. Winds in exposed coastal locations will be near gale
force.

Flooding is not expected because there is relatively little rain associated
with this small and rapidly moving low.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Whim Creek and Fortescue
Roadhouse, including Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and all other
coastal communities in the above named coastal area are advised to proceed with
caution.



Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.2 degrees South 115.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 39 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

The Phantom
User avatar
Posts: 5413
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:03 pm
Location: Canning Vale

Re: Tropical Low 30/12/2010 - ONWARDS

Postby @weather_wa » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:05 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Wallal to Northwest Cape
Issued at 12:11 pm WST on Saturday 1 January 2011

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 11:00 am WST a Tropical Low was located within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal two degrees South (19.2S)
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal one degrees East (117.1E)
about 95 nautical miles north of Karratha
and 185 nautical miles northeast of Onslow
Recent movement : west southwest at 20 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots reaching 35 knots at times within 40 nautical miles
in the southern semicircle.
Central pressure: 993 hectopascals

Forecast to be within 70 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal one degrees South (20.1S)
longitude one hundred and thirteen decimal five degrees East (113.5E)
about 195 nautical miles west northwest of Karratha
with maximum winds of 40 knots
at 11:00 pm WST Saturday

Forecast to be within 105 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal four degrees South (20.4S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal three degrees East (110.3E)
about 370 nautical miles west of Karratha
with maximum winds of 40 knots
at 11:00 am WST Sunday

GALE WARNING
Within 40 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle, extending to
within 80 nautical miles in the southern semicircle and within 40 nautical
miles of centre in the northern semicircle by 11:00 pm WST Saturday
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots. Combined seas and swell to 2.5m.

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere from Wallal to Northwest Cape
East of low northeast to northerly winds 20/30 knots. West of low northeast to
southeast winds 20/30 knots. Squalls to 50 knots in thunderstorms. Seas 1.5 to
2.0 metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 1.5 metres.

The next warning will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Saturday 01 January.

Return to Severe Weather of 2010

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest