Severe Storms, Gales SWLD 6-8th Aug (Australind Tornado)

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Severe Storms, Gales SWLD 6-8th Aug (Australind Tornado)

Postby craigperth » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:44 pm

Bummer I will be away for the storms.... off to Singpore for business on Monday and back wed night! :(

Those images Tim you gave the link to the darker area means stronger wind? I can see how it swings to the WNW come sunday / Monday... given the heat in the NW (ocean) that would give a good moist air to feed the clouds/storms? I am told yesterday there is lots of fog arround the platforms off Karratha... Moist air?
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Postby Tim S » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:50 pm

Moved to Sever weather and changed the title slightly :)

Yeah the darker the shading the stronger the winds. Keep in mind these are the 200mb winds, so they are very high, but they do carry high level moisture with them. Dont know what would cause the fog on the offshore platforms, higher than normal sea surface temps, combined with cool moist air or something?

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Postby squid » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:49 pm

i am going to post here for this event now looks liek it may even last untill wednesday.
Sunday Showers increasing. Thunderstorm. Min 10 Max 22
Monday Showery. Windy. Min 11 Max 20
Tuesday Showery. Min 12 Max 17
Wednesday Showery. Min 11 Max 16

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Postby MikeF » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:32 pm

I love that outlook, sounds like fun! dont see the words constant lightning and Esperance anywhere though


Well there might be some pretty good lightning for Perth. I have seen good storms in Perth in August before. Greg Spencer got a photo of one storm in August here..

http://strikeone.com.au/other/gregs.htm

Now that is one fine lightning strike. So it is possible to at least get nearly constant lightning.

Really all up it is looking pretty good

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Postby Turbo » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:01 am

Great Photo!
Looks like a time lapse?

Anyway, Sunday night through to Tuesday is looking good, with a fairly decent system coming through. OCF is going for 60 mm!!

I'd settle for 10mm and a good night time t/storm.

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Postby hailstorm » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:31 am

seems like a decent northwest cloudband is forming so we may be in for some good rains, I'd be guessing about 40mm for the whole event

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Postby squid » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:31 am

hmm they have taken the thunderstorm out for sunday but added windy for tuesday. i will put my rainfall total in for this event and max wind gusts in tomorrow. it looks real good :D

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Postby Tim S » Fri Aug 04, 2006 1:21 pm

Welcome Hailstorm! :)

Yeah I am going a bit cold on this system too, though saying this there should still be plenty of wind and the odd storm, along with very decent rain, by this years standards anyway.

My guess is for 30mm for the Perth metro area, 10-15mm for the Gero area and around the 20mm Mark for Esperance. Heaviest falls will be in the Dwellingup to Busselton region with around 50mm. These totals are for the 48hrs to 9am Tuesday. North & Eastern Wheatbelt will struggle to get to double figures I feel.

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Postby squid » Fri Aug 04, 2006 5:51 pm

Much needed rain on the way for WA
Tom Saunders, Fri 17:44 EST

Showers will continue in the far southwest corner of WA on Saturday but will become heavier and more widespread on Sunday. The increase will occur in strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of a cold front, with showers becoming heavy in the Southwest and Lower West districts. Isolated showers are likely to extend over the remainder of the Southwest Land Division in the afternoon. On Monday the front will cross the west coast, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Division with further heavy falls across the west. A second front will maintain widespread showers along the west coast on Tuesday, before conditions ease on Wednesday. In total over 50mm is possible in the Lower West and western Southwest districts with falls decreasing further north and east to around 20mm in Geraldton and Albany. Warm northerly winds ahead of the front will send temperatures up to 10 above average over inland WA by Monday.

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Postby silvercloud » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:28 pm

I am really hoping we get some good falls out of this. It's a shame there won't be much in the way of thunderstorms, I was really looking forward to a decent display.

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Postby Turbo » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:14 pm

OCF has now cut back its predictions to approx 25mm for the Sunday - Tuesday event. Looks like no T/Storms either. :(

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Postby JuNgLeJiM » Sat Aug 05, 2006 11:05 am

Hey all!

Looking forward to this event!! Should get some nice rainfall totals over the coming days...and the BoM have put Thunderstorms back into the forecast! :D

Forecast for Sunday
A few showers, increasing in the afternoon with the risk of a thunderstorm.
Moderate/fresh N/NW winds, strengthening during the afternoon and evening.

Precis: Showers increasing. Windy.
City: Min 12 Max 20

Monday Showers. Thunderstorm. Windy. Min 12 Max 18
Tuesday Showers, easing. Min 11 Max 17

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Postby Tim S » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:14 pm

Yeah but it has that dreaded word 'risk' in front of it though JJ :) Hope they do come off though, will make a great end to the weekend to have some decent storms firing off and best of all I will be out chasing anything that even looks like becoming a storm :)

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Postby squid » Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:16 pm

good to see that thunderstoms are back on the cards for tomorrow and monday

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Postby silvercloud » Sat Aug 05, 2006 7:22 pm

Yay, lets hope we get some good storms out of this.

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Postby squid » Sat Aug 05, 2006 7:59 pm

well i said last night that i was going to put my predictions in for this event today so here it goes.
50mm of rain for the event
max wind gust 110km/h
and i will put in a torndao in aswell a F1 either in the usuall spots or up the coast a bit more.

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Postby Turbo » Sat Aug 05, 2006 11:20 pm

Some good rains on the way now. Although it seems to be dying out as it gets closer to the coast.

High temps for Sunday (23 deg) should increase the chances of t/storms and tornados!

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Postby JuNgLeJiM » Sun Aug 06, 2006 8:32 am

looks like a wild 24hrs for the Capes :D

Synoptic situation
A complex low pressure system is expected to approach the lower west coast during today and Monday.

Storm Warning
Cape Naturaliste to Albany
N/NW winds strengthening to 30/40 knots during the morning, Squalls to 45 knots. W/NW winds, reaching 40/50 knots Monday morning. Squalls to 55 knots. Seas 4.0m to 5.0m.

If I didn't have to work tomorrow I'd probly head down to Cape Leeuwin lol :P

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Postby mattweather » Sun Aug 06, 2006 8:40 am

Lucky Perth is time!! I just jealous about 55knot winds! :shock:

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Postby Tim S » Sun Aug 06, 2006 8:58 am

Come on JJ it says Monday morning, what time do you need be at work by? :wink: :D I am thinking I may be slightly late tomorrow morning, dont know why but I may get lost on the way to work :lol:

Yeah Matt we get real windy weather over in WA, not like those gentle breezes you get over your way :P

That is the first Storm warning issued for a while isnt it? I am trying to remember the last time, probably would have been at least a year ago :?

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