Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast 2010

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Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast 2010

Postby nocky » Fri Jun 04, 2010 8:07 am

As mentioned earlier in another thread I write a newsletter to clients and give my weather prediction for the month as well, I have picked it within a couple of days for the last 3 months and now get a bit of a following so will try and keep my record going in this thread, I mainly work on area from Perth to Albany and out Hyden, so triangle that and see how I go.

This thread is locked so please post comments in the relevant area here viewforum.php?f=34 you will find sections for Northern and Central wheatbelt, Upper Great southern, and Coastal, Lakes District and Lower West

As far as rain from now until next weekend (12th-13th June) I think AdamD will eat his hat (quote from May thread, he would eat his hat if didn't rain this weekend) we may get a storm or 2 in the area today with the mid level stuff feeding down, possible rain on the 8th but a huge high behind the front (1034mb) so will probably squeeze it south,
14th - 19th June is looking great for some good falls and again in the last week of June and early July, strong fronts coming through on these dates, depends on the highs on how much we get, the highs are slowly slipping south and we are seeing a more normal winter pattern developing

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:31 am

Well I got the date right this time and still going to claim my perfect record for 4 months, I know I said rain on the 8th, but always suggested not much, unfortunately the big high held that one out and gave us 4 frosts instead :mrgreen:
Doesn't appear a lot in today's with only 1.8mm in my gauge out of the main front but some more behind, tomorrow and Wednesday will bring a bit more, we should get at least 1/2 inch (12mm to others :mrgreen: ) over the 3 days

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Sat Jun 19, 2010 11:44 am

Looks like something developing Tuesday 22nd and I still think something on the 28th June so handy finish to June hopefully, rain looking good for early July, down side 25th June we have a 0c min forecast so it will be below 0 no doubt, get the extra blankets out.

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Tue Jun 22, 2010 4:10 pm

Maybe some decent falls tonight and tomorrow (22nd & 23rd), still looking like a bit more on 27th and 28th, next good front looks likely around the 10th July with some moderate falls during the first week of July, weather is still very strange for this time of year with the 5th icing in June due on Friday.
The forecast Min temp for Narrogin has changed from"0" on Friday :D to -1c :| doesn't matter much I suppose when it gets that low, - just sounds colder

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:42 pm

Well I'm still claiming my perfect record :P only 0.3mm of rain, but it did rain, the next decent front appears to be 10th of July with a few minor ones before, another front appears to be brushing the coast on Thursday but don't hold out for much, may warm things up a little hopefully

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Fri Jul 02, 2010 7:38 am

Those who got May Greenline Newsletter will remember I tipped rain for July 2 (and also the first post in this thread), wasn't that confident by last week in June, but still it has come, almost 3mm so far, still sticking with a decent rain and front for the 10th or 11th, may have some smaller rain 7-8th but July is looking quite reasonable, unfortunately some more ice weather coming after today with a couple of 0 mins over the weekend and -1c Monday, hope the crops are handling it ok, my Veggies are taking a hammering

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Jul 05, 2010 10:03 am

Finally the planets have lined up and a decent rain is looking likely, the rain coming on the 8th looks like up to 25mm with another front coming through on the 11th, we may get around 50mm for the event, the rain on Thursday looks like it will hit as far north as Carnarvan, hopefully it will continue through to the eastern districts, but all is looking very Promising :)

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jul 05, 2010 10:33 pm

Was sort of out your way the other day PK and things are looking pretty green in places considering the lack of rainfall.
(Brookton)

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Jul 05, 2010 10:34 pm

Oh and how do I subscribe to the greenline news letter?

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Jul 12, 2010 10:22 am

Plenty of good rain so far, another small front coming on friday 16th and then a few fine days until 22-23rd July, looks like another good fall then, I am sticking with Intellicast as they have been pretty good so can't see much after 23rd but other modules predict more between 28th and 1st of August, Looking good for Narrogin to bust July's avg of 88mm, 36mm for the month until 9am this morning and only 20mm behind YTD last year, although 84mm in March bumped that a little

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Jul 19, 2010 12:18 pm

A big high parking in the Bight mid week, a front looks likely to brush the capes and may produce a little here in Narrogin and Possibly as high as Perth but not much inland, following weekend looks promising but more like the 1st August for the next good fall, is hard to pick anything at the moment due to the huge highs still sticking around in the wrong spot, stay tuned

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Jul 26, 2010 8:24 am

The high has moved and unusually a low in the bight :) a couple of small fronts moving through and we should get a bit, hopefully 5mm this week and a good rain early next week, good to not have to clear the ice from the windscreen this morning, the next high coming through is further north than what we have had, so hopefully a winter pattern starting to develop

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Wed Jul 28, 2010 12:21 pm

Well we have 5mm in Narrogin so far this week and a little less to 0 as you go East, Weather Zone 28day suggests nothing next week, I will put my head on the chopping Block and stick with 2nd or 3rd August, the second half of August is looking good, hopefully the little bits keep coming until then, also hopefully we can get a bit out east

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Aug 02, 2010 7:36 am

Looks like my head may be chopped off, the front is arriving but 2 big highs moving in, slight chance of a little bit on wednesday, and now who knows, Late friday and Saturday looking good for a bit also, and then the end of the second week of August, fingers crossed

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Thu Aug 05, 2010 11:12 am

Sad to see another pile of rain just slipping under cape leeuwin, this one looked good until a couple of days ago, if you look at this map http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... njava.html things are looking good for about tuesday, nice cold front coming and some mid level stuff as well, but I have my head chopped off now, so I will sit an the fence and hope I don't get a post up my A***

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Aug 09, 2010 4:56 pm

Well things are looking good for wide spread rain from Wed - Fri this week, Wednesday and Thursday should bring an inch to Narrogin, a big low behind which is a change so hoping the same stuff gets further east but east will get some, Friday is a bit of a mystery, it is looking good for widespread rain but the amount is still hard to pick, Weatherzone (whom isn't my favourite source) suggest maybe another 15mm for Perth on Friday depending on the high behind it all, so fingers crossed for 30+mm this week

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:51 pm

The next decent rain looks likely around the 2nd September, the first week in Sept looks like it will be reasonably wet with a couple of fronts coming through, a few light showers this week and maybe some light stuff the following

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:44 am

Maybe a dribble tonight, but some more late in the weekend but not much, September looks reasonable with rain coming weekly, but maybe not in huge amounts, seems the highs are still blocking things out and keep things cool, picture below may update as the week progresses, you can see a huge high from South Africa to West Oz, behind that though is a low with rain band, if you track that front the synoptic shows it reaching WA about Sunday, maybe as high as Perth

Image

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Thu Aug 26, 2010 9:07 am

The approaching rain is confusing to say the least, a couple of fronts moving through from Sunday to Tuesday, also some tropical stuff feeding in, hard to say if front will draw the tropical stuff as low as here, Geraldton-Carnarvan look like getting a bit from the mid level stuff and that band is predicted to carry on down to the Eucla missing the South West Corner, the first front is predicted to join up around this point, second front coming through on Tuesday looks like a 5-10mm fall for the South West, if the tropical stuff gets drawn in earlier then better falls likely, I still would suggest at least 10mm for the period in the Upper Great Southern which should get to the eastern districts, fingers crossed

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Re: Nocky's Southwest WA Agricultural Forecast

Postby nocky » Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:00 am

Another good low slips by and giving the eastern states some good falls, not much on the horizon unless some unstable stuff comes from the North, some light rain from Saturday - Wednesday, maybe not as high as Perth, Next good fall around mid September, looks promising as 2 lows one on top of the other are sandwiched between 2 highs, but at this stage rain as far north as Carnarvan is looking likely, just have to hope they keep coming, some of the eastern districts are really desperate for rain, hopefully the light stuff will keep things hanging on, the Northern Wheat Belt has had good falls, if the rain comes around the 15th September it will be a good finish to the season, down this way crops have a long way to go

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