Changing seasons next week/ Winter predictions

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Changing seasons next week/ Winter predictions

Postby Vinny » Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:01 am

Well according to weatherzone, there is a low and trough coming towards perth next tuesday... do you think in the next week or two we could see the high pressure cells finally head north rather than being south of australia?

the weather forecast for next week is monday late shower and tuesday next week 26 with "windy with showers"

Elders... (i know... totally wrong most of the time) says perth will have a situation as follows

april.... near normal rainfall
may... above normal rainfall
june ... below normal
july...... near normal
august near normal
september ... near normal
october.. above normal to well above normal

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Postby Vinny » Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:53 am

well the bom says 50/50

WA Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2008, issued 28th March 2008
Neutral outlook for WA June quarter rainfall
The Western Australian outlook for total rainfall over the June quarter (April to June), does not show any moderate to strong shifts in the odds favouring either a wetter or drier than normal season. The chances of above average rainfall are about the same as the chances of below average falls.

The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across WA is a result of continuing higher than average temperatures in the southeastern Indian Ocean, and cooler than average waters across the equatorial Pacific in association with La Niña.


The chances of exceeding the median rainfall over April to June are between 40 and 55% over Western Australia (see map). So for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about five June quarters are expected to be wetter than average across the State, while about five are drier.

Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent in a broad band stretching from the Pilbara to the southeast and far eastern interior. Elsewhere in WA the effect is only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).

The La Niña event in the Pacific Basin is showing signs of weakening, although computer models indicate it is likely to persist until about the end of autumn. The 30-day value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +15 as at 25th March. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on any developments please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.

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Postby Beef_Taco » Wed Apr 02, 2008 3:46 pm

Tbh, people never predict right. Whether it be in a week or few months, just take it as it comes.

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