Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Feb 13, 2013 7:10 pm

Some pretty nasty storms near Billabong road house today.
radar didn't show much but eye witness says it delivered a fair bit of rain and huge temperature drop.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 16, 2013 7:30 am

I haven't posted as much of the stuff peeps are sharing with us here as I can.

Am trying to do more.

However, the Pilbara has has some epic storms the last couple of days.
Yesterday would take the cake so far.

Have a look at the upper outflow on these:
Radar
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... 1360969380

IR
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... 1360969380

There has to be some serious energy to do that over those distances.

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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 16, 2013 7:33 am

We were sent this via @_HoldThe_Pickle
ImageUploadedByTapatalk 21360971138.475303.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalk 21360971138.475303.jpg (193.86 KiB) Viewed 5406 times


The view from Mermaid Sound Dampier

ImageUploadedByTapatalk 21360971156.279762.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalk 21360971156.279762.jpg (137.83 KiB) Viewed 5406 times

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby silvercloud » Sat Feb 16, 2013 8:02 am

Awesome! I wish it stormed like that when I was up there.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby peterperthh » Sun Feb 17, 2013 12:09 pm

There were storms near Karratha most nights last week. Only managed to get the camera out once, and the storm was pretty far away. Hoping to see some more action this week (with the chance of a storm forecast every day)


Image


Image

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:46 pm

Lightningwog prompted me to check some of the models for the coming week. Have got so bored of the weather I have given up reviewing them all the time. Then, when I drop my guard, Huzzah! There it is.

All but one model favouring tropical activity of the low kind.
Two models favouring the formation of two tropical lows. ACCESS and ECMWF expecting to see them form around the 23rd/24th.

Cola, not terribly interested in much:
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.co&m ... delType=18

ECMWF, keen on two lows:
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... delType=14

Wetterzentrale, favouring one low (or other off chart):
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... delType=16

ACCESS (BoM), favouring two tropical lows to form:
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops. ... delType=20

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:48 pm

Alana Jayne Moore has been tweeting some laid back images from Broome.
Will try to post some up because they have been great.

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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:22 pm

Alana's photos

Going back 4days ago:

Great drive back to
#Broome through #thunderstorms. Torrential rain and lots of #lightning. http://t.co/SuL5UnfK
Image


Clouds exploded all around me on drive back to #Broome from Halls Creek. My favourite sight.. #weather #Australia http://t.co/O7naNRXU
Image

I just love the drive from Halls Creek to #Broome. Colours, wildlife & everyone waves. @austnorthwest http://t.co/PPBBMBqb
Image

2days ago:

Beautiful #sunset from the Sunset Bar on Cable Beach last night. #Australia #WesternAustralia #Broome http://t.co/AkCaCkhp
Image

Cable Beach #sunset, #Broome #WesternAustralia last night. Beautiful. http://t.co/xX76n1qV
Image

Seeing a very big, very noisy anvil of a #thunderstorm just over the way from me in #Broome. Need a car!! http://t.co/KFb7vGGw
Image

Image

Heavy rain approaching from one of the many #storms surrounding #Broome this evening. #WesternAustralia #Australia http://t.co/j9FAm4Ir
Image

1day ago:
Bit of a shelfy approaching The Mangrove over Roebuck Bay. #WesternAustralia #Australia #thunderstorms http://t.co/HqbZrhWq
Image


#sunset overlooking Cable Beach, #Broome tonight. #beautiful http://t.co/Tqtceo2z
Image

Image

A rumbling farewell #thunderstorm is brewing for me in #Broome. #WesternAustralia #australia http://t.co/secnRQrV
Image

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby silvercloud » Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:47 pm

She takes some fantastic photos :)

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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:55 am

Karl Brunckhorst has mentioned that each model run of ACCESS and EC has a system forming but jumping around in its strength and location.

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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:27 am

@Hold_The_Pickle got this from Dampier last night:
Image
Taken from his GoPro.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby peterperthh » Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:43 am

Took these from Karratha last night. Probably the same storm system that Fu posted above.

Image

Image

There was a bushfire burning below the storm which was glowing in some of my photos.

Image

Image

Image

Image

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Pete » Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:23 pm

Great photos Peter! :-bd

Here's something to watch over the next few days.
Image

Cyclone season heats up in the North West
http://www.abc.net.au/local/audio/2013/ ... orthwestwa
The next Tropical Cyclone to form in Australian waters will be called Rusty.

Ironically, it could be heading straight for the iron ore rich Pilbara region.

The Bureau of Meteorology is warning North West residents that there is a strong chance a severe system will threaten the coast before the end of the month.

Andrew Burton, Manager of the Severe Weather Section at the Bureau says the models show there is a sting in the tail of the season.

"There is already some early model guidance indicating that everything is going to be ripe for this one."

Oz Cyclone Chaser Chris Nitsopoulos is nervous and excited about the potential for a significant tropical cyclone.

Mr Nitsopoulos says this weather event is one that his team would like to chase but a lack of funds could hold them back.

"Once we start to see the models align we start to plan our trip to Western Australia but unfortunately this season we don't quite have the sponsorship dollars to chase and document these systems in WA," he explains.

"This year we might have to give this one a miss but if we were going to chase one particular cyclone this season, this one would have to be it."

Meanwhile, the Weekly Tropical Climate Note from the Weather Bureau released today shows the increase in monsoonal activity.

"With the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) now in Australian longitudes, this week should provide relief to parts of northern Australia that are experiencing one of their driest wet seasons on record. Every monsoon develops a little differently, and there is a great deal of model uncertainty in the way this developing monsoon may affect northern Australia. This next burst in monsoonal activity across the Top End may be short-lived. A low pressure system over the Timor Sea is expected to develop as it moves to the southwest and could bring heavy rainfall to northern Western Australia, and hence reducing the chances of a strong northwesterly burst over the Top End."

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby peterperthh » Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:10 am

The models are in pretty good agreement for a significant cyclone off the coast next week.

Of course these things change rapidly between model runs...

Courtesy of http://www.weatherzone.com.au :

Image

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Storm Wolf » Wed Feb 20, 2013 11:10 am

Seeing tentative reports on Perth Weather Live's Facebook that the cyclone may make it all the way to Albany on Thurs 28th. Hope not. Not sure how to share something onto here from Facebook -blush-
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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Feb 20, 2013 3:09 pm

Pinch of salt.

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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Feb 20, 2013 3:12 pm

That's in response to one model run by ECMWF. That's one run, of one model.
Several other models don't share that consensus.
I find it hard to believe a tropical low would be able to maintain air pressure that low all the way across 3000km of land.

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Pete » Wed Feb 20, 2013 4:50 pm

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:23 pm WST on Wednesday 20 February 2013
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 23 February 2013.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak low is located in the monsoon trough near 14S 106E, about 400km south of Christmas Island. The low is moving slowly westwards and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday Low
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate


The monsoon trough lies north of the Kimberley near 13S. A low that is currently east of the Western Region is expected to move into the region during Friday. This low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday. Next week it is likely that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone and impact the Pilbara. People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings. There are no other significant lows and none are expected to develop over the next three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday Very Low
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.



They seem fairly confident this will end up as a strong cyclone impacting the Pilbara coast? Basing those predictions on model runs 7 days out is surely a bit hasty?

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Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Feb 20, 2013 10:07 pm

Karl Brunckhorst wrote:
@TheWAWG 00z run of EC model had it at 890hpa on next Wednesday. Might be over doing it. But still... That's impressive. #TCRusty

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2012/2013

Postby Blue Skies » Thu Feb 21, 2013 7:56 pm

I'm amazed at how fast they've got it spinning up to full speed! Incredible - especially if it comes off.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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