General October Weather 2006

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General October Weather 2006

Postby Vinny » Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:18 am

well as soon as something happens tomorrow it can be posted here
though i don't know what october will bring

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Postby Beef_Taco » Sun Oct 01, 2006 8:34 am

It'll bring some near perfect weather, minus the early morning sea breezes :(!

Few storms aswell, i'm tipping!

Wooo spring! All my roses are budding!!!!!!!

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Postby Beef_Taco » Sun Oct 01, 2006 8:44 am

Anyone willing to bet that this summer will be super hot? $50?

Last year our summer didn't start until Feb...This year it's already starting to show signs of a good summer.

Thoughts?

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Postby Tim S » Sun Oct 01, 2006 8:55 am

so you betting for or against a hot summer Beefy?

Agreed that this early season warmth is a promising sign, got a few warm ones in the next few days too with 27C forecast for tomorrow before a 'strong' front comes through on Tuesday. On that matter this front seems to be a bit of a tricky one to pick with some models going for some heavy falls from it for the lower SW and others hardly any at all, either way seems like it is going to be a fairly decent strength front for this time of year, what are others thoughts?
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby Vinny » Mon Oct 02, 2006 8:38 am

weatherzones synoptic map at present makes it look like a weak front.

the bom says

Tuesday Showers, windy. Min 13 Max 20
Wednesday Morning shower then fine. Min 11 Max 21

though in a few hours it could change to a clearing shower

hey guys remember this time last year we still would have the heaters going it was 6 degrees at night and rain for most of the month!

and no the roses were not budding

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Postby Vinny » Mon Oct 02, 2006 8:39 am

could someone with ability to do so please fix my spelling mistake

to read "General October Weather"

not what it says.

thanks

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Postby hailstorm » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:16 am

At this stage looks like we'll have a nice hot summer . As for this "strong cold front" BOM is talking about, I really can't see it delivering more than a few showers, the satellite image, and models don't exactly scream out "strong cold front", all the action seems too far south. My bet is the forecast will be downgraded to a few showers by the 1130 update

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Postby Tim S » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:23 am

With Cold front classification, 'strong' refers more to the wind speed and air temp change associated with the front and isnt really a measure of rainfall. Quite often we would get more rain from a moderate system as they tend to move a lot slower, though you usaully get heavy showers from a strong front as there is more convection due to the larger temp gradient and air mass change.

Either way I am still not convinced this is going to be a strong front when it reaches us tomorrow, though it should still bring a reasonable amount (10-20mm) to the SW corner and a little less for us in Perth (around 5-10mm).
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby hailstorm » Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:41 pm

I see what your saying Tim. And our suspicions seem to have come true. BOM has now downgraded the front to moderate, and they're going for a few showers in Perth tomorrow. When do you think we'll get our next rains after tomorrow?

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Postby Vinny » Mon Oct 02, 2006 2:17 pm

maybe not till the end of next week??

hmmm http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindeciles.jsp?lc=w00
----------------------------------------
Thursday

Mostly sunny
9°C - 23°C

Friday

Mostly sunny
13°C - 26°C

Saturday

Mostly sunny
11°C - 22°C

Sunday

Mostly sunny
9°C - 22°C

Monday

Mostly sunny
12°C - 24°C

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Postby Tim S » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:38 am

scored 4mm from the front so far :)
looks like a bit more to come judging by the sat pic.
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby Lert » Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:41 am

3mm for me from a heavy shower around 4.30am..

Blowing a gale ATM.. the front must be close. Pity the radars are down..
2006 - 543.5mm, 2007 - 701.5mm, 2008 - 833.5mm, 2009 - 579mm, 2010 - 631.5mm, 2011 - 872.5mm, 2012 - 770mm

2013 Jan 5mm YTD 5mm

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Postby Tim S » Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:17 am

yeah I think it is Mr Lert, Mandurah has just had 8.2mm and is getting sustained 30knot NW so it must be passing through there now, I think. :?
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby Vinny » Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:21 am

so much for a strong front. if this is a strong front what was the front that we got in may last year that caused the tornadoes??

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Postby mikeh » Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:50 am

The radar look pretty good at the moment. A fair bit of yellow kicking around.

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Postby Tim S » Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:03 am

yeah, nice heavy rain here, though rather short lived.

I am trying to work out if this front doesnt have much left for the Northern burbs of if thats just a 'blind' spot on the airport radar. :?
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby Tim S » Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:26 am

well turns out there was some very heavy showers hiding in that blind spot, just bucketed down here in Joondalup, heaviest I have seen for a while, probably about 5mm in about as many minutes. :D
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby Lert » Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:40 am

Yeah, bucketed down here as well, 7mm in the last hour. Hoping there is a bit more in it yet..
2006 - 543.5mm, 2007 - 701.5mm, 2008 - 833.5mm, 2009 - 579mm, 2010 - 631.5mm, 2011 - 872.5mm, 2012 - 770mm

2013 Jan 5mm YTD 5mm

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Postby Vinny » Tue Oct 03, 2006 3:14 pm

still a long way to go if we are going to get average falls

it is quite cool outside at present

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Postby Tom M (Chaser 80) » Tue Oct 03, 2006 6:15 pm

Well to 6pm today I have only got 5.3mm! sad isnt it.....and I have 4 rain gauges to go by! There looks to be a splash more on the radar, which is now working as of about 2.30 I think.

I like the fronts at this time of year cause it doesnt get too cold when they pass thru, or in the cold air pool afterwards :D

I feel summer is on the way alot earlier than last year.....Or maybe should I say at the "normal" time of year.

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