Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:52 pm

I'm much happier with the latest run of models, they have that cold pool pushing a lot further north, also the 500's are down to -31C and the 850's look promising too. Nice steady decreasing lapse rates on the soundings, so these clouds will have a lot of depth to them. http://soundings.bsch.au.com/tmp/040920 ... 0_4.0_.png Could use a bit more surface moisture, and hopefully there'll be a good SW'ly push with this one. Definitely watching this one.
Anyway, started off partly cloudy today. We had rain periods throughout the morning but that cleared by early afternoon. Reasonably strong convection developed in it's wake and we had heavy showers this afternoon and evening with the passage of that cold front.
Currently 12.3 degrees, overnight low 11.1 degrees, today's max 20.0 degrees
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1012hPa and rising
Winds W'ly at 4.6km/h
14mm of rain today

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:25 pm

While the general push from this cold pool tuesday is sw , out on the range winds look set to be more westerly at least till Tuesday afternoon - west southwest at best. That’s not inspiring confidence - still uppers and 700’s are very cold and like you said Pete the lapse rate is spectacular all the way to 500hPa with a lot of moisture and instability it seems something is bound to give. I’m inclined to think it might turn out to be sweet fa or a sudden dump anytime after the heart of the cold pool comes over us. What do you think Pete do the forecast soundings look like the real deal for snow?

Temps on the summit could be a touch colder (same for 850’s) but I’m not complaining too much- if there are decent cells about the temps will likely drop lower during precipitation. I’m sure there’ll be some flakes about but whether there’ll be much on the ground and how long it lasts if it gets that far is what has me really curious.

There’s a second front Wednesday night which Ecmwf seems to like more so than Gfs or Bom at present though if Gfs is going to give support to the Ecmwf’s prognosis if should start appearing in tomorrow’s model runs.(actually now showing favourably in Gfs 06z run). Traditionally the second or third in a series of fronts is usually the one bringing snow down here - that’s what I’m led to believe. Hmm two trips in three days is going to be hard to manage.

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:07 pm

Yeah, the models look great, but the intensity of the cold pool peeks on Tuesday afternoon. Wrong timing. There might be a residual chance early Tuesday evening until midnight, but otherwise I don't hold a hell of a lot of hope at this stage. We'll have to see how this low behind the front develops, things could still change...

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Mon Sep 03, 2012 3:06 pm

Sunday 2Sept

Yeah the more I look at it now the more I’m thinking the wednesday into thursday set up is the more likely - it’s starting to be reflected in Gfs runs and snowforecast too though bom doesn’t look as concinced yet

That wind direction Tuesday despite the very cold uppers does give me cause for pause. As you suggested Pete there is a chance on Tues afternoon’s band of moisture but by the time the winds straighten up the cold uppers are starting to fall away too and the 850’s aren’t all that impressive - just a slight upward adjustment in them as the time approaches and they’d be pretty innocuous. Temps on the summit look to be a tad warmish too I’d say - anything that falls I dont think will hang about for that long. Hard one to call. Could end up wrong of course despite all that.

ps:just glanced at latest Gfs 00z and it looks good for wednes-thurs but need to examine more closely.

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby Pete » Tue Sep 04, 2012 4:23 pm

SOUTH COASTAL:
Severe Weather Warning.
Sheep Farmers Warning.

Windy. Widespread showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail. Possible snow
fall on the Stirling ranges during the morning.
Fresh to strong and gusty W/NW
winds, shifting W/SW during the afternoon. Widespread damaging W/SW winds in the
west, extending throughout in the afternoon and evening.

Fire Danger:
Stirling Coastal NOT RATED
Stirling Inland NOT RATED

Outlook for Wednesday: Isolated showers, tending scattered with isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:18 pm

There must have been a report on the local radio about a snow fall - I didn't hear it but when I switched on there was a retraction of what must have been earlier wrong information - that there had been no snow till that time(about 12 noon) - so I'm not sure if anything happened up there at all. I talked myself out of going - was a little peeved to see the 850 temp from boms 8am radiosonde came in a bit colder than Gfs had forecast - no suprises given the max today then. I thought later on this afternoon there might've been some chance of snow after the winds kicked in from the sw. Haven't heard anything.

With snow in mind unfortunately the front on Wednesday night no longer seems particularly promising either.

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Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby SimonB » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:47 pm

ABC Radio had a reporter from GWN talking about photos of a 1cm 'dusting' of snow that some guy from Mundaring (from memory) dragged his two kids down there to...
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My Photo Gallery Site: http://simonb.zenfolio.com/ - comments welcome!

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Re: Albany & South Coast: Winter 2012

Postby snowbaby » Tue Sep 04, 2012 8:01 pm

Hard to know what to think then - what I wonder was going on? . The retraction of the earlier information - I only assume it was the stuff with the gwn reporter - was quite specific - something like "there was no snow - we'll let you know if any has fallen". As I mentioned this was just a tick before noon that the announcement was made.

Like I said I thought there might've been a chance in the afternoon - could be wrong of course.

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