NT & Qld Cyclone Outlooks 08/09 Season

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NT & Qld Cyclone Outlooks 08/09 Season

Postby Monsoonal-Maiden » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:36 am

and here is Qld and NT just for future reference:

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Region
Territorians urged to learn cyclone lessons from past few seasons
With the Cyclone Season starting on 1 November, the Bureau of Meteorology in Darwin has urged Northern Territory residents to take heed of some of the lessons from recent years.

"Although the outlook indicates slightly more active conditions than normal, the real message is that we need to have our plans ready during every cyclone season, active or not", said NT Regional Director, Dr Andrew Tupper, from the Bureau's Casuarina headquarters.

"We saw from Cyclone Helen last season that, despite a good forecast several weeks in advance of when that cyclone was likely to happen, even the best science can't always give more than 12-24 hours of the likely track and intensity of the cyclone when it hits. And with Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, we learnt not only that even when you've got a pretty strong consensus on the forecast track, a cyclone's going to do what it's going to do and can also be a threat a long way inland, and we have to be prepared. All people that live or visit near the coast should be making preparations now, listening out for watches and warnings, and should pay attention to advice from the Northern Territory Emergency Services."

Tropical Cyclone Helen, a Category 2 cyclone, caused substantial power and tree damage disruption when it crossed the Territory Coast south of Darwin earlier this year. Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, a Category 5 cyclone, swerved aside from a Darwin-bound track to narrowly miss Maningrida in April 2006, causing extensive damage in the town but widespread devastation of the forest at the uninhabited crossing-point 35 km to the west. Monica also maintained Tropical Cyclone intensity a long way inland, causing significant damage as far as Jabiru.

The Territory's lead severe weather specialist, Ian Shepherd, said that "the Bureau's outlook suggests a possible early start to tropical cyclone activity in the Timor Sea this season, and slightly above average numbers of tropical cyclones around northern Australia. But the signals aren't all that strong." He also urged people who have recently moved to the Territory to pay particular attention to their cyclone preparations.

Details of the outlook for the 2008/2009 tropical cyclone season for the Northern Region:

An early cyclone (i.e. before Christmas) is possible this year in the Timor Sea.
This season may produce an above average number of tropical cyclones around the Top End. In an average year, 2 to 3 cyclones form in the Northern Region. As many as 5 tropical cyclones have formed in a season since records began.
There is an even chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater) during the season.
On average there is around one coastal impact in the Northern Territory during each season.
The 2008/2009 tropical cyclone season outlook is based on high values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), near average sea surface temperatures about northern Australia and recent climate patterns in the Australian and south Pacific region. These patterns indicate a neutral El Niño - Southern Oscillation situation.

The Northern Region incorporates the eastern Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.


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Further enquires can be directed to Ian Shepherd (08) 8920 3821 or Todd Smith (08) 8920 3820, email: ntsevere@bom.gov.au

Additional information:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso - for updates on the status of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/ ... ones.shtml - for a map of historical TC distributions during El Niño yea