General December Weather 2006

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General December Weather 2006

Postby Tim S » Fri Dec 01, 2006 8:37 am

Well a cool start to summer, got 8.6C at my place but was cooler elsewhere in the metro area, lowest was 6.7C at the airport. Should be a nice warm summer I think. October and November were definitely warm, with October recording the second highest ave Max and November about 3rd or 4th highest ave max.
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby MikeF » Sat Dec 02, 2006 5:13 pm

the next good looking system on the horizon is for next thursday/friday.

The models have slowly been warming up to it over the last few days.

It looks better for us down in Esperance than Perth but there could be storms inland from Perth or even on the coast for a short while.

it appears there will be a cut off cold pool in the mid levels develop to the west of the state and there should be an infeed of moisture in the middle levels.

Its still coming together on the models (specifically gfs) but I have noticed the latest EC run has a reasonable well defined mid-level through moving through with a cut off surface low in the trough moving se across the sw land devision. this would see thunderstorms either coming down the west coast and moving inland around perth or doing the same thing but over the scarp about 50km inland. Either way it is not as certain as it is for the south coast but there is still a chance.

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Postby hotandstormy2006 » Mon Dec 04, 2006 3:49 am

what a lovely day for the 1st day of daylight saving

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Postby MikeF » Mon Dec 04, 2006 6:39 am

It was a lovely day. Had a BBQ sunday afternoon and the weather couldn't have been better.

A bit of a rush this morning with an hour less sunlight before work. My daughter still wakes up the same time though.

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Postby Vinny » Mon Dec 04, 2006 11:33 am

whilst we have cooler weather on friday adelaide will get maybe to 40?

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Postby MikeF » Tue Dec 05, 2006 6:57 am

The system for Thursday/ Friday still looks good but it will be a bit further east than I thought previously. Still looks very nice here with showers and thunderstorms for Esperance on Thursday.

I Like the possible looks of storms for closer to the west coast Monday next week. At this stage they look like they will develop a little way inland but it is still early days yet.

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Postby MikeF » Tue Dec 05, 2006 7:02 am

Vinny, That would have to be from the 38C we are forecast to have on thursday

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Postby Beef_Taco » Tue Dec 05, 2006 9:23 pm

I'm hoping we don't have another summer like the last one where that high pressure system stayed off the coast and wouldn't blow into the bight, causing shitty temps and SW winds.

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Postby MikeF » Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:32 am

I agree with you Beef_Taco

I am thinking though at this early stage the season is looking much better for us in terms of summer heat and storm development than in many years that I can remember (for storm development that is). The troughs seem to be quite transient at this stage and are not staying on the west coast though are still deepening just inland. There is a lot of hot air inland and it is making its way to the coast but just not for long. Though in history there is never that much hot weather for Perth in December. That normally comes in January and February.

The other thing to mention is that the cold fronts still have a bit of go in them which is great for storm development so I am not complaining. It is just that the systems are moving inland from the west coast before they develop which is unfortunate for you guys :(

next week looks good on the models but it is so long out. There looks to be a couple of middle level features moving through during the week with a fair bit of moisture available. We shall see though. I would get the camera ready though as there will likely be something very close to Perth if not over Perth. I know the BOM is not mentioning anything about it in the 7 day forecast for Perth but I have this feeling they will change there forecast either today or tomorrow

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Postby Blue Skies » Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:44 pm

How much rain are they talking about for Friday in Perth? The models look fairly substantial at this stage to me.

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Postby MikeF » Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:09 pm

Won't be much (assuming that you are talking abot the coming friday.

I think in the rang of 0mm to 2mm and an isolated fall to 4mm in the hills

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Postby MikeF » Thu Dec 07, 2006 6:28 am

Love the district forecast fo us today...

SOUTHEAST COASTAL:
Fire weather warning.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing from the north during the morning
and becoming scattered during the afternoon. Possible hail and strong squalls
with thunderstorms. Freshening N'ly winds ahead of a late afternoon or evening
SW change developing from the west.

Outlook for Friday : Isolated showers and thunderstorms.


and the town forecast...

ESPERANCE:
The chance of squally thunderstorms. Possible hail and strong squalls with
thunderstorms later this afternoon. A hot day with gusty N/NE'ly winds, before a
cooler SW'ly change in the evening.


I am feeling that there could be a few good thunderstorms around this afternoon and evening :)

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Postby Tim S » Thu Dec 07, 2006 7:40 am

Sure does look good Chop, enjoy it mate! and dont forget to take plenty of those 'more arse than class' cg shots that you are so good at! :P 8) lol, if only I had half as much arse or class for that matter! :)
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby Tim S » Thu Dec 07, 2006 9:19 am

Hopetoun was 36.2C at 10am! which if you adjust for daylight savings is a 9am temp, which is even more!! :shock: Esperance damn hot too, over 33C at both sites. Hope you got a few coldies and a deckchair lined up for the show later today chop, although all the action is to your east at the moment, it should start building to your North and West in the next 2-3 hours shouldnt it?
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby MikeF » Thu Dec 07, 2006 9:47 am

Yep I reckon your right on the money TimS.

I imagine that the trough is now situated just east of bremer bay and moving slowly east. This would explain the temperature at hopetoun and the pressure which is very low for a trough (1003 hPa) It is very seldom we see the pressure get under a 100hPa on a trough without it being quite active.

I would imagine we should see the first proper diurnal cells are going to start to fire up in the next 3 hours just west of hopetoun.

By the way the cells to the ese this morning looked good with overshoting tops looking well defined.

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SWW - Way Cool

Postby craigperth » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:20 am

IDW28201
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Destructive Winds, Large Hail and Flash Flooding
For people in the Southeast Coastal, eastern Great Southern, eastern Central
Wheatbelt, southwest Goldfields and adjacent Gascoyne districts.
Issued at 10:55 am on Thursday 7 December 2006

People are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms today.
Storms may be accompanied by very heavy rainfall conducive to flash flooding,
large hail and strong winds that could result in damage to property.
The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should be aware of
thunderstorms. As storms approach secure loose items and move vehicles under
cover. If lightning accompanies the storm disconnect non essential electrical
appliances and avoid using the phone. Stay indoors until the storms have
passed. If you are caught outside seek shelter away from trees and metal
structures. Driving conditions will be hazardous. Should flash flooding occur,
avoid affected roads, watercourses and floodways in the vicinity until safe to
proceed.

The next warning will be issued by 2:00 pm Thursday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.
Come and checkout Perth's PAIRUP,
Giving Free Shoes to those who need them
https://www.facebook.com/pairupaustralia/ or
www.pairup.com.au

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Postby Tim S » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:21 am

Over 38C in Hopetoun now but wind swinging round to the NNW which suggests the trough is almost on top of them now, also pressure at 1002.4hpa.

And this:

STW: Craig Beat me to it!


Man i wish I was in Esperance today!
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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Postby MikeF » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:52 am

Man I am happy to be in Esperance today but it is really hot!!!

And howling northerly wind.

Nothing popping up yet but it is still very early. The later the storms go up the better I think. Even it they pop though the weak inversion at 3:30 this afternoon I don't care.

The LI of -4.7 and the soundings this morning point to a very unstable day. There is quite a small cap on it at 1km and after that there is nothing stopping it until 35,000ft and I imagine the overshooting tops will go up to 40000ft about (aviation forecast supports this). I also notice that the sounding is based upon a max temperature of 36C so if it gets to 38 (which it is nearly there) then they are just going to go for it.

That is one of the better sounding I have seen for a long while and I can see why the STW is out for us.

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Postby MikeF » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:58 am

Just for the record...

SOUTHEAST COASTAL:
Fire Weather Warning.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing from the north during the morning
and becoming scattered during the afternoon. Hail, strong squalls and flash
flooding possible with thunderstorms. Freshening N'ly winds ahead of a late
afternoon or evening SW change developing from the west.

Fire Danger:
Oldfield Coastal EXTREME
Oldfield Inland EXTREME

Outlook for Friday : Isolated showers and thunderstorms.

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Postby Tim S » Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:41 pm

Looks like your 3hrs was spot on Chop, starting to fire up all over the place to Esperance's NW! have fun! :)
Kia Kaha, stay strong, live long and above all have fun. :)

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