Northern Wet Season 2011/12

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Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:29 pm

Keep an eye on the monsoon trough. We should see some activity by weeks end.


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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby lykeeze » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:05 pm

Image

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Cyclone Alby » Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:02 pm

Yeah looks like monsoonal activity is starting to ramp up north...sst's are prefect for cyclone delvopment

waters down here are just like last year around this time, warmer than normal and that why cyclone bianca made its way down here but in a weaken state. colder sst's and wind shear ripped it apart too quick
Margaret River

2011 YTD 1056.2 mm
2012 YTD 716.6 mm
2013 YTD 1174.6 mm :)
2014 YTD 840.2mm
2015 YTD 798.8mm

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Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:59 pm

I posted a heap of links to the various model runs from Oscilmet on twitter. Not easy to repeat from mobile
Check em out peeps. Pete has posted some up as well


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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Tasman » Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:09 pm

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Sunday the 22nd of January 2012
Valid until midnight WST Wednesday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies in the monsoon trough near 12.4S 117.6 E. Activity in the
monsoon trough is expected to increase during the week and the tropical low at
12.4S 117.6E or another low within the trough is likely to become significant by
mid week. The risk of a tropical cyclone in the region increases during the
week. At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be
directly affected, but there is an elevated risk.

By Tuesday next week the monsoon trough may be producing gale force
northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the Indonesian archipelago
including Christmas Island.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Monday :Low
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High



NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby lykeeze » Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:13 pm

wz has a cyclone on charts for wednesdy

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Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Fu Manchu » Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:06 am

BoM did but no longer does.
Possibility of twin cyclones.


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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Blue Skies » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:45 pm

Cyclone warning out now, though. Cat 2 by Friday.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Cyclone Alby » Tue Jan 24, 2012 6:41 pm

Yep that tropical low will be cyclone iggy by tommorrow sometime, should be a interesting week ahead
Margaret River

2011 YTD 1056.2 mm
2012 YTD 716.6 mm
2013 YTD 1174.6 mm :)
2014 YTD 840.2mm
2015 YTD 798.8mm

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby lykeeze » Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:56 pm

is that spinning the wrong way by any chance?

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby lykeeze » Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:57 pm

anti cyclonic , cyclone would be something different

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Blue Skies » Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:25 pm

No, probably not. The outflow at the top always rotates in the opposite direction to the inflow at the bottom.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby brayden » Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:23 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

A Commonwealth and State interagency partnership that provides
flood warning services for the community of Western Australia

Flood Watch
for the De Grey River Catchment
Issued at 11:11 AM on Wednesday the 25th of January 2012
Western Australia Flood Warning Centre

An active monsoon trough is expected to bring heavy rainfall into the De Grey
River catchment during the next few days.

Taking into account the present wetness of the De Grey River catchment and
present river levels, renewed stream rises with widespread local flooding is
possible during Friday and the weekend.

Rain fall reports in the De Grey River catchment for the past 24 hours to 9am
today, Wednesday have been 10-30mm with isolated heavier falls.


FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises people in the area to prepare to
relocate equipment and livestock early. Put fuel in your vehicle and watch
water levels. Some roads may be impassable, obey road closure signs and do not
drive into water of unknown depth and current. Take note of Floodways along
roads, tracks and highways. Floodwaters are dangerous and you should not walk,
swim or play in them. For SES assistance call 132 500. For more safety tips
visit www.fesa.wa.gov.au .

Current river levels are available from Department of Water at
www.water.wa.gov.au

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 213. Warnings, rainfall and river
information are available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/flood
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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby roland985 » Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:15 am

brayden wrote:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

A Commonwealth and State interagency partnership that provides
flood warning services for the community of Western Australia

Flood Watch
for the De Grey River Catchment
Issued at 11:11 AM on Wednesday the 25th of January 2012
Western Australia Flood Warning Centre

An active monsoon trough is expected to bring heavy rainfall into the De Grey
River catchment during the next few days.

Taking into account the present wetness of the De Grey River catchment and
present river levels, renewed stream rises with widespread local flooding is
possible during Friday and the weekend.

Rain fall reports in the De Grey River catchment for the past 24 hours to 9am
today, Wednesday have been 10-30mm with isolated heavier falls.


FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises people in the area to prepare to
relocate equipment and livestock early. Put fuel in your vehicle and watch
water levels. Some roads may be impassable, obey road closure signs and do not
drive into water of unknown depth and current. Take note of Floodways along
roads, tracks and highways. Floodwaters are dangerous and you should not walk,
swim or play in them. For SES assistance call 132 500. For more safety tips
visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au .

Current river levels are available from Department of Water at
http://www.water.wa.gov.au

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 213. Warnings, rainfall and river
information are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/flood


Quick, pipe that water down here! *-:)

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Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Feb 11, 2012 9:15 am

It's been super dry up there so far compared to normal.
Broome especially.
A very short wet?


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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby roland985 » Sat Feb 11, 2012 9:21 am

Fu Manchu wrote:It's been super dry up there so far compared to normal.
Broome especially.
A very short wet?


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Seems to fit with our early autumn.

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Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 19, 2012 9:45 am

Light to moderate falls approaching Broome.
Image


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Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 19, 2012 12:41 pm

According to our unsuspecting Broome correspondent:
"Looks like Roebuck Estate took a beating, trees down all over the show. #Broome Nearly as traumatic as our potplants. I said nearly."


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Re: Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby @weather_wa » Sun Feb 19, 2012 4:15 pm

Squally and heavy storms rumble through WA:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/squa ... h-wa/20650

Josh Fisher, Sunday February 19, 2012

During the past 24 hours, severe thunderstorms whipped up winds of over 100km/h in the WA Goldfields, while heavy downpours soaked the Kimberley.

A broad area of low pressure centred over Western Australia has created very unstable conditions during the past few days, leading to widespread thunderstorms. These storm were supported by strong upper level winds, which led to damaging wind gusts in the Goldfields yesterday afternoon.

Leonora was rattled by a gust to 130km/h as a severe storm cell passed through on Saturday afternoon. This was the highest wind gust to hit the area in at least 10 years.

Further north, tropical moisture is feeding into storms forming over the Kimberley, leading to heavy downpours. Kununurra saw rainfall rates reaching as high as 11mm in 10 minutes. Nearby Dunham Gorge received 59mm of rain during the past 24 hours, the highest total in the country.

Storms will continue across the WA interior and north today and bring the potential of heavy downpours. Over the southern half of the state, storms could again produce strong wind gusts.

- Weatherzone

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Northern Wet Season 2011/12

Postby Fu Manchu » Sun Feb 19, 2012 9:22 pm

Posted in the Pilbara thread ;)

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