Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:49 pm

Tuesday 31, July 2012
9:48pm

Started off overcast and windy, the rain came in just after lunch but we got heavy showers as the front passed through around 3pm. Tomorrow we'll get occasional showers with hail and thunder possible as the mids are quite cold and conditions will be unstable tomorrow. We could get 25 - 50mm over the next 8 days if future conditions pan out.
Current 10.0 degrees, overnight low 14.5 degrees, today's max 19.5 degrees
Humidity 80%
Pressure 1012hPa rising
Winds NW at 11km/h
4mm rain since 9am

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:23 pm

Saturday 4, August 2012

9:23m

I haven't updated this for a while, been busy with study ect and haven't got round to it, but anyway. It's been a rainy few days with cool temperatures. This weather is set to continue until at least the middle of next week. We should get some decent rainfall totals on Monday and Tuesday as a strong cold front moves though. The BoM is predicting up to 25mm over the next 4 days.
Today started off cool with occasional showers and gusty conditions which gradually eased by midday. Showers cleared by this afternoon, it's partly cloudy out there now with lighter winds.
Currently 12.0 degrees, overnight low 10.5 degrees, today's max 16.0 degrees
Humidity 70%
Pressure 1020hPa and steady
Winds W'ly at 4.4km/h
We've had 16mm of rain since Wednesday last week

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:28 pm

Monday, 6th August 2012
9:28pm

The day dawned clear and windy but cloud began blowing over by mid morning in strong and gusty NW winds that reached over 60km/h. The cold front's leading edge reached us around 2pm and we had some heavy showers but it seems slower moving than they though and it appears that it maybe decaying at the moment. Tomorrow cold air will move up in its wake bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with small hail possible.
Currently 14.0 degrees, overnight low 9.4 degrees, today's max 19.1 degrees.
Humidity 93%
Pressure 1008hPa and rising
Winds NW at 16km/h
3mm of rain today

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:58 pm

Wednesday 8, August 2012
8:58pm

It started off cloudy with a few showers but that gradually cleared to clear conditions this evening. Winds were W/SW most of day but they've just shifted offshore so it will be a clear and cold night. Expect sunny conditions for the rest of the week before rain returns next weekend.
Currently 10.1 degrees, today's low was 7.4 degrees, today's max was 16.0 degrees
Humidity 95%
Pressure 1027hPa and rising
Winds N'ly at 5.1km/h
16mm of rain over the past two days

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:51 pm

Cold pool associated with sunday’s front I’ve been watching a little while - doesn’t look too bad(but let’s face it - been a pretty paltry few to rate lately) nice temps at 850 without being overly spectacular, and there might be enough moisture around when cold air hits for a bit of action.

Only uppers are a bit below the mark I rekonn pity but there isn’t a jet stream forecast from the south that would’ve given it a bit more punch - wasn’t last time I looked anyways. What you think Pete?(somehow I’ve got impression you’re from the land of the long white snow cloud (Correct?). Looks pretty marginal again but might be worth a hoof up the mountain .

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Fri Aug 10, 2012 10:19 pm

I am indeed from the land of the long white cloud (been a long time since I was there) but still a kiwi deep down. :) Anyway, yeah Sunday's set-up looks a bit marginal, 500's are pretty shallow but as you say the 850's are good. Looks like we won't have that deep and cold southerly push that we really need for a good snowfall. I still wouldn't rule it out yet, but I'm not very hopeful on this thing turning out anything overly great.

Today was a sunny, warm day after a cold and frosty start. Winds were light N'lies all day so it was very dry. The fine weather will continue for another day before showers and storms develop early next week with that cold front.
Currently 9.4 degrees, overnight low 1.2 degrees, today's max 19.8 degrees
Humidity 78%
Pressure 1026hPa and steady
Winds NE at 7.5km/h
No rain

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:37 pm

Saturday 11, August 2012
10:37pm

It started off sunny, but high cloud came over for most of the day. It didn't stop the temperature warming up though. Tomorrow will be a wet and windy day with cold conditions. A severe weather warning is in place for Albany so I will post it:
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds with Locally Destructive Gusts and Heavy Rainfall conducive
to Flash Flooding.
For people in parts of WA southwest of a line Perth to Albany. This includes
people in, near or between Bunbury, Busselton, Bridgetown and Margaret River,
Albany, Mandurah and Perth and surrounding areas.

Issued at 9:45 pm on Saturday 11 August 2012

WEATHER SITUATION

A strong cold front and associated rain band approaching the South West of the
state may cause HEAVY RAINFALL that could cause FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING
WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour which could result in DAMAGE TO HOMES AND
PROPERTY from mid to late Sunday morning about the SW district, extending
throughout Sunday afternoon and evening. DANGEROUS GUSTS in excess of 125
kilometres per hour could cause SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY IN
LOCALISED AREAS.

People in the southwest of WA experience a front as windy as this about 5 times
per year.

WHAT TO DO

For personal safety FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises you to trim
branches around your home to prevent them falling on your roof or car. Clear
gutters and downpipes so they don't overflow after heavy rain. Store or weigh
down loose objects around your home or work that could be picked up and thrown
by strong winds, causing damage or injury [e.g. outdoor furniture]. Prepare an
emergency kit with a battery operated radio, torch, spare batteries and first
aid kit. Organise an emergency plan, including a relocation plan for your family
and pets in case your home becomes flooded. For SES assistance call 132 500. For
more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au


The next warning will be issued by 4:00 am Sunday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.



....Currently 14.5 degrees, overnight low 7.5 degrees, today's max 20.8 degrees
Humidity 82%
Pressure 1019hPa and falling
Winds N/NW at 6.8km/h
No rain

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:18 pm

Monday 13, August 2012
10:28pm

Well, that front was a bit of a fizzer storm wise but we did get a lot of rain from it and a small thunderstorm about this time last night. Though the damaging winds did not eventuate. Today was cold and wet with cold, gusty winds. Tomorrow looks to be pretty similar with another cold front moving through during the day.
Currently 7.5 degrees, overnight low 8.1 degrees, today's max 14.2 degrees
Humidity 85%
Pressure 1020hPa and steady
Winds W/NW at 9.9km/h
25mm of rain from that event

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Thu Aug 16, 2012 9:43 pm

Thursday 16, August 2012
9:43pm

Been a cloudy and cold past few days, and it spat with rain a bit in the mornings but nothing substantial. At least the winds were be warmer tomorrow and offshore. Hopefully we can get a decent sunrise with all that high cloud around.
Currently 12.3 degrees, overnight low 10.8 degrees, today's max 14.6 degrees
Humidity 94%
Pressure 1026hPa and rising
W/NW at 7.3km/h
No rain (there was some yesterday I'll put it up soon)

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:32 pm

Hi Pete n' ALL

We have another reasonable front this Tuesday with associated cold pool on the charts. 850 and upper temps look very similar to the one on 13th of this month(btw I didn’t go up the mountain on that occasion because on the morning in question, as the coldest air moved in across the coast, most of the showers had gone - in the wsw stream most showers were confined to the coastal strip. I thought it unlikely many flakes would have fallen)

This current one coming might only be a marginal too but I like the look of the synoptic - a deep long fetch from the south west, stronger winds I’d say and a bit of a jet stream pushing in with the front itself. All positives. Of course uppers are again borderline but just maybe there’s going to be a bit more moisture about.

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:30 pm

Yeah I had a look at the models earlier, but I don't hold a lot of hope for much happening at all. Not unless a decent S'ly push develops behind that front and we get a cold upper air flow. But otherwise... nah.
Anyway it started off partly cloudy with mid to high level cloud. Cloud lowered during the day and we had rain before lunch time. We've had showers on and off most of the afternoon but nothing much to speak of in the gauge. Tomorrow will bring another break from the rain until afternoon.
Currently 12.9 degrees, overnight low was 5.8 degrees, today's max was 18.5 degrees
Humidity 93%
Pressure 1021hPa and rising
Winds S/SE at 11km/h
1mm of rain today

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:06 pm

Have to say I’m much more positive about that front and cold pool .
Since your last post Pete there’s been an appreciable upgrade of GFS modeling for tuesday late and wednesday morning which has held through to todays 00z run. . Ecmwf seems much same on temps and geopotential height for 500. Snowforecast is going for pretty cold conditions for summit right through wednesday with freezing level between 1100 and 1200 in its last few runs. Gfs figures for temps below 1c on the summit for sizeable periods on Wednesday.

Could be a slight adjustment at this late stage I guess, but must be a great chance for a dusting at least .Bom was forecasting a less than impressive set of numbers this morning but now seems to be leaning a bit more towards the other models. Significantly, bom is forecasting a good bit more rain now on Wednesday than earlier, and its reaching well into the great southern in the sw stream. Winds look like being perhaps only marginally more southerly than last cold pool - at least out on the ranges.

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Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:04 am

The trough looks to have moved through. The front should be coming closer to the coast by tonight.

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:52 pm

Yeah, models looking a lot better now, still not confident that we will get snow on Bluff Knoll tonight. We do have that strong SW push overnight and there's enough moisture... maybe.

It started off wet and windy, which just got worse during the day. We had heavy showers and very gusty conditions during this after and evening. At the moment it's cold and windy and it looks like there is more rain on the way. Tomorrow will be pretty much the same.
Currently 12.2 degrees, overnight low 9.0 degrees, today's max 18.6 degrees
Humidity 55%
Pressure 1003hPa and rising
Winds W/SW 44km/h
11mm of rain today

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:27 am

Pete n’all
Knoll Wednesday 22 August
Couple of late developments which didn’t auger well. Firstly bom backed off with the bit of rainfall it had earlier forecast or ranges (on its interactive charts). Had most of it falling well east. GFS was still fairly strong on rainfall. Also water vapour chart animation had amazing mass of cold unstable cloud south of Albany but it was on a trajectory which would possibly take it east of us - more or less suggesting what bom was belatedly forecasting.

Arrived top 7am. Very cold for a few hours - <1c only warming to 3.5c by midday when I left. Strong winds - up to 40kph(rough guess) gusting but most of it from wsw. Long periods of grey out conditions. Light showers of sleet and snow very insubstantial seems to bear out the change bom made.

A bit disappointing - just thought there might be an outside chance of something a bit better out of this system - but a great hike anyway.

A look at later animation of vapour shows the unstable cold cloud mass piroqueted past the southern coastal district without crossing. Thinking about this since I guess the rapid ridging of the following high meant none of it was able to reach much inland.If only..!

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:57 pm

Oh well, better luck next time hey. :) Should be a few more ops before the winter is over, still can get snow in September.
It's a been a cool, wet and windy past few days. Cleared up today to a mostly sunny day apart from high cloud about and cumulus on the Stirlings. We had good falls with that front and wind gusts to 75km/h early Wednesday morning with hail around as well.
Currently 10.5 degrees, overnight low 7.9 degrees, today's max 18.0 degrees
Humidity 90%
Pressure is 1023hPa and rising
Winds SW at 4km/h
No rain today but we had 18mm over the last few days

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:18 pm

Monday 27, August 2012
10:18pm

Yeah haven't posted here for a while, been busy with study and stuff. But it's been a good few days, was raining on Saturday, then cleared yesterday. Expect more rain tomorrow with the approach of another cold front.
Currently 9.6 degrees, overnight low 10.5 degrees, today's max 16.1 degrees
Humidity 90%
Pressure 1013hPa and falling
Winds N/NW at 8km/h
No rain

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Fri Aug 31, 2012 2:27 pm

Well Pete n’all

Here’s another cold pool for coming Tuesday- have to overcome a bit of reluctance to say anything much - rekon too much hype just might jinx it.

However gotta say this one looks like it could easily deliver - a lot will depend on how the event unfolds on and about the day because there are a few differences between the models and the timing does bobble about a bit - but the really promising thing is several factors which were missing during the last cold pool seem to be present with this one - especially very cold uppers, plenty of moisture(at this stage at least) and more southerly winds - fingers crossed that forecasts hold up over next day or so.

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby brayden » Fri Aug 31, 2012 3:27 pm

Yeah no doubt there will be some small hail around hey. Possibly some snow for the Stirlings too
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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby @weather_wa » Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:15 pm

Snow Forecast says light snow from Monday night to Tuesday Afternoon, and snow showers on Tuesday night.

1mm of snow is being forecasted on Monday night and Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Bl ... l/6day/top

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